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57 / 55 marine fog to burn off and setup a nice 6 hours of sunny / warm mothers day before clouds / cooler return for the week. Mon - Wed and Thu - cool / cloudy and wet 0.50 - 0.75. Tuesday brief reprieve. By Friday we should be setting up an overall nice period next weekend with moderation to a warmer and persistently above normal period by the 19th. The period 17 - 24 could see next shot at >80 and 90s. Ridge into the east to close the month on a warm to hot aide.

.38" here last 24 hours. Some winners and losers across the area.

Yes I seen that too and there was one in Lebanon County also. Shame as most of these orchards these people own are their only source of income.

Might be seeing the formulation of a heat wave in the D9-12 range. Obviously, given that time range this is highly speculative... but it is speculation born of recent clad trends from both the index suggestions, and these operational versions. More so the Euro and CMC, but at least ( shockingly so) the GFS is willing to let go of the winter anchoring curvature characterization of the hemisphere in lieu of more seasonally appropriate retreat of the polar jet. Anyway, the polar indices are non-interfering, whist the PNA goes negative and once into deep May+ ... any time really, but that is am early warm departure signal. CMC is a Sonoran heat release, btw Heat wave in the extended or not, there are really coherent seasonal changes occurring this week in the general tapestry of the guidance. It's always interesting to me to track these trigger weeks, year to year. They come at different times.... some years earlier or later. It's basically when blue line on the charts escape to deep Canada, and the gradient in the non-hydrostatic heights ( the other lines ) slacken in gradient. This next 60 or 72 hours could very well be the last of the frost risk trough incursions, Lakes to NE region..

I forget the name, but a Lancaster County one is closed for the season.

We leave for Alaska Thursday. I guess it’s time to start following that wild weather lol

Heard yesterday a local orchard very near me had significant damage from the frost and freeze a few weeks ago.

48 for the low and foggy. picked up .29” of rain yesterday.

Yeah…. Stein has become an annual thing. Absolutely destroyed my lawn last year. Downright murdered my new grass and I don’t think I mowed from like July yo September.

Low of 48 with .11” of rain. Happy Mother’s Day to all the momma bears out there!

I checked them . That one on Pond st had .31

Points taken, Chuck. Thank you. And further south down in the SE only 2015-6 averaged downright mild due to Dec. The others were pretty close to normal or even cold if you were to include 1957-8 and 1965-6.

Nope

384hr on the mean has a respectable ridge

Ok, I was just basing it on the SOI. I'm sure those reconstructed events aren't too far off though. Still a point though, that the opposite of Strong La Nina's is not matching Strong El Nino's.. relatively small number of samples. they are both anomalies of the same thing so should reverse each other. I think filter out the NAO and extreme-east based events and Strong Nino's aren't as warm in the East in the Winter as people think.

Indeed, pre-1948 were largely reconstructed but Webb’s table as well as JMA (which calculates them a bit differently) both also have 1877-8 and 1888-9 as super Ninos and many assume they really were without questioning them. His table has 1911-2 peaking only at +1.2 and 1914-5 only at +0.9, both way lower than 1877-8 and 1888-9. JMA has 1911-12 slightly stronger but still only at +1.3. It has 1914-5 at only +0.5. So, the odds are high that 1911-2 and even more-so that 1914-5 weren’t super Ninos.

^Yeah, we now have >+6c on TAO/Triton below Nino 1+2, which is the highest of the event so far This is as the 1st Kelvin wave is far east though.. I don't know that the mean doesn't happen further west. I'm thinking basin-wide like 15-16. (I guess technically it's the 2nd Kelvin wave as the first one happened mid-Winter.)

6z GEFS in the long range is also building a ridge. This has been on the model for the last 4-5 runs now, for the last week of May

Negative H5 dropping into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes, progressing east, is our best Summer pattern for storms

A classic east-based event is unfolding as the Kelvin Wave begins to surface at the coast of South America along with the associated thermocline/sea level response ^ “Sea Level and Equatorial Waves 09-May. In the context of the precursor signals of El Niño, a Kelvin wave has begun to arrive at the coasts of Ecuador. Among its first effects are the rise in sea level (20 cm), deepening of the thermocline... “

Area stations here at the new Pit1 are less than .25. It was still a cold and miserable day--typical spring day on the coast. I really wish I were at a point when I could be worrying about the TOTAL DISASTER which is the lawn here.

I'm getting hyped. More fuel for storms. This cool, dry, windy pattern is turning us into the Colorado Plateau. We need more weather like what we're having today.

Yeah mid level deck is moving out…just gotta mix out the low level crud. 47.6°

Looking at stations S Wey area had .31-.42 We knew

Some showers and iso storms today. Otherwise nice day when this burns off.