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Reporting from St. Louis this morning. Out visiting our daughter and son-in-law. 39deg here this morning after a high of 93deg yesterday afternoon. Whiplash. But look at this reporting station: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UP801&hours=72 They are at 29deg have had a 62deg drop since their high of 89 yesterday !

This summer forecast is from pro-met Travis Hartman of Vaisala Xweather. I received this yesterday free of charge as I’m not a paying client. “What kind of summer are we walking into? For 2026, the early answer is: another warmer-than-normal season in the US and Europe with important regional caveats. Ocean signals point to warmth A major driver of the expected heat is the ocean. Global sea surface temperatures remain historically warm, and the North Atlantic is firmly in its positive multidecadal phase, also known as warmer-than-average Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (+AMO). In plain terms, the Atlantic has been running hot for decades, and warm oceans amplify heat on land. A warmer Atlantic tends to pump up the Bermuda High, helping lock in warmer conditions across the Eastern US. Enter El Niño—but with nuance Models suggest that El Niño will develop through the summer. Historically, El Niño can take some of the edge off the heat in the Midwest and East by shifting the jet stream. But whether that cooling influence is realized depends on an unlikely character: West Pacific typhoons. Their recurving paths can tug on the jet stream in ways that promote cooler conditions across the US. Fewer typhoons, on the other hand, leave the hotter background state unchallenged. And recent decades have seen a trend toward fewer summer typhoons overall. So, what does this mean for 2026? The forecast calls for summer 2026 to rank as the 11th-hottest since 1950, with the strongest confidence in significant heat across the West and South. The Midwest and East are the wild cards—torn between ocean-driven warmth and the possibility (but not the guarantee) of El Niño-related moderation.”

I think he meant it as a joke, not sure? I don't think any of the regulars here want to merge and sort through a bunch of NY nonsense. Nothing going on, so be it. A slight observation here and there is fine. There will be severe threats...how many, who knows? Literally during the summer months, really nothing going on besides severe threats which many times pop up immediately during the afternoon hours. Other than that, nothing to say besides "It's hot as shit again"....

It looks like we did have a quick spinup yesterday evening in the extreme part of the county and adjoining county (Huntington and Wabash), from radar appeared to be a cell merger. I was one my way back from Ft. Wayne, so didn't have time to get that far south with the speed of the storm movement. I mentioned to the local Skywarn group that it should have been T-warned, but never was. One of the spotters got down there to collect some large hail off of the ground as it sped away. The Director who took my job after I retired is meeting the NWS survey team down there this morning. That was one part of the job that I miss is doing storm surveys.

