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Most of the ensemble members are pretty deep with this storm. QPF extent will be muted on ensemble means compared to what likely happens with this. I don't think it would take much to have a large storm that even impacts inland areas further N/W of what guidance currently shows.

It’s all fun and games till you throw your back and hammies out. Im sore as hell.

Here we go. May the odds be in our favor. Euro has begun

If you’re looking at the jet, probably want to look a little higher, like 300 or 250mb. The GEFS puts other low off the coast pretty much directly in a textbook spot, left exit of the jet where diffluence is maximized

Winning. Though would have changed smoking causes weenie anguish haha

I would hit that

Crazy how GEFS and EPS are trending in opposite directions. We don't usually see that.

This one is fun. I see a few of my friends in here.

How many more ticks do we realistically need? 1? 2? 3?

something like this?

The basketball program is an embarrassment and sticks out because almost all the other programs are at least competitive. Been waiting since I was a little kid to see any positive momentum. Every time it looks like they are moving in the right direction....it falls off a cliff.

This rhetoric is disappointing. Years of bad winters has softened the NYC weenie as if left to bloat in the stagnant water of a Nathan’s street cart. We can do better.

Gefs trend.

Snow showers this evening? HRRR and NAM and Gfs continue to suggest we have a shot

My limited training and knowledge says this is where initiation should start. Up tight to the coast

I don’t remember offhand but it’s a good model. Believe surprisingly CMC did best with the last storm. It was always the most northern model and ended up being accurate

They still managed 106,000 for the playoff game in similar conditions. They'll get a good crowd. At this point, with how the wrestling program has teabagged the field, I think you could put the Resilite on the 50 on Saturday and get 100,000 people. Couldn't pay me to go inside to watch basketball.

Even the far OTS solutions are very, very close to something much bigger and potentially major in nature. The devil is in the details, and the fact that the feature that eventually turns into our ULL Is currently over Hudson Bay/far northwestern Quebec means that physical data collection is probably sparse, at best. a lot of time, and minor alterations like the orientation of vorticity rounding the ULL will make a huge difference here. Sit back and enjoy the ride. One way or another, it’s going to be a roller coaster the next few days

What is the Apple weather app saying? It nailed this past storm

Anyone got a light?

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Remember guys Models made a big change last week at 0z tue night models. Im waiting for tonight 0z runs to see if any changes. Today is just noise imo til 0z tonight

Pretty sure there's ice there now since the ice shelf has expanded with the cold. Time 2 get skiing or snowshoeing? Jeb walk on the ice shelf incoming

so, about that GFS run