All Activity

Mmm.. don't like what I'm seeing at 00z. All models taking a big step to the CMC. Euro now has a lot of mixing. We are trending away from a slider and more to an amped up LP. Going to cause tons of mixing issues and likely rain for East TN. Not a good trend at all. And it's across all models.

Had a snow squall at some point last night. Everything covered

What's going on there between 00 and 06 is that not a retrograde or a transfer to the northwest as the pressure drops ?

Looks to be a big change in the ongoing winter season pattern this weekend/early next week. Considering all the recent abnormal December and especially Christmas week winter heat in 2025. 'Doesn't look like any extreme cold to worry about as ensembles are not gung ho at all on an Arctic airmass plunge into the state or even the surface High and its strength. Even though the AO is going deeper into a negative phase, the AAO (Antarctic Oscillation) remains in positive phase, also. The MJO has reemerged into the favorable latter phases (6 - 8) and looks to remain there the next few weeks at least. So precip odds for the state should get better going forward, and could make some frozen precip over the eastern half of state a distinct possibility this weekend. The PNA should remain in a positive phase as well.

The AI models are all trending south the last 4 runs. This is going to be a big test for them.

This system will accrete a lot of ice in ATL. I like where I am for this. Just cold and windy.

The biggest worry at this point has to be how far amped and north can this get? That HP will help, but it is beginning to retreat especially with the later timing. That phase of the Baja low out west can continue to bring this north some in my opinion. The further west it phases the more it’s going to pump the SE ridge and wanna steer the low track further inland. I would only feel super confident in far Northern NC and Virginia at this point.

It would certainly be easier to shovel. Luckily, for now at least, that model (the Canadian) seems to be on an island by itself showing a near perfect phase that makes the storm so amped it pulls hard north and west and brings the mixing and freezing rain much further into the Commonwealth. .

0z Euro is over a foot everywhere haha!! Let's do this!

Figures the folks to our north are talking about the Canadian a lot, given it seems to pull the storm so far north that the heaviest snows are around DC, with Richmond getting several inches of sleet. I guess we’ll see, huh? .

Euro keeps inching this north. 0z euro brings accumulating snow well north into north central IL. Several inches. Not sure I buy it with strength of high nearby and fetch of cold dry ne flow

It has been a while. I remember this storm. My outdoor thermometer was like 32. 4 the entire event. Just 2-3 miles west was a bad freezing rain storm on the tree limbs in York County, VA. A look back at the 1998 Christmas Ice Storm that devastated Central Virginia | WRIC ABC 8News

duration wise how long? I thought it was going to start some point sun or is it now a monday time frame?

The EPS is loaded for the forum as well with a mean of 5 to 9 inches across the forum. Due to the nature of ensembles, they will usually be lighter and lower qpf than op models, as invariably some ensembles will be light or even blanks.

2025 is over folks. I had already started a 2026 thread for that exact reason (back on New Years Day) here: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/62492-texas-2026-discussionobservations/ So I don't know why posts are still being made in here. And I've sent a request to lock this 2025 thread (rather than just delete it).

Yeah its definitely a setup we haven't really seen in quite some time with several potentially convective waves of winter precip. We will have to see if the pattern holds as we get closer. Still got 4 days. Trying to temper my expectations. lol and I don't want this morphing into a big ice storm. We are in peak climatology for those.

I want to believe.

Yeah it looks like an outgrowth of the original system sliding off the coast. An outlier but interesting. The South better get ready though. They have an HECS on the way.

Yep depth of the cold is the key here. There will no doubt be a warm nose, but experience says the heart of the wedge will almost always verify with more SN/IP. Alluding to that, one thing that stuck out to me on that Euro was the wedge signature starting to show up even at 850mbar. That is deep cold. As a result the sn/ip line held south for longer than earlier runs despite being more amped. Not to mention the potential for dynamic cooling fighting against the warm nose with such high rates possible.

WB 0Z ensembles: GFS, Can., EURO AI, and EPS GN!

Yeah, hoping for sleet for y'all if it isn't going to be snow!

Behind the system at 12z vs 0z.

.

Dec. 2002 was like that here. We got the parfait... Snow, then sleet, then the 0.75" of ZR.

Yep. We had a good one in 2000, but it wasn't this big. I am just praying it all turns to sleet at this point. I don't want any part of that mess.