All Activity

Isaias is already a bit lopsided to the east, but the center is secluded enough from both shear and dry air to continue to intensify. Maybe a small eye pops briefly, honestly the analog may be Sandy before Cuba landfall (at least in regards to a potent late season core surrounded by synoptic fuel). Isaias will be getting ripped apart upon landfall, but it will gain significant strength before doing that. Also the jet streak equatorward entrance region is going to fuel baroclinicty over the SE US. Not to be slept on, the tornado threat on the right side is going to be significant. Isaias will have a ton of energy to be conserved as it gets absorbed by the trough as landfall occurs, this will be an impactful event

Can’t believe that was six years ago already

If this one gets retired too, I suggest we just slip that letter before we tempt fate again. This is a lil eerie.

980.3mb extrapolated. Pressure falls continue. As the deep convection continues over the center we are probably on the cusp of significant intensification, even as you see some more hostile conditions on the western edge of the system. It's a race between this current intensification trend and when the conditions ultimately disrupt the center.

Looks like it's an AI vs physics model battle for the path of the storm in the Gulf. Google Deep mind apparently sends the remnants over East Tennessee/Georgia and the Carolinas. Other AI models lean more that way too. The physics models have it moving towards Memphis to the NW. Middle Tennessee looks to probably get a lot of rain with either path. The west or east side gets more or less depending on track. Gonna be interesting to see which one is better and if the AI models are able to outperform the physics based models this fall and winter. The NHC seemed to note that Deep Mind has been doing very well and shifted the path rightward some just based on it.

Waiting on one more center pass before going to bed...

Doesn't seem like a prick to me. I am enjoying my evening, thank you. Off to bed now. Us losers who live in the woods have to work for a living.

Better than dying on a hill to defend a complete prick. Have yourself a lovely evening.

Have fun dying on a hill to defend Howard's bullshit.

I would love to but I don’t think we would get along very well. Have a great evening defending a horrible human being.

Lol, oh yea it’s definitely not relevant in your eyes.

A loser in the woods lol. True to form from you. Come visit.

Not relevant. I have seen plenty of your posts over the years.

Dude you’re a loser living in the woods, stop trying to bully people. It sure as hell won’t work with me. So simmer down.

You don’t even know what the comment was, so STFU and stop your holier than though BS.

You can see in this IR image that the environment isn't pristine, but there's just enough of a window to allow for the inner core to take shape. Now we're in the intensification phase and if the core can remain shielded from the shear and drier air to the west this has a chance to become a major before shear takes its toll on Friday. As for impacts beyond landfall, meaningful rain continues to look likely up and down the east coast, as the remnants of Isaias seem to get caught up in a subtle trough and get kicked eastward as it gains forward speed post landfall. It doesn't look like flooding rain, but I think we need a little more time to get a sense of the rain potential. What continues to be interesting to me is the potential for at least some favorable conditions for severe storms, especially if the timing ends up a bit slower and the mid level center passes to our west during daytime Sunday. From the SPC: For Sun/D5, the shortwave trough and remnants of the tropical cyclone will generally move northeastward toward the Appalachians and toward the Carolinas and southern Mid Atlantic. It is possible that the upper system outruns the unstable warm sector, but at least a low end chance of severe is not out of the question.

I bet there are plenty of people here who think this vile post would be more appropriately directed at you

Does anyone know who has more Stanley Cups or playoff victories? Asking for a friend And yes, tell the friend the Capitals won tonight

As if you never make 'lowlife' comments. You are the king. gtfoh.

I’m happy you do, because you’re a complete douchebag and have always been one. I have a good memory and ill never forget your vile, lowlife comment. Now crawl back into your hole because nobody wants to hear from your pathetic ass.