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He only posts the high models . You know how it works . Not likely

BDR to ISP flood while Kev and I get sprinkles?

There’s my 7”’s.

New Euro seasonal has potential written all over it. Very wet with coastal storms clearly favored. Temps look to cooperate (only a little AN Nov-Jan) more than one may have thought with s Niño as strong as advertised. Here's a link to the free parameters. Unfortunately, they only go out to January, but if what it's showing holds for next month's forecast, Feb (March too?) should be rockin'. https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A AIFS"]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A["Seasonal"]}

Why sad psv, great news

.25 inch rain and 76F. Cool breezes abound.

3.5-4.5 inches in an hour...

Flash Flood Warning PAC003-007-019-125-129-WVC029-052315- /O.NEW.KPBZ.FF.W.0031.260705T2022Z-260705T2315Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Flash Flood Warning National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 422 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026 The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... Allegheny County in southwestern Pennsylvania... Northwestern Washington County in southwestern Pennsylvania... Northwestern Westmoreland County in southwestern Pennsylvania... Southeastern Butler County in west central Pennsylvania... Southern Beaver County in western Pennsylvania... Hancock County in northern West Virginia... * Until 715 PM EDT. * At 422 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. The expected rainfall rate is 3.5 to 4.5 inches in 1 hour. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly. HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage and low-lying areas. * Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Pittsburgh, Penn Hills, Ross Township, McCandless Township, Monroeville, Moon Township, Franklin Park, Aliquippa, Shaler Township, Plum, North Side Pittsburgh, Baldwin, Murrysville and Hampton Township. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads. Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law enforcement and request they pass this information to the National Weather Service when you can do so safely. && LAT...LON 4064 8052 4066 8052 4068 8015 4068 7969 4067 7969 4067 7968 4039 7969 4040 8053 4064 8053 FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED EXPECTED RAINFALL RATE...3.5-4.5 INCHES IN 1 HOUR $$ Lupo

3k mostly gets CT

18z NAM gets alot of SNE with 3 plus

All I know is the 4 CT northern counties especially northern halves, are dry to very dry . There’s been less than 3” of rain since June 1 in most places . With wagons mainly south on guidance today , I still think coastal CT down to Philly are going to be where any issues might be with coastal CT being less at risk than NYC to Philly/ SE PA.

19z hrrr more like NAM in that regard. Very nice everyone wins scenario

High of only 92. Even dew points are a bit lower. Upper 70's instead of low 80's. Looks like the Raleigh/Durham area are getting some good rains. Should help the reservoir up there.

Yeah, the HRRR develops storms in that general vicinity. NAM Nest develops convection over northern VA

All good. This was since the Friday storm.

Sell. We’ve been in a nice stretch of finding every way imaginable to minimize rainfall here, including last night. Weve seen these setups a couple times over the last 5-6 summers. CT and more specifically western and south Connecticut will get big rains, and we’ll be fighting to keep the roads damp here

Let’s get ISP another foot of rain in a few hours.

By luck I managed to sit next to a state farm insurance agent who had that million mile stare Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

The last 3 days were perfect Eagles weather. 103, 102, and 101 degrees.

Yeah if I had to guess southern CT/Long Island is where the flooding happens.

I had .3 and very little wind. I mean, it rained hard for a minute or three but people never stopped their fireworks. After the heavy stuff it got foggy and they went nutz. The big sparkly stuff is kinda cool thru the fog.

0.64 inches of rain here from last evening into early this morning. More to come.

This evening has all the hallmarks of an overperformer for a select few: Less of a cap at 700 mb Multiple remnant boundaries Pooling of low level moisture (dews have come back up a few degrees) Slightly better shear aloft per SPC meso analysis