All Activity

I am asking for a clarification

New York City saw its coldest first two weeks of December since 2005. The cold was even more impressive elsewhere: Charlottesville, VA (3rd coldest); Jackson, KY (3rd coldest); Marquette (2nd coldest); Paducah (4th coldest); and, Scranton (5th coldest). There was also impressive warmth in other parts of the northwestern U.S. Boise (4th warmest); Burns, OR (2nd warmest); Missoula (3rd warmest); Pocatello (3rd warmest); and, Yakima (1st warmest). The most persistent teleconnections were the WPO- (which tanked) and the PNA-. Going forward, the WPO- is likely to become less negative, cutting off the unrelenting flow of cold air into western Canada and then the northern U.S. The EPO could go negative, which would blunt the full effects of warming across the northern tier of the U.S. and especially Canada. The PNA will remain persistently negative. The changes favor a Southeast ridge, strong trough in the Pacific Northwest, and a weakening trough over the Northeast and eastern Canada. Thus, the southern tier of the U.S. and perhaps most of the CONUS could see a warmer than normal December 20-31 period overall. The warmup could take time to develop in New England and the upper Midwest. Canada should remain broadly colder than normal for the period overall. The latest Day 10-14 forecast on the EPS illustrates a 500 mb pattern that is broadly what one would expect from the forecast teleconnections during that period. The GEFS is in good agreement with the EPS for that timeframe. Here's the December 22-29 weekly ECMWF forecast: Notice how New England and parts of the northernmost U.S. has near normal or even below normal temperatures. Canada is cold from coast-to-coast. Finally, the GEFS is showing a scenario similar to December 28-31, 2021 where warm anomalies develop in much of eastern Canada. Whether this is something that will occur toward the close of December or a bit later in January remains to be seen. The EPS and ECMWF weeklies keep eastern Canada cooler than normal albeit less cool than shown above through the remainder of December. For now, the EPS is the baseline scenario for the closing days of December. That would allow for some intrusions of cooler air into the Northeast.

LOVE IT!!!!!!! Downtown for NYE in shorts!

AI in general. It's scary what can be done and so quickly. A friend of mine and I took a picture together at a Wolf Pack game on opening night and one of our friends made some AI video of it in two seconds and it was not something rather appropriate...and it looked very real.

Why would AI weather models be dangerous?

Indeed. And even in summer, GFS was repeatedly advertising historic heat waves in the long-range that never occurred

For some reason Instagram's algorthims likes to suggest me AI videos of morbidly obese people falling through floors. I guarantee a lot of people think this stuff is real, especially the grandpas/grandmas.

Are you referring to AI in general or only to the AI weather models?

The eve of New Year’s Eve

It's frustrating to say the least, but call me an optomist..... Pattern doesn't suck, it just doesn't seem to stay consistent enough to make you feel confident in how things will play out, especially looking out past 1 week. Chin up!

This is getting out of hand and becoming dangerous very quickly.

So much fake AI shit now, it’s over the top.

I mostly use social media nowadays for sports news/rumors but even those are a joke. There is this stupid Boston page that does does for Bruins/Red Sox and the authors are a bunch of click bait tools with their ridiculous titles. I wish it could be blocked from my google searches for news/rumors. I'd also like to tell them off.

Honestly, checking weather models and forum updates incessantly probably isn’t the best mental exercise either, lol

Probably 2” total from about 18 hours of snow. Nice appeal, but I don’t want to be beaten down by everyone claiming I should be happy etc etc. it wasn’t a great event. Models beefed up until go time only to be way overdone here. It’s nice for wintry appeal for a few days, but let’s not kid ourselves, this was a pedestrian event outside of the cape. 2” of snow to show for -10 departures for nearly 2/3 of the month is a fail in my book. I don’t care how early it is.

Never had any…and I’m so glad. It’s toxic.

I’ve deleted every social media app. It’s hot trash.

I posted what I did, before I read your last couple posts..:so I didn’t see your clarification, so I stand corrected there. So maybe as Ray said, your winter over post was tongue in cheek.? It’s All good.

Can't argue that they are a long shot or anything else you said, which explains my weenie interest in hoping for something sooner than later! Lol Idk about anyone else, but after it snows, a lot or a little, my need for the next fix is higher than when there's been nothing for an extended period.

Whiplash temps. Going to feel very nice tomorrow.

Agree. If Will disappears, you can probably bet the foreseeable future offers absolutely not hope. and if dryslot is analyzing model runs, I just assume moose fart Maine on the Canadian border is in line for some snow.

I check out X once in a great while..and I regret it every time I do. Same old bs going on, not just weather related. I seriously think being chronically online damages people beyond repair.

The video is out:

Heh... y'all must be new to this social media engagement lol

Are you new here? Lol If it’s positive, it doesn’t matter what form it takes. If it’s negative you get “it’s early” “it can change” “it’s day 10” “you just had snow” and my personal favorite “we just don’t know”.