All Activity

A definite shift south from 12z GEFS. Too much cold!

If you flip your phone horizontally you can

Watching the Deep South get the late week storm would really suck…. Hopefully it comes north and isn’t ice.

Yeah, I can see them on the iPad too but not the phone.

Lol, do they have a snow light?

Considering how well the AI models did with the weekend storm systems and in general (their verification scores are much better than their physics based versions), it makes sense to rely on them for the upcoming period. At the synoptic level, it's the best we have. All of that to say, the 18z AIGFS looks great for next weekend. The Euro AIFS was even better at 12z. Long ways to go

I'd imagine we'd wanna keep them higher...

Actually shifted south on both surface and 500mb. I fear we can no longer discount the suppressed scenario if EPS does the same.

31.5, light snow about 0.25", paved surface are quite slick

31.5 light snow, about 0.25"

The AIGFS manages to kick out the feature which tells me the GFS is out to lunch. How the 18z GFS manages to get to the same solution (at the surface) as the 12z Euro is pretty wild. Like two ships passing in the night...they get to the same point but their origins and destinations are not the same! I think this hp situation may take another 36 hours to get handled. Trends for me(regarding the aifs) are what I will be watching.

This explains a lot but raises a new set of questions.

Oh that's right, good point. I didn't take that into account

Moderate snow. 27.7F

18z GEFS trended colder with the heights a little bit lower. We will see what that does to the snowfall projections.

I'm terribly sorry for your loss. Hopefully, you've been able find comfort and heal through found memories of them.

Hilarious - right at the 1 year anniversary of SE NC getting 1-2'+ drifts

While we eagerly await our fate at machine learning's silicone hands, the GEFS looks torn on the Baja low:

The AI GFS is an insane run but I’m starting to think it overamps too many storms.

Crazy seeing the Euro with the huge totals instead of the GFS for a change.

you'd think so..but probably not That 1/29-30 would be an all-timer though

I think we have two things which have to be sorted out. The 18z GFS is highly likely in error w/ the Baja low. The key is where the hp sets up. Both the 18z GFS and 12z Euro both manage to get the high further south, albeit w/ different setups. The GEM para has the high further north as does the 12z AIFS.

Think it has become the DGEX lol...adding AI to make it a faster DGEX blows my mind..think they would want it to fix the bias/bugs in it.

I'd trust the bundle of misery known as my ex wife before I'd trust a GFS model 5+ days out

In Rockville Centre, in nassau county towards the south shore, there's basically no accumulation.I work doing residential snow removal in garden city, which is a little further north, maybe five miles and there was a couple inches today. All slushy , a little snow on colder surfaces...had to clean it all up case freezes tonight. Snowing moderately in RVC now