Meanwhile Fairbanks -21 mtd IDListSearch Station:AURORAFAIRBANKS MIDTOWNFAIRBANKS 4.4 WCOLLEGE OBSERVATORYUNIVERSITY EXPERIMENTAL STATIONFAIRBANKS AIRPORT #2FAIRBANKS INTL APGOLDSTREAM CREEKCOLLEGE 5 NWESTER 5NEFOX 2 SEESTERGILMORE CREEKFAIRBANKS 11 NENORTH POLE 1NNORTH POLEFORT KNOX MINEFAIRBANKS 18.4 WNWKEYSTONE RIDGEEIELSON FIELDTWO RIVERSMANCHU ALASKACARIBOU PEAK ALASKA Go Restore map Climatological Data for FAIRBANKS INTL AP, AK - March 2026 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Sum 130 -743 - - 1989 0 0.30 3.3 - Average 5.0 -28.6 -11.8 -21.0 - - - - 32.5 Normal 23.5 -5.0 9.2 - 1450 0 0.34 2026-03-01 -15 -49 -32.0 -36.4 97 0 0.00 0.0 37 2026-03-02 -9 -46 -27.5 -32.2 92 0 0.00 0.0 35 2026-03-03 -1 -43 -22.0 -26.9 87 0 0.00 0.0 34 2026-03-04 1 -38 -18.5 -23.7 83 0 0.00 0.0 34 2026-03-05 4 -35 -15.5 -21.0 80 0 0.00 0.0 33 2026-03-06 15 -12 1.5 -4.3 63 0 0.16 1.6 33 2026-03-07 11 2 6.5 0.4 58 0 0.13 1.3 33 2026-03-08 8 -7 0.5 -5.9 64 0 T 0.1 35 2026-03-09 -5 -30 -17.5 -24.2 82 0 0.01 0.2 34 2026-03-10 -8 -41 -24.5 -31.6 89 0 T T 33 2026-03-11 -7 -41 -24.0 -31.5 89 0 0.00 0.0 33 2026-03-12 1 -40 -19.5 -27.4 84 0 0.00 0.0 33 2026-03-13 -2 -36 -19.0 -27.3 84 0 T T 33 2026-03-14 4 -27 -11.5 -20.3 76 0 T 0.1 32 2026-03-15 6 -32 -13.0 -22.2 78 0 0.00 0.0 32 2026-03-16 4 -16 -6.0 -15.7 71 0 0.00 0.0 32 2026-03-17 0 -29 -14.5 -24.8 79 0 0.00 0.0 32 2026-03-18 -5 -40 -22.5 -33.3 87 0 0.00 0.0 31 2026-03-19 1 -33 -16.0 -27.4 81 0 0.00 0.0 31 2026-03-20 12 -19 -3.5 -15.5 68 0 0.00 0.0 31 2026-03-21 16 -24 -4.0 -16.7 69 0 0.00 0.0 31 2026-03-22 20 -18 1.0 -12.3 64 0 0.00 0.0 31 2026-03-23 12 -26 -7.0 -21.0 72 0 0.00 0.0 30 2026-03-24 20 -24 -2.0 -16.8 67 0 0.00 0.0 30 2026-03-25 22 -19 1.5 -14.0 63 0 0.00 0.0 30 2026-03-26 25 -20 2.5 -13.8 62 0 0.00 M M 2026-03-27 M M M M M M M M M 2026-03-28 M M M M M M M M M 2026-03-29 M M M M M M M M M 2026-03-30 M M M M M M M M M 2026-03-31 M M M M M M M M M .

I guess I could have made this post weeks ago, but with respect to @Blizzard of 93I decided to wait despite having strong feelings that winter was essentially over weeks ago. I guess there are 2 distinct ways in which one could grade this winter: "Grading on a curve" - grading the winter based on the pattern heading into it and on a lot of met's projections for the season Grading it "straight up" - based solely on what happened regardless of expectations No one opinion is wrong or right. We're grading on our own observations, perceptions, expectations, etc. While there certainly is objective (data) information available, it's still a subjective call for each poster. That said, here's my thoughts - I'm giving winter 2025-26 a final grade of B-. I considered anything from a C+ up to a B and landed in the middle. Main factors that I used to arrive at my final grade: Snowfall: snowfall was slightly below normal at 22.4". It's hard for me to grade snowfall higher than a C, which is average, when my total was below normal. Still, we had weeks of deep, solid snow cover and that created a very memorable stretch of true winter weather. Final snowfall grade is a C+ Temps: temps were below normal, often well below normal during the heart of winter. And those temps helped maintain our snow cover. Unfortunately, the pattern flipped on a dime in late February and March has seen some ridiculously warm weather. Since it's a part of our winter season, I'm grading the temp at a B+. March: March has been awful. And I need to be careful of recency bias, but while it's been a wild month with Tornado Watches, Severe Thunderstorm warnings a plenty, sharp cold fronts that resulted in snow flying just a couple of hours after being in the 60s...there has been very little in terms of snowfall and the month has felt more springlike than anything else. There hasn't really been any legit threat of snowfall now for weeks on end. The dud that this winter has ended on brings down the overall grade somewhat. Personal perception: See above regarding recency bias, I will say that coming back from Florida on January 28th at midday with temps around 10 degrees, deep snow cover, snow blowing all around despite the storm having occurred 3 days prior and then enjoying the snow for the next few weeks...we had an amazing stretch of winter. One that we very seldom have any more. It was a lot of fun in here in December and January and right into early February. Factoring all of that, I'm at a B-. Curious what others have to say...

In 2023 and 2024 the Atlantic SSTs were the warmest they have ever been.. I don't think we are in -AMO cycle, it's too soon off of that. In 2026 Atlantic hurricane season thread, I smoothed out long term AMO, and found it's still in ascending phase, although data is missing since 2023. Last year and this year in the overall trend look like just a small wave down.

The creek by my place is running normal for this time of year.

Yes, ENSO state is connected. It has about 0.3 correlation between Nina/-WPO and Nino/+WPO. The EPO doesn't connect with SSTAs nearly as much. The EPO might be the hardest index to predict in advance.

It's amazing to wonder what this global ATM 2-meter T curve would look like if SE Canada and NE's numbers were removed from the average -

Finally out of the drought here in my part of the Poconos. Received about .50" of rain last night with the front. Hopeful the rest of Pa can continue beating away at the drought conditions in coming weeks.

Not my scene, just thought it was neat

6.2 inches in March to .2 now Steep drop.

In Eric’s defense, it’s not just him, it’s several other people, including some other big name mets. The point he’s making is that record breaking El Niño events tend to tip their hand very early in the season. The super Ninos of 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16 all tipped their hand in March/April. It’s his opinion that this one is doing the same thing. Could he be mistaken? Of course. By late June/early July, we should know for sure which way this event is headed

Love APF. When I truly reach the point of AWATT I will be somewhere down there south of RSW with the iguanas.

Finishing up with .63" of much needed rainfall. Next post will be my 2025-26 winter synopsis/grade. @Mount Joy Snowman - my high for today will be 72...

Thanks, Ray. We all know that there’s lots of uncertainty this far out. It’s his bombastic style of Tweeting as if there’s little uncertainty about a super Nino that I’m noting just as he did in the first half of Jan for a supposed near record strong WWB that never occurred. @snowman19was the first to point his bust out. By the way Eric never acknowledged his big bust on Twitter.

Another March reversion to the new 2020s milder and less snowy mean. March Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 46.6 46.6 2026 46.2 46.2 2025 48.1 48.1 2024 48.5 48.5 2023 44.9 44.9 2022 45.2 45.2 2021 45.6 45.6 2020 47.9 47.9 March Monthly Total Snowfall for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0.2 0.2 2026 T T 2025 0.0 0.0 2024 T T 2023 0.6 0.6 2022 0.8 0.8 2021 T T 2020 T T March Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 42.9 42.9 2019 40.9 40.9 2018 40.4 40.4 2017 39.8 39.8 2016 49.1 49.1 2015 37.7 37.7 2014 37.8 37.8 2013 40.3 40.3 2012 51.3 51.3 2011 43.6 43.6 2010 48.2 48.2 March Monthly Total Snowfall for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 6.2 6.2 2019 9.9 9.9 2018 13.2 13.2 2017 9.4 9.4 2016 1.6 1.6 2015 16.3 16.3 2014 0.2 0.2 2013 8.8 8.8 2012 0.0 0.0 2011 2.2 2.2 2010 T T

Current temp of 53 is the low with .49” of rain. Midnight highs have been killing us this month.

We wintry next weekend?

Topped out @ 76 yesterday. Temp at midnight was 63, now down to 54 as of 8AM.

At this time, especially with the seasonal transition underway, one has to be cautious about such events given model skill limitations. The "spring ENSO barrier" in prediction remains real. By early summer, the picture should be clearer.

I remember that very well, it started out at 81 at my house and was 48 an hour later when I was in Hauppauge.

Once again, JB’s bombastic prediction of a huge return to deep winter, “delayed spring”, arctic cold and snowstorms in the east, from 3/15 through Easter Sunday looks to be a monumental, epic fail. I’m sure he will never acknowledge it and simply move on like it never even happened just like he does every year…..

I was completely wrong in my March prediction. My saying that KNYC would not only average at least 5 degrees below normal with no temperatures higher then 56 degrees, looks laughable now!