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CAD without a cold airmass is…. Relatively warm northeast flow. Welcome to life away from your computer.

It’s def possible we are cold around Cmas. That H5 look really needs to be further east for us to furnace.

Come to the GTG Lukey. I know the pope wont.

Except for a few days next week, SE Canada is BN the entire time.

It is kind of a gamble, but that’s better than being totally out of the game, which a lot of eastern US weenies will be if the look holds.

Today will be our 15th of the last 16 days with below normal temperatures as our Top 10 coldest starts to December in our history continues. It’s sunny today but clouds will increase tomorrow with snow arriving after 10pm. Snow will continue overnight till around 8am on Sunday morning before ending. The current NWS forecast has between 2" to 4" of snow across the area. We could see some blowing and drifting snow by afternoon across the typical open field and roads. We look to stay below freezing until Wednesday and then finally see a nice warmup with temperatures several degrees above normal through next weekend before we chill down to close to normal levels for the Christmas Holiday.

Today will be our 15th of the last 16 days with below normal temperatures as our Top 10 coldest starts to December in our history continues. It’s sunny today but clouds will increase tomorrow with snow arriving after 10pm. Snow will continue overnight till around 8am on Sunday morning before ending. The current NWS forecast has between 2" to 4" of snow across the area. We could see some blowing and drifting snow by afternoon across the typical open field and roads. We look to stay below freezing until Wednesday and then finally see a nice warmup with temperatures several degrees above normal through next weekend before we chill down to close to normal levels for the Christmas Holiday.

Fight!

Reggie is a nice CJ for PYM county.

What is the Cascades Alex!?

I mean anyone who understands NE weather in winter knows that setup is conducive to CAD . With Eastern Canada in an icebox and NNE buried in snow odds favor a colder scenario by Christmas. Aspeta santus una Padre Santus.

The -NAO look some are desperately banking on is also completely absent cold air in southeast Canada. It’s all in the west. And easterly flow is off >45F SST’s. It’s a complete losers bet to expect N to BN during that window. You’ll avoid a torch but still yield +5

The math does not hold man, I'm literally sitting here doing the testing and its an overfit. My best guess is found a value you think makes sense based on recent record and picked it because it fit observed data. All I've asked you, repeatedly I might add, is why 4" means something statistically and meteorologically. Why did you choose 4"? ENSO is not and never really has been a great predictor of snowfall here.

It feels weird being in the bullseye for this storm. I am still expecting a rug pull.

This warm up has been modeled for a atleast a week now and has universal support from all ensembles. Not sure why posting about what the models show long term would be weenieish lol

I think we're semi-cooked on this one. It just frankly doesn't snow for very long on any of the models and it isn't like this is a juiced up event. We'll try again in January.

LGA is in the same boat. We are talking about daily measurements and not storm totals spanning multiple days. No one said that they were. Just that we don’t get as much snow from them than we used to.

I have 4-5” of snowpack, should add another 1-3 Sunday, hoping we avoid rain at weeks end. Really feels like Christmas. Coldest December I can remember. The Lehigh river is half frozen .

It’s definitely a mild look overall, but with the ridge crest in the Midwest, it does open up the door to some cold air damning events, especially in your typical favored areas.

Wow...getting some pretty good flakes in East Kingsport right now!

Then your methodology is off.

Be nice to some white with the Christmas decorations this weekend

Those three stations are what I'm testing. Again, assumption made that is incorrect. Take an average of those three stations, that's your 'snowfall index'. Bench that snowfall index to ENSO past 30 years and you get a correlation that fails. So other than arbitrarily fitting it to the data, why does 4" mean something meteorologically?

We are taking about local and not regional snowfall observations. A broad brush approach doesn’t always work especially with the wide variation between the coastal plain to mountains areas to the north and west. You need to more narrowly focus the data for the sensible weather from EWR to NYC and LGA for which the relationship is valid.