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WB 6Z GEFS and EPS thru Day 5. Rain chances moving back in later on Sunday through Tuesday on Eastern shore.

CANSIPS now getting close to a +4C ONI peak…

I buy that for the mid atlantic but even up here? I’m concerned it will be too warm for sustained winter and we aren’t going to get the nickle and dime events we normally get.

Monday looking rainy

Couldn't agree more. Very disruptive and destructive in places.

Pretty classic wet microburst look on soundings if we can get anything to materialize

51.6 this morning. Depth, orientation and slow movement of ULL over OV in opposition to HP off the coast will determine who gets how much rain from Sunday - Tuesday. We need to start August as a wet month! I have only received 62% of normal for July.

After no measurable rain in the last 9 days and the low dews over the last few, the lawn is crunchy. Sprinklers are on full send this morning.

Monday could be interesting. We are juiced to the teets as far as. Moisture goes. If we can get decent shear like gfs has, could be severe in spots. At the least could be prolific rain and maybe decent ltg with those dews.

Monday could be interesting. We are juiced to the teets as far as. Moisture goes. If we can get decent shear like gfs has, could be severe in spots. At the least could be prolific rain and maybe decent ltg with those dews.

I was still editing and added an opening paragraph. This is projected to happen during climate change. I am not certain about seasonal variations, though June 2026 has been quite wet. A Finland publication describing climate change refers to increasing winter rains. https://itameri.fi/en/state-of-the-baltic-sea/climate-change/ This year, January-February were drier than normal in Scandinavia, but March was wetter than normal.

Looks like a typical GFS fantasy storm

Thanks, Don. But do you have any comments on the wet W, C, and N Europe (~+7”/year) averaged out year-round 2016-25 per the map I posted and how it does or doesn’t relate to CC?

Monday seems kind of meh

060 FXUS61 KPHI 311012 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 612 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The timing of the late weekend/early next week frontal system has slowed a bit, with Sunday now looking mostly dry and most precipitation coming in Sunday Night into Monday. A Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall was added for areas along and north/west of the I-95 corridor on Monday. Updated aviation discussion for 12z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Tranquil weather takes over through Saturday though a few very isolated sea-breeze showers cannot be ruled out this afternoon. 2. A frontal system on Sunday and Monday will bring the next opportunity for widespread showers and thunderstorms. Increasing confidence in potential heavy rain on Monday.

warm and rainy

This was the hottest at CAE according to the Euro

Garbage model

What a weenie that kid is. Who’s the Dad?

Thanks. I see that this is calling for the hottest being 101 at CAE, which would be their hottest of the summer to date. This reminds me that I forgot to mention that CAE finally reached 100 on July 28th although Augusta still hasn’t.

The Baltics and Scandinavia are projected to grow warmer and wetter from climate change. The 10-year precipitation anomalies suggest that this process may be ongoing. I am not sure whether it's just winters or overall. June has been wetter than normal this year. In terms of fire weather given the introduction of European data that included Russia, the Copernicus provides data showing that European Russia had near to above normal precipitation during spring 2026. The part that had been somewhat dry during spring saw much above normal precipitation in June. Compare and contrast the surface air relative humidity in Russia vs. France/Spain both in Spring and then June. The data suggested that France/Spain had explosive fire potential given the dry conditions that had emerged there. June 2026: It should also be noted that a wet conditions followed by drought lead to the worst fire potential. Europe saw a severe drought develop this spring. Relevant excerpt from the scientific literature: "The combination of abundant fuel (resulting of the 2025 wet spring; Fig. S3d), exceptional heat, and severe summer drought fueled the intense fires that raged across northwestern Spain last year." https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-026-61756-4

5.2” in Greenfield.

Models are trending towards another heatwave starting late next week