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3k is the much more likely scenario. Most towns get .50.-2” and a few get a bit more . And it’s got the jack where you’d think it would be to the NW. Also notice it lost that ridiculous Noreaster it had. So many wild tweets and posts about a July Noreaster lol. It’s a closed ULL over NY state. As boring as it gets unless someone sees a spinner or something

Agree

No wonder I'm in a severe drought...this spot is always a regional min.

Here’s this

I went up there not too long ago driving around. Did you go fishing or to park?

Setup's even messier than I imagined a couple days ago. The evolution of convection is going to be wild today...

I think this oppressively-humid air feels great (for 5-10 minutes) when I've been in AC for a while. I get cold inside.

ahh yeah I didn't check the 3km yet. Something like that is exactly what I am trying to envision happening. You can see too how that really hammers the lower Hudson down to around Newark...could be some serious flooding down that way.

That was a nice storm around 130am. one big clap of thunder and some really good lightning. Picked up.64' out of it. Just missed the core by 3 miles.

3k nam shows what you're saying

u tell 'em

Someone for sure, but how widespread of an area? That's what I'm a bit iffy on. Could be the Berks that get smoked in this.

negativity? More like reality Move to Key West or Mumbai if you want this crap year round. We celebrate all 4 seasons around these parts. One of the nastiest mornings in recent memory today. Forgive me if I’m yearning for Fall as the calendar flips to August.

Maybe this will cheer up Birds... John Bolaris Pitches a Weather Podcast with Cecily Tynan - Crossing Broad

Strong dynamics for late July. Seems like someone will get crushed to me.

wrong but we hope it's so right....give 'em 6-12" and call it a day

ready 2 convect

Lighting up

Lloyd Harbor, New York (Suffolk County) yesterday evening. Perfect day.

That little storm popped up by Harvard IL really fast. Going all the way up to Watertown WI. Now to see if it expands at all West.

The fog is the heaviest precipitation I have had in awhile…

Given the much larger WPAC pool than 1997-1998, this makes sense. Many decades of steady ocean warming since then. So it also would not be a surprise if the stronger WPAC warm pool resulted in less ENSO cooling than 1998-1999 to 2000-2001. We could even see this event linger longer into 2027 due to how much ocean heat will be accumulating in the ENSO regions. It will be an important case study on how the tropical Pacific responds once the +30C warm pool gets pushed so far east of the Dateline which has never happened in our modern climate. It would be interesting to know why we couldn’t get WWBs this strong in 2015-2016 and 2023-2024 to really tap the expanded WPAC warm pool until now?

I don’t know what’s going on here but this outer edge of drizzle has been hanging on for about 10 hours now. I would think (since no models have any idea of what’s going on) that you may be entirely right. Not feeling overly optimistic about anything in Michigan anyway.

We can only hope this is a preview of winter in the temp department.