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Down to 27. I think that qualifies as a hard freeze.

First single digits morning - 9F

26 in Westfield this A.M. 28 now in Simsbury. Also, anyone else having trouble with this site lately?

Briefly hit 32

Down to 22F here in the valley, coldest of the season. Decent cold the last few weeks, hate to waste it

I was laughing at you yesterday. Right under the stand.

Some guidance wants to bring one of the PV lobes into North America. The 06Z AIFS does this near the end of its run, and unsurprisingly is building some very cold air at the surface at this same time. Obviously that is what we would want to see heading into December.

The start year for this has to be 1951 because the November 25, 1950 record is just about impossible to beat out. Atlanta got to 3 degrees that day, and the places where the record low would be got to below 0.

Where do you see the SE ridging?

0z Euro Thanksgiving weekend. Kuchie is a little less, but it's not like we're dealing with reality, so...

Kind of what the 6Z GFS looks like this morning. This is the only time this season I DON'T want snow. I'm on standby for my friends resi snopwplow route, and I do NOT feel like doing it... not on a holiday weekend

Foggy, frosty and 27 this morning.

Balmy 42°

Not exactly sure what is up with these cold mornings and dense fog. 31 for the low, temperature didn’t budge all night.

We obviously know it's just a LR OP run. Pattern doesn't look favorable for snow to me. Too much SE ridging, not enough sustained ridging out west.

Midnight low of 34, 37 currently

So does the EPS

Gfs says otherwise.

I saw this graphic on X from Eric Webb showing the cooling lower stratosphere in the tropics. It seems the trend in strengthening the MJO is likely related to models catching on to the effects of the stratospheric warming as well as the final warming at the south Pole (strengthened Brewer Dobson circulation). Perhaps this is what will finally allow us to see a robust MJO through phases 7-8-1.

26

No surprise. Dallas is getting demolished by waves of torrential rain. DAMN I'M A GOOD FORECASTER! The rain has completely missed us tonight, which in one sense was good for me because it means I got to go out deliver. I am now pretty sure that this curl pattern, which I have learned to recognize, when we have a Pacific front and an upper level low - The Infamous Curl Pattern, in which rain curls around the Austin Metro and around Buda, means little to no moisture for us, and Dallas, Oklahoma and Missouri had better be building an Ark, because this system is very powerful and all of the rain will be channeled across Dallas, probably dumping over a foot of fresh rain flooding the Trinity River and it is gonna take a hell of a lot more than Neo to conduct all those water rescues into Thursday and Friday. A hell of a lot of heavy rain is heading right for Little Rock, AR! Oklahoma is at grave risk as is parts of Missouri. Louisiana isn't out of the woods, not by a long shot. I'll eke out maybe a tenth to a third of an inch, That's all. This is a BAD PATTERN for Austin. I have seen this so many times its not even funny. Welcome to La Nina. This low sun season drought is gonnabe so bad for Texas come the hell summer of 2026 in which the Nina will only deepen. No rain at all for us. Ag will suffer and collapse. Jugs of water will be worth incredible amounts of money by 2030. Food will become scarce as the ugly specter of holodomor starts to loom. This may be a damn good time to get out of the Southwestern US. Where there is no water, there is no life. REMEMBER, BEFORE MOVING TO AUSTIN - THIS REGION IS CURSED. WE MISS MOST OF THE RAIN. Might want to go to New Orleans instead. They are in an historic convergence zone. They get all the winter rains, then in the summer and fall in a good year every last tropical cyclone will ring their bell. Harvey was wonderful! They had plenty of rain that year!

Euro

From Dr. Simon Lee, for those who don’t know, he’s a college professor of meteorology and an expert on the stratosphere, has written many papers on it. Here’s what he has to say:

Looking mild and boring, p rough

EPS also looks good! We take!