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Its frenetic as fuck. Fun! GFS has been most persistent, although all over the place from run to run.

AI GFS is closer with Sunday and looks much colder. But after what the GFS did with our snow/rain showers on Thursday and hyped it into a big snowstorm, it’s hard to believe

Re: Weds…18z GFS w a lee side low again on this run. Slight uptick in intensity for E TN folks and Plateau.

Cmc has it at 12z

The Cape storm is centered on the the 19th-20th. Anything else is not mine lol. That's the window I said I liked for a winter storm based on the ens h5 look several days ago now. It has changed some ofc. But still.

You know what model will show it? The GFS. Then it'll keep showing it until the Euro shows it. But the JV CMC and UKIE and ICON won't show it. Then the GFS trends away, then the Euro, and we get nothing. OR The JV models will show it, and we get a 12+" blizzard.

It IS a sloppy phase but also there's no real high in place in SE Canada so probably even in a clean setup that one verbatim is close.

I mean ens seem to like some chances maybe we will get it to go off here soon.

reverse march 2001 trends will happen on the NAM, because it's the NAM

It latched on to the storm fail on 1/15-1/16 before the GFS did. I guess that's not saying much

Its been frustratingly close. I have a feeling...but it might just be this HH bourbon.

It's not Nino = cold and snowy and Nina = warm and dry. If that were the case seasonal forecasts would be easy.

Rains to S Wey?

Icon is doing better than the gfs

Icons thermals are always questionable

The Nina is still going as evidenced by Satellite Imagry. That is still hampering the STJ. IF the Polar Jet can dive to the Gulf as weathernut alluded to earlier, then we wouldn't need the STJ as it should spawn Cyclogenesis. We could be working into the '95-96 Pattern if we start seeing that happen. Miller B to Miller A Transfer's. Hybrids. Hopefully, the mean Trough becomes far enough west to support the disturbances diving down the Front Range and Plains to the Gulf. If blocking is strong and we make it to MJO P8 , with a weakening Nina this could become a probability imo.

Here we go! Be up to 6” by tomorrow lol

Icon trended west but the boundary layer is torched, so it’s rain. Running out of time to turn this into a snow event down to the coast.

See? You don't know how to interpret ensemble guidance. Stick to the op runs and go from happy to hissy fit every other run.

WB 18Z GFS

Gfs little better as well.

wow.... can you say.....snowPLOW! thats a long driveway!! you can get a plow cheap on marketplace. I got brand new one that was for an Exmark Tractor (for free), and cut mount bracket apart and fabricated it to be a front pin mount for my UTV. Works like a charm (minus my less than stellar welding), and it's saved my back a ton when at cabin. Hoping you get to use your blower Thurs.(not sure why i said Friday earlier other than I friday on the brain as i may have to travel from Etown to Lock Haven to Mansfield that day.) Then I'll just stay up north and play w/ my plow. I'll turn the negative in the the positive.

It just trended west on the icon. Whats running out of time ?

We’ve had a ton of mid-range rug pulls so…