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I created this for the Monday (12/8) wintry threat for mainly NC and VA so as to leave the longer term for the main Dec thread.

Yes. If we are going to have the negative fantasies, then we should pair them with the positive fantasies.

LR ensembles have done poorly with the AO/NAO since the beginning of November. The GEFS 7 day progs are usually pretty darn close to reality but the last 2 sharp drops werent modeled well and the recent one was totally missed. This is the primary reason that LR "warmups" havent materialized. Right now ens seem to agree on a flip positive for both the AO and NAO. That would support a warming trend into mid month. My gut says there will be a relax but how much and for how long is hard to get a handle on given recent trends. My guess is blocking will redevelop before the end of the month so the warm period won't have legs if it happens. Personally, I'm leaning towards blocking coming back and another period of decent wintry weather before we close out the month. Fits the pattern personality we've been seeing so far.

I mean 384 hrs/16 days out…it’s fantasy/clown, but ya, thats a stout Hi pressure to the north there, 1035mb.

The 12z icon has increased totals as well. A degree or two will make a lot of difference with this event. Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk

Been a minute since I’ve seen my outdoor furniture like this

Regarding the Januaries overall in the NE US following the last 11 -ENSO -PNA Decembers, only 2 were mild (2017 and 2023) while 3 were within a few degrees of normal and 6 were cold (1984, 1985, 2009, 2011, 2014, and 2022). So, 3 times as many mild were cold. *Edited for correction: 6 Jans were cold, not just 5.

Was just about to make a post regarding that. Yes, It's exactly for that reason that the anomaly charts should always be used and the reason they are the ones always referenced. For instance, you could take a year such as 2009-10. Very well known as a modoki el nino year. Well if you look at the raw velocity potential, one could say strong forcing stuck at the MC. While the anomalies will paint a different picture entirely.

I saw that. Hopefully the gfs comes north some. I want to visit black water refuge tomorrow but I need that snow to come north.

Fully agree - as currently forecats that looks to be some moderation by the 18th, but plenty of cold to the north as mentioned.

Unimpressive here. Got down to 31.6, so it wasn’t likely enough to matter.

Ha slow progress towards later sunsets we're at 4:29 now - for those who enjoy a bit more light, anyways.

I complain about my area quite a bit but idk if anyone has been in the screw zone across the entirety of the southeast moreso than Charlotte. Truly feel bad for snow lovers in that area. Extra salt in the wound that Raleigh is about to score again.

No a majority of clouds , can start to see some snow cover in the mt's

Every met on Twitter keeps preaching about this pattern and to ignore models etc… yea uh… there isn’t jack shit to track… seems hard to ignore how boring the rest of the month looks

Wouldn’t that transfer?

12z HRRR is further north with the wave for Monday. Gets SW/Southern DC burbs on the northern edge of precip. An inch or so for S MD over to the lower eastern Shore.

Made a comment in the office on Friday that we may see a lot of last minute adjustments this winter as this is the kind of pattern where that happens. Shoulda taken my own advice. Monday was indeed *not* off the table completely and my original thought from last week is going to end up being at least partially correct. Still looks like a grazer, but it's going to be close for the southern end.

Unfortunately it rarely does.

Last year the Euro seasonal run in December had above normal for January and last January ended up well below normal.

Its a beautiful snowy morning here, definitely a very nickel and dime start to the season. Its been white since Nov 29, so no complaints there. But idk if I'd say its true spread the wealth. For the most part the highest amounts this early season have consistently been focused in the same general area, the same area that did so poorly last season. Its a classic example of mother nature smoothing the mean for that area.

yeah, the anomalies are always more useful

Just an awesome winter stretch so far. Cold- snow - freezing fog

I was thinking some more about the question of where do you want to focus on for the VP. I assume the ITCZ location is the main driver of that, which obviously varies a lot and isn't always +/- 5 degrees. The map I posted earlier kind of shows this too with much of the stronger forcing south of the equator near the MC. I'm also thinking more about the idea of the raw VP vs anomalies. Since the water is always warmest near the MC isn't having a standing wave there in the raw the climatology we would always expect? Like doesn't that almost always exist? And anomalies might be more useful because they show the deviations from that standing wave? I don't know, just thinking a lot this morning If you use the equator to 10S band it looks MC focused the next week, then becoming more incoherent.

And that’s totally my point…don’t need a bomb on op runs at 6-7 days away…sure, it’s fun to see, but anybody who’s been here for a while, knows that will come and go at that lead. Whatever is there will re-emerge soon.