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Unfortunately, with atmospheric conditions progressively becoming more favorable with each passing hour, I do not see a scenario where Melissa does not efficiently achieve its MPI. Land interaction or internal structural changes are the only limiting factors until it's picked up by the trough in a few days. I also like to add, the angle of approach and slow forward speed might also add to Melissa undergoing intensification on landfall. Frictional induced intensification, with the higher terrain forcing Melissa’s core to remain compact and tighten up on final approach. Theres just no scenarios remaining that are “best case scenarios”. No matter what scenario is on the table, each one is equally catastrophic and devastating.

Uh-oh.

Unfortunately, with atmospheric conditions progressively becoming more favorable with each passing hour, I do not see a scenario where Melissa does not efficiently achieve its MPI. Land interaction or internal structural changes are the only limiting factors until it's picked up by the trough in a few days.

Struggling to find a scenario where this isnt a Maria/Mitch level catastrophe for Jamaica and the current tail radar/IR look is not helping that narrative.

lol we have had threads started for “snowstorms” modeled farther out then that. Let alone banning them.

Sadly, there’s a lot of analogs Melissa compare to and they all are not good analogs. I spent 2 hours plugging in all the data to ChatGPT and interestingly enough, it says Dean (2007) is a very similar analog. Completely forgot about this storm. Though it did say Melissa’s intensification and structural evolution mirror Deans. But then I get to thinking and yes, Maria came to mind.

Don't knock it till you've tried it.

In other news though, 6 inches of blowing snow on Mt Bachelor is underway with more coming down!

Of course it does. 1128hr has a cutter into Toronto with 3" of rain and temps in the 50's.

No, it can stay weak

969 mb, 111 kts flight level wind It is nearing cat 3.

This has the feel of Maria before it hit Puerto Rico.

Aunt Balls Uncle

Good for surge, catastrophic for rain and subsequent mudslides. Think about 30+ inches of rain that is not going to get absorbed by the ground but just flow down the mountainsides down into the coastal plain areas. All those green areas are going to be flooded.

Time for a rant about getting missed. OK last night we eked out 1.5 inches. But tonight we were supposed to get another 2 inches. Those storm are 5 miles away. I can see them! We are gonna miss by only a few miles. I just covered my car with a tarp. Automatic JINX. Every time I do that ----- We get missed. Lucy loves this place, and my damn back is so sore from Lucy yanking that accursed football out from under me every time I try for a 10 yard field goal. Damn. I hate living in Death Hell Valley, Texas. There is nothing worse than living in an arid place. I'd take 1000 years of 32.9 degrees with 7,000 inches of rain a year and my house is on titanium stilts 300 feet high. This is a kind of living death watching all my precious plants slowly dying of drought. Drought is a way of life in south central Texas.

This doesn't really affect the EMI very much since 1.2 is so minuscule and variable....the reason the EMI is biased east based is because La Niña has and will continue to be centered in region 3 and the eastern half of 3.4.

Yeah, I think he's around 75 now or so. I definitely am glad hes still around.

Good to know he’s doing well!

I put the furnace on this morning to get the chill out. I’ve been dying to make a fire but it’s too warm

Posts elsewhere and is still amazing. His local weather knowledge is second to none.

We never learn.

This is the new limit.

I’m guessing that is temporary. The structure is about as good as it gets. Look at this TDR