All Activity

A lot of the warmth in 23-24 Winter was from +WPO. A little harder to connect that to ENSO. Beyond that, are you saying that El Nino has an anomaly relative to global warming, or it's just global warming points - everything is warming everywhere? Does the same work in reverse for La Nina's?

Region-wide installs?

Even the ONI has been having issues due the warming baseline updating every 5 years. So a +1.5 ONI today can have the same actual SSTs and heat release to the atmosphere as a 1.7 to +2.0 ONI did back in the old days. It’s a bit like relying on departures for temperatures as the same temperature these days as the older era will have a smaller departure due to the warming baseline. This can lead to super El Niño winters in actuality like 23-24 appearing weaker on the ONI and RONI due to the warming baseline shrinking the departure. But we saw how strongly the global temperatures spiked with that event along with the warmest winter on record for the CONUS with lower ONI and RONI values than 97-98 had. The all important 500 mb atmospheric response was very close to 97-98. Plus the 23-24 event was so spread out from Nino 1+2 to just west of the dateline that the collective heat release was very impressive than just looking at the actual Nino 3.4 SSTs.

Low of 32. Looking like a chilly day for the neighborhood easter egg hunt on saturday.

Euro has a couple days of 85-90 later next week

Snow !

Shorts and a hoodie

37 here Loving it

Maine

Gawx has pointed out that March 2026 will likely be the most +NAO month of March since 1950. Surprisingly, rolled forward to April and May is not a warm composite April May March to May

Big time warm water is getting going in the western-subsurface. Could help to push the Nino a little further west if it stays under Nino 3.4 and surfaces Nino 4 is warming

33.4, could get a freeze tonight. I'm glad I waited to plant my garden.

Some more fun things Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

here is a gif i made while working on a project that I think people might enjoy. It shows weather station density in PA, NY, NJ from 1930's to present day. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1r4BDH1gMlgvlXgP7s1zNFQnUv9bTeEhS/view?usp=sharing

Update: @RevWarReenactoris out of the hospital but faces a long road ahead. He’s in the care of some good doctors but faces surgery in a few weeks and could be looking at dialysis in the near future. But to be clear, it’s the result of a birth defect, not lifestyle choices. It wasn’t the Big Arch!

https://www.tornadotalk.com/roundtop-ski-resort-pa-ef2-tornado-april-28-2011/ I was thinking about the last time I ever went to my basement. The same cell that dropped the F2 at Ski round top tracked directly over my home back on april 28 2011 right around 6:25am. It was one hell of a storm and it's the first and only time water filled up my window wells and flooded my basement. I just found this article, put together about it on tornado talk from 2021 With images and videos of the damage.

Time to say Goodbye Roger. We will all miss you

Again, the overall pattern is not unprecedented, it's just amplified. See previous winters cited, then add on some AGW. In addition, it makes sense from a climatological perspective as the persistent pattern also produced Juneau, Alaska's snowiest winter on record, one of the coldest on record for Fairbanks, and some of the coldest temps in Canada in several decades.

Is this extreme pattern a result of weather modification or solar geoengineering projects gone awry? Just asking for a friend . I'm only aware of smaller weather mod efforts like cloud seeding done years ago,, but you have to wonder. I mean, the high temperature records broken this winter, and especially this latest heat wave, are smashing records not just breaking them.

these new NAM numbers would have us pushing 70 on Thursday. sometimes that happens this time of year… We’re waiting in misery like it’s never going to end and then all of a sudden it’s right there and you’re like where the hell did that come from? It’ll get cold again, of course, but I think still looks like April 1 is kind of a step out date graduating to a new paradigm along a seasonal change

70 degrees on Thursday! Can't wait!