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The 12z EPS and GEPS have this as well. AI models can be sketchy for sure - completely unknown. I am not sure they are actually "learning.". I like the EURO AIFS better than the AIGFS(seems not overly rigorous) FWIW. The 18z GEFS continues to trend the rest of the other ensembles w/ the eastern trough. The good thing is the EPO ridge moving into position is almost 7 days out. I will feel a lot more confident once it sets up shop. The NAO has verified as pretty strong...so good sign modeling is handling blocking well. We have definitely tracked patterns which fizzle. Let's hope this isn't one of them. We have also tracked many patterns which eventually verify. Good info on the ENSO and PDO regions - thank you!

Maybe google atmospheric block- there are several types. A NAO block is a Rex- poleward ridge/ equatorward trough. It forces the flow to buckle southward and that places the baroclinic boundary further south- meaning storms develop/ take a more southward track.

Yes, but what I did not understand is that the blockage is not a simple consequence of the existence of the the geopotential height anomalies, but rather some additional factor which causes the patter to remain stationary.

Before I retired from the local Emergency Management Agency, I prayed for 8-12" (besides being a ). Serious accidents go way down because people can't drive like maniacs as they do when there's only an inch or two. Usually the worst issues are fender benders, slide offs or getting stuck. A slick interstate with only a little snow? Carnage.

EURO is showing almost 1-2 inches for Sunday.

? So much doom and gloom on here. Weren't you Mr. Positive recently? Don't let the naysayers get to you. It takes ONE storm..... Just one! If we get to mid to late February and it is still like it is now, then ok. I'll jump from the cliff with ya.

Meh

December 2025 tied Central Park's record for the highest monthly minimum temperature for any December with a monthly mean temperature below 34.0°. Fun fact: 15/21 (71%) of those cases prior to 2025 had seasonal snowfall of 30" or more, including 9/21 (43%) with 40" or more. Just 1/21 (5%) had less than 20" seasonal snowfall (1958-59 with 13.0").

I'm philosophically opposed to parsing operational at D10+ but I am curious; I would describe this as a +PNA but also a +EPO: there's still a huge area of low heights in AK. Would that be accurate?

A 'block' = Atmospheric block= features(ridge/trough combo) remain in place for a significant period instead of just moving along in the flow.

Dude once again, you did absolutely nothing wrong and you're playing an extremely dangerous game of internet victimhood culture with people that are truly ratchet in the real world. The internet's a crazy place man. I am truly more concerned about you right now then, the people that you're worrying that you offended. Really try to let that sink in tonight. Not one single person in this forum, is worth 1 oz of your happiness, sleep, or wellness in your tangible, quantifiable life no matter how great people in here might think that person is. I have no doubts, that the statement that I'm about to make will be met with a fair and understandable amount of denial,but the internet and this forum, is full of people that pretended or convinced themselves they were offended because they find enjoyment in your suffering and all the attention it brings them, from the like-minded mob. Their gig will completely be up soon brrother and people all over the place are standing up to it now. Be part of the solution, not the problem. Get healthy brother, I'll be praying for you.

Sure about that? Because this is what it has headed for us 5-6 days later. Lol

Dulles received 0.1 inch of snow this morning, and so here is the updated table, which shows a decreased departure for all entrants of 0.1.

So what you're saying is it's not the pattern of the geopotential height anomalies that cause the block, but the fact that the anomalies are stationary? That tells me that I know even less than I thought I did.

I answered it above. A block means a ridge/trough combo(eg rex block) that remains stationary/quasi stationary. A transient dipole does nothing to help our cause unless literally everything is timed perfectly.

at least we have football.

9

I second this question. I have heard many comments to the effect that a ridge over Greenland does not equate to a block, it's the dipole between the ridge and the 50/50 low. There is a big dipole there. Well it is a bit south and west of 50 N 50 W, but it's not really that far.

Down to 11.5 and dropping.

Bama at least lost to decent teams and had good wins. JMU and Tulane being in it is a joke.

To me its just wonky and not a useful block. Not really a block at all. That's a snapshot but everything is in motion. That trough over the Canadian Maritimes becomes a ridge a day later. That's probably what's meant by 'open Atlantic'. Shit be moving- no block in the flow.

The thaw next week will feel nice.

I don’t mind them but I wish they would compact them and use more of December.

Carver, ultimately we will see if the aifs ensembles are really that good compared to everything else. I still believe too many models to content with lol

I would think you had more than that if I had around 9. Snow sublimation has eaten a lot of my snow.