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No one is saying that…but the point is you were busting balls(and that’s fine)…but that prog won’t even be close to happening like it showed on the 29th now. And a couple days later had cooled significantly as well, and that’s a week out still, so that is still in question too.

Like a Helen Keller dong?

If we got an amped up cutter it could end up 60/60. What difference does it make in the scheme of things? Either it snows or it’s some varying temp of rain over bare ground.

If all else is equal, but it allows for other factors to overwhelm...just as weaker ENSO does. That shouldn't be prohibitive to an intensifying PV and the development of a PT.

Not surprised to see it was during a Nino too where Dec tends to lean milder anyway. I think we had a small snow event in SNE a few days prior to that too.

Sure, But the bigger take away is that they’ve shrunk way way back.

The clipper system that came through the area over the past couple of days was relatively weak, but in general agreement with the forecast, we still picked up close to 2 inches of new snow at our site down in the Winooski Valley. I was up in the Bolton Valley Village on Sunday, where it was snowing at a decent clip, and as of their snow report that evening, they indicated that they’d already picked up 3 inches of new snow. I’m not sure how much more they picked up overnight into yesterday, but at the pace the snow was falling, it seemed like it was worth taking a tour to check things out. Valley temperatures were marginal for parts of the event, and as I headed up the Bolton Valley Access Road yesterday morning, there weren’t any substantial signs of new snow until I’d reached roughly 1,000’ of elevation. After a couple of tours from Timberline’s lower base elevation over the past several days, it was clear that the better play with this system would be to start my tour up at the Village. The cloud ceiling as I ascended was around 1,800’, and above that point, everything was socked in with dense clouds and lightly falling snow. At ~2,000’ in the Bolton Valley Village, I found 1-2” of new snow accumulation. From my visit to the mountain on Saturday, I knew that temperatures above freezing had affected the snowpack, at least up to the 2,500’ elevation. So, the new snow from our small system certainly wasn’t going to resurface that snowpack, but I was curious about what was going on in the higher elevations. The accumulations of new snow did increase the higher I went, but more importantly, at some point between 2,500’ and 3,000’ you reach a level where it’s clear that the temperatures haven’t gone above freezing in quite some time. The snow quality there is excellent aside from areas affected by the wind or some sort of skier of resort vehicular traffic. I did my best to estimate the accumulations from this latest system at various elevations, but once you get up to the point where there’s no consolidated melt layer to mark the surface of the old snowpack, it becomes difficult. In any event, here are the estimates for accumulations I found from this event at various elevations in the Bolton Valley area: 340’: 0” 500’: 0” 1,000’: 0-1” 1,500’: 1” 2,000’: 1-2” 2,500’: 3-4” 3,000’: 5-6” All the snow from these November storms has really been accumulating on the trees, and in places where it hasn’t gone above freezing to melt some of it off, it’s a lot of weight on the evergreens. In fact, I saw several evergreen trees that had fallen onto the trail along the Wilderness Uphill Route. There’s also a layer of ice on the trees that accumulated from whenever we had some mixed precipitation earlier in the month, and that is definitely adding to the weight the trees are bearing. While I was up at the Wilderness Summit, I watched a small section of trees on Ricker Mountain just collapse from the weight of the accumulated snow and tear away a large chunk of soil as they tumbled down the slope. In any case, many of the evergreens in the higher elevations are absolutely caked with midwinter levels of snow.

EURO AI is more promising, keeping the freeze line farther south. It's a favorable setup to keep snow plows busy.

lol. Front is through at that point, but it’s a week out. Whatever helps you sleep. A dew of 55° as we enter December isn’t the end of the world.

Those are rare outcomes. For December, there have been just 5 dates that saw such criteria (1980-2024).

6z Euro held serve and the 6z GFS was another step in the right direction. Warm air nudging in too far north is definitely a concern moving forward, but so far, so good.

A DP of 48 and 61 are worlds apart…as I said, shrinking and muting.

Yesterday’s Euro: phase 8 starts 12/14: Today’s Euro: phase 8 starts 10 days earlier, 12/4, (with a 6+day long phase 8 implied) although I’d want to make sure it isn’t curling back into 7 and staying there:

The dews were always for a day ahead of a couple of cutters.

if looking at RMM, the left of the COD is usually a cold signal as well

One day…as we thought. And I’m fine with that.

I think a big part of the reason we lost the SER in early Dec is the storm system D5-6 ended up much less amped and not like a bomb models shows 3-4-5 days ago. Now of course they try to do the same thing with the ensuing storm, once again I am inclined to lean flatter as that has been the trend seemingly forever. If we don't get a monster cutter into the Lakes or MW the SER will keep verifying weaker in the medium range. The question is if the LR is going too weak on it. If we do blast hard into phase 8, that will certainly help

And even that is muting and shrinking.

I think it is safe to say these haven't been good past week 1. Also, saying anything is consistent day 14/15 is just silly

60F temps or a tad higher tomorrow for wolfie.

I meant for a sheared POS well to the south

Didn’t expect it to. But it’s a couple days later now.

LOT AFD

BC version has it entering the COD on Xmas eve.