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Snow finally filled in along the shore. Starting to accum now.

How much is expected?

Tomer Burg @burgwx Very much in alignment here - not sure exactly when things fully kick off but once they do I suspect we'll have at least a 2-3 week window more favorable for moderate-major snowstorms vs. climo. South of NYC is likely more favored than north of NYC given Greenland block climo, but too soon to specifically rule NYC nor anyone else out. 12:21 PM · Dec 28, 2025 · 1,663 Views

I agree. I would definitely be more excited for this one if I was in Cvill or down where you are as it stands its far enough out to see a shift that ends up favoring us. The individual ens low pressures really just need a couple hundred mile shift and we'd be in business.

I’m a little further south right now. Some of the ndfd grids up there have 70mph gust speeds. I’m excited to have a few days of real winter after mid 40s and fog all week.

I used to head up to Pottsville a bunch. Was always amazed at the weather change from even frackville to there. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Models are looking good for mid-January. The only issue is how far out it is. It's a shame this deep -NAO trough for the next 7 days will be dry, but -NAO's usually are a drier pattern in La Nina.

Haha, a 5 day winter storm warning. I think a few here would willingly give up a few fingers for that. Only storm in history that came close was the April storm that dumped 40"+ in Morgantown way In the past Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Here we go again - light rain is freezing on my car and sidewalk already. Air temp is 32.8 and falling slowly.

Nonsense posts? People are worried about his well being. Tis the season I guess

I'm as guarded as you, but this doesn't seem to be a head fake. We're inside D5 for the pattern flip now.

Meanwhile on the Tug Hill plateau.... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1256 PM EST Sun Dec 28 2025 NYZ006>008-290700- /O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0006.251229T2100Z-260103T1200Z/ /O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0042.251228T2100Z-251229T1500Z/ Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis- Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville 1256 PM EST Sun Dec 28 2025 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST MONDAY... ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY...

Probably. The valleys climates were less harsh than in the elevations. Hazleton is a good example. While it was settled and became a city, it gets crazy windy up there and snows much more often and heavier than here. In reality, all things considered, in winter, Hazleton is, relatively speaking, quite a harsh climate in the winter.

33 here as well. No wind. Great day for a walk with the dogs around the neighborhood in the winter landscape.

The joke is on you. This is what he sees when he posts.

I rarely give it a glance anymore. Its pitiful

Bluewaves banter posting in the NYC thread of skiers being blown away is a must see

Oh no, human beings interacting with each other in a human way during down time. MODS PLS!!

Now let’s unpack the jargon. Line-by-line translation “I think we need to consider the 6-7-8 a pattern arrival event” ➡️ Around January 6–8, a new large-scale weather pattern is expected to fully arrive. Think of this as: the atmosphere reorganizes itself rather than just day-to-day weather noise. “That's going to be an H.A. implication (I suspect…)” ➡️ “H.A.” = Height Anomaly (upper-air pressure departures from normal). He’s saying this pattern change will strongly affect upper-level pressure patterns, not just surface weather. “all ens systems agree in the rather abrupt guard change in the N. Pacific” ➡️ All ensemble models agree that there’s a sudden flip in the North Pacific pattern. “Guard change” = the atmosphere switches roles quickly (like defense → offense). This agreement is important — it means the signal is probably real. “The entire circulation medium out there essentially product reverses” ➡️ The whole North Pacific flow flips (ridges become troughs, troughs become ridges). “like on a temporal dime… Really fast… intra-weekly time scale.” ➡️ This happens very fast, within a few days, not weeks. Meteorologists don’t like this — fast changes break models. Why this matters for forecasts “that's likely to cause increased model performance problems” ➡️ Models struggle when the atmosphere changes this quickly. So details beyond a few days become unreliable. “sending such a violent signal downstream” ➡️ A big Pacific change ripples eastward across North America. Weather patterns behave like waves — a hard shove upstream creates chaos downstream. “the western N/A ridge will be in a period… correction vector… toward more amplitude” ➡️ As models adjust, they will likely correct toward a stronger western North America ridge. “More amplitude” = higher ridges deeper troughs bigger temperature swings more extreme outcomes “more than is currently in the cinemas” ➡️ Current model maps are too tame. Reality is likely bigger and sharper. “wave # number/distribution argument” ➡️ This is deep meteorology, but in plain English: The way large planetary waves are rearranging forces compensation elsewhere. If heights crash in one region, they must build in another. “supplant the regions N of HA with… height anomaly reversal” ➡️ When upper-level pressure drops hard in the North Pacific, physics demands that pressure builds somewhere else — in this case: ➡️ Western North America “there will physically necessitate height growth into western North America” ➡️ A strong western ridge is basically unavoidable. This is the key sentence. Why New England should care “More than 50%… closer to 80%… takes