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these set ups favor ocean/monmouth and long island, not us. we get a few inches, they get buried. we can drive a few minutes south though to see it all....that is, if this even amounts to anything. until the day before, i'm no longer all that excited; and even then, sometimes it doesn't pan out; look at the last one. struggled to make 3 inches....

Nice visibility drop with this squall

I just wanted to say one thing real quick. There is no problem. I just made an off hand - objective - comment in the beginning of this thread it wasn't antagonistic or anything, saying many got a first snowstorm already (and i include some of MA in that as 3-6" is pretty solid) and Methuen is still waiting. When you said EASTERNMASS weather, i just responded in kind joshing back with all caps. There was no hostility or ill will whatsoever. And the title can be whatever, please let's not qualify every single title with except for and not limited to or whatever. Its nbd. It's all good - trust me. I, as well, do not want to clutter up this thread and make it a dumpster fire like the last one, so let me just contribute this. Will was talking about the AI models, while they shouldn't be used soley or trusted, having them on board this time and at least trending better is a green(er) flag. Here's the last 4-5 cycles of the EC AI and GFS AI.

Scooter shit streak.

I do like the mean trough position on this look. We have two shortwaves and the kicker might be key here…we want it to dig to help raise the heights ahead of the first one. It will have some destructive interference, but a little bit of that is okay otherwise we’d be trying to rip this north into the Hudson valley. You can see all that vort energy string out ahead of the storm over New England on the op euro which is a problem…it’s preventing downstream ridging to allow this storm to gain latitude

12z EPS similar to the op- a little worse than the 6z run. Nothing earth shattering.

typical for the dust bowl climo states

Today is Wednesday and the storm is Sunday Monday right? So if we step back from the extremes and the overreactions to one run, then isn’t the modeling telling us that this set up has high ceiling potential. And it’s trending slowly better across the suite of models. That just means that the chance a significant snowstorm for at least some of us is increasing a bit.

Looks like 10-15% support the GFS

12z Euro/EPS definitely not good up this way... the energy was to positive tilted. Hopefully 18z and 0z trend towards GFS.

MU Weather Center @MUweather The talk of the town is now Sunday’s potential storm. However, the main players remain unchanged from today’s system. With no blocking and no 50/50 low, I’m not biting on the nonsense shown on today’s GFS run. A flatter, weak wave and progressive system is most likely (EURO).

Imho, it’s getting close to a good time for someone to start a 1/18/26 storm threat thread. Other opinions? 12Z EPS mean looks very nice for many though of course many others won’t like as is almost always the case; regardless this shows there’s plenty of spread still: 12Z EPS members:

I'm definitely thinking about it... I've still got three years until college, though, so I'll see where life takes me and reassess throughout the next 36 months

Arguing with yourself here? I've always been of the belief you two are the same person. The Dr. Jekyl and Mr. Hyde of the NYC forum.

Very subtle differences in the wave interactions(vorticity phasing) but that's all it takes in a situation like this. Bottom line is the shortwave turns neutral/negative later(too late) than the GFS. More runs to come and we will see somewhat different interactions and thus outcomes. Fun stuff eh?

yep - better for everyone. I have youtube TV which doesn't have a deal with MASN, and then the games had been blacked out on MLB.TV. So I couldn't watch any games unless they were national broadcasts (which wasn't often the last few years lol).

AI GFS Ensembles

CMCE agressive

Central/East NC and SC are in a really good spot at this juncture

Fighting off the urge to call this an 80's January because it's missing the little nickel and dime snows that let them scratch out 6"

... so who's gonna tell him

Actually it was February 1991. January 1991 was +10 for 10 days during the month. February 1991 hit 60 degrees or warmer 5 days! 50 plus 11 days!

except he posts GFS (won't happen) nobody knows he's just trying to rile things up! We all know where we stand

Offensive line and TE are need(s) which I think Howie will address. AJ is a ticking timebomb so that may be another area as far as receiver...