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We were busy sucking heat out the sound all night. Low here was 20. Wind stayed up all night. Water temperatures now into the high 30s/low 40s.

Yes, bad luck in the sense of the end result for us and precisely why the thinking of "well I'll take my odds with plenty of chances" is kind of pointless. Big deal if it happens once out of every 100 chances. Why does it even matter what guidance has in the 96-120 hr window...who cares if its showing a bit better with ridging in region x or that its a bit sharper with the lead shortwave, yada yada yada...the end result is generally 99% of the time always going to be the same and that is a reflection of the state and regime which will dictate the final outcome

Yeah i guess. Alot of the world celebrates the holiday in warm weather in reality.

Luck, probability, whatever you want to call it…it’s that. Obviously some winters have patterns more conducive to enhanced wintry threats and some don’t. But in the end I put them on a normalized curve. Most seasons fall +/- 1SD of the mean (I’m talking threats…not snowfall which is skewed). Then you get seasons where it feels like everything hits and seasons where it feels like everything misses. But there’s nothing that climatologically favors the Mid Atlantic over us. Sure, there’s some patterns where it can because of significant suppression, but they’re just getting a little lucky right now (which feels like bad luck to SNE).

Some of the short range models are starting to tick a bit colder for tonight and tomorrow, Hope they are getting a clue in the coastal plain up here, I would like to believe the reggie but i don't.

My thoughts about the long term pattern and late month warm up:

At 6:46 AM EST, Littleton [Halifax Co, NC] Broadcast Media reports Snow of 2.00 Inch

Because of the Christmas shows that always show snow.

The final storm total for RIC was 4.0".

Glad to see you all cashing in

Quad-role.

The fast flow makes us more prone to bad luck because it disrupts attempts at phasing (suppression), and disrupts blocking (cutters/huggers).

Storm total in Midlothian, VA was 4.5”! What a nice long lasting storm!

Yeah, at least it's not windy.

Single or double wrapped?

At 8:00 AM EST, 1 E Yanceyville [Caswell Co, NC] Trained Spotter reports Snow of 1.40 Inch

You average what, 2" at this point?

RIC snow has been finalized at 4.0 inches for December 8th, to bring the seasonal total there to 6.0 inches and shaking up our leaderboard. We now have 13 negative departures at RIC, and @JenkinsJinkiescannot now catch @rjvanalsoverall. @LittleVillageWxis still in the lead, but a combined 1.1 inches of additional snow at RIC and DCA will make @rjvanalsthe new leader.

I'll try to stay safe while expecting snow-

Exactly why we need to get back to patterns which are southern stream dominant with weaker northern streams which phase in...bring back the storms riding up the coast. Forget this whole "we can do well in northern stream" crap. Maybe there was a winter or two where it worked out and that's what people cling too...just like for the longest time everyone was obsessed with weak La Nina's because of 1995-1996.

I'm not wrong. But feel free to go inspect the environmental damage they have been doing. I'm sure it is all top notch construction too like the bridge that just collapsed that was lauded just a few weeks ago

You‘re right about that, this doesn’t seem like a typical La Nina, even though cold decembers do follow the nina pattern. We have three defining features right now: 1) Stratosphere activity 2) MJO activity in phase 7-8 and/or split forcing 3) Strong -WPO Even with a warm up this month, the models maintain all three features and in conjunction they lead to a cold January based on historical analog matches. If - and a big IF - we lose ALL three features by January (strong SPV, MJO 3-4-5, +WPO that scours cold air out of Canada), January will torch like 2006 and 2017. But right now, I don’t see us losing any one of these features.

No one knows. Just have to hope and pray often. It’s all we have, it’s all we can do.

Thank you both for the explanation. I appreciate it!

Seems we are in a warm/wet, cold/dry type pattern in SNE. 42 and rain tomorrow followed by frigid temps, again. SMH