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There's a touch less interaction and it's colder at 78 than the prior run at 84, but it's really splitting hairs from the looks of the 12z RGEM at 500.

It's not really about positioning of the high pressure. It's a wall of them, just about 1040mb all the way across back to Montana. People are looking at the max and assuming that's the whole high pressure center.

icon 12z is a big hit

Rufus looked like it ticked slightly south at the end of the run. Still a mixed bag of precip for most of TN though.

You know, I made a facetious remark in the fall that our winters have been terrible since the Patriots started sucking. Maybe there’s more of a correlation than I first surmised lol

Pure poetry

Take a look at the 12z NAM vs GEM after 72. NAM is amped. RGEM is much flatter. Again, short range models at range...buyer be warned.

Met, I don’t disagree with you at all here man. It’s awful at 84. I was just making a point that the ingredients are sort of baked in for this setup much earlier. The interaction with the trough over Montana and the Baja low is how we’ve arrived at this point - which isn’t happening that far in the distant future. Modeling confidence for that interaction is only increasing each run.

RGEM is showing a wide stripe of sleet with a more narrow zone of ZR in the deep south. Once it is in range, it will be a key model to watch

Comparison is the thief of joy and in a vacuum we'd all be happy with the (current) modeled outcomes, but surprised you can't appreciate why someone in SoMD wouldn't be as happy as you might be right now. I think we'll all be fine but some folks are more on the edge here for totally understandable reasons.

I can’t believe there are trees still standing in northern MN

Was 10 in Fallston at the farm this AM.

That sprawling HP is sick. The thing we dream of when looking for a major winter storm.

It’s a pretty extreme setup. The thermals are optimal for wringing out a lot of moisture. In a more standard setup, you’d prob keep it more conservative if you didn’t much coastal/CCB stuff. But this is a prolonged overrunning with higher end WAA/Isentropic glide so you can do very well from that alone.

At 78 compared to 06z, looks like we have better confluence out front. Phase looks maybe a tad more disjointed, Baja low not getting pulled up in front of the NS protrusion to the NW as much? Overall not a huge change but not gonna get amped to death past 84 I think…

I mean god! it's so frustrating dude. I typically wish stage 3 reproductive cancer on anyone but this motherfucker is trying my patience -

The main difference in the models overnight was the piece of energy over Alberta. It is acting as a kicker, scooping out the baha low and phasing in behind it. This allows the SLP to gain some latitude and get into the interior deep south before transferring offshore NC (This will happen due to the cold air physics). Pretty much a classic Miller B vs the more Miller A setup we were seeing 24 hours ago. For a snow scenario in the south, you ideally want that PV lob to be stronger and sitting over New York, vs southern Canada. This will bring more WAA aloft (aka more ZR/IP). It could also setup a screw zone in the area around/outside the CAD pocket. (Or non-screw zone if you like have heat/power). NC IMBY -- Since this will be a 48 hour event, the hope for snow in NC, per my thinking yesterday, is we get a wave of WAA snow/overrunning far out ahead of the main SLP. This would allow for some snow before the WAA aloft kicks in as the SLP draws near. Otherwise this will be sleet/ZR fest for the favored areas.

Rgem has better position of the hp. Almost moves east in tandem with the slp following right below. More cold press east of the OV.

12z RGEM h5 and precipitation at 84

Is this where I can extrapolate the NAM for February 2?

lol this place is never happy

The resolving of long wave features that the EPS and GEFS typically can reliably provide inside 10 days was absent. That was the rug pull. In just 6 runs inside 6 days the EPS is looking completely different in synoptic evolution. The lead wave is a side show. Everything moving to the trailing shortwave for us in the east.

We can send @Masswxto do the job but unfortunately his dad told him the pattern ahead is not good, cold and dry, so he is working on his spring training swing already…

Remember it very well too! Hi Res NAM 48 hours out started spitting out stupid numbers for Lebanon ranging from 27”-35” at times leading up to it. Measured 32” when it was over .