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2026-2027 Strong El Nino
bluewave replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Yeah, late November SSW didn’t translate into weaker Northern Stream until late January and especially February. This allowed the STJ to lead more allowing the KU BM event in late February. But the effect quickly wore off in March and we reverted to the 2020s mean of warm and snowless Marches with a dominant Northern Stream. Plus the NAO has been swinging more from one extreme to the other over time. So we weren’t able to get the extended November to May -NAO of 1995-1996. Several overlapping warming influences working against a 1995-1996 repeat. Especially the overpowering ridge in the Southwest resulting in the 2nd warmest winter for the CONUS.- 1,100 replies
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0.58" for the event ... Drought goes on with another well below normal month here at 2.50".
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- april showers bring may..
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Why do I hate ticks? One mid-range (pinhead size) deer tick latched onto my right lower eyelid last evening, within 1/16" of the top edge. After numerous tries I extracted the little horror, but the eyelid is nicely puffed up. The bit of pain with each blink reminds me just how much I despise the critters.
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We need a last minute North trend
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I would assume warmer the further west you go over north.
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2026-2027 Strong El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Does it have the potential to be as poor as 2015? At this stage, absolutely. Are there still avenues to a better season? Sure.- 1,100 replies
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Similar here, .42" Those last 2 freezes were not good for local fruit growers. Read the same for southern NJ as well. https://www.lehighvalleylive.com/outdoors/2026/04/fruit-growers-estimate-some-90-100-losses-due-to-freeze-in-eastern-pa-northwest-nj.html
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- april showers bring may..
- rain
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Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Itstrainingtime replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Finished with .61" of rain in Maytown. -
Using Mesonet data via NWS, Goldsboro is 1.35" for the month and Ridgely 1.09". 1.15" here recorded on my station. Very dry in this area.
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+1.8 at CON (before today) thanks to that mid month stretch.
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But if we are saying the further northyou are closer to that block is warmer than normal, that’s not true because Caribou was a hair below normal.
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My rain gauge broke and their hasn't been enough interesting weather to motivate me to order a new one. It looks pretty wet here this morning. I heard it pouring around 10 last evening.
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VT yeah being further west and away from these NW-SE boundaries. NE of that cooler.
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+2 to +3.5 in this neck of the woods.
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Just under 0.5” yesterday and about 2.4” for April.
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Tue has near 80° potential…probably more like mid to upper 70s though.
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Picked up 0.63 yesterday and 2.30” for April.
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Just over an inch here for the month.
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Had a couple of heavier downpours yesterday for a total of 0.71" (same as @Interstate). 3.22" for the month as things begin to green up.
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2026-2027 Strong El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
This is new to me. 2-3 month lagged response?? One thing I will need to look at when doing my post season analysis next week is the connection of +WPO to the more active Pac jet, as last season was strongly -WPO. It may be that this analysis is difficult to do on a seasonal level, and it needs to be analyzed on a weekly basis. Additionally, I'm sure it's not a perfect correlation (increased PAC jet strength/+WPO), either.- 1,100 replies
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Saturday starting to look like a really good rainfall for most of SC, central and eastern NC. Same system in January would be a banger
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2026-2027 Strong El Nino
bluewave replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I am happy that we got one of the earliest SSWs on record back in late November. It was a big reason that this was the first winter with below average temperatures and above average snowfall in 11 years around NYC Metro. It’s possible that if the SSW had occurred later in the season, then with the lag could have resulted in the benchmark track coming too late in March when temperatures would have been more marginal for heavy snows along the coast. As it was the SSW occurred in late November with a 2-3 month lagged response for the BM KU track to materialize. December snows were all Northern Stream clippers.- 1,100 replies
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Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Jns2183 replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
.82" which puts me at 2.42' for month. Just over 50%[emoji769] of normal. We are not in good shape if we don't get a top 20 wet May. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk -
0.92". Not the frcst 2"+ but I'll take it. Fert went down last night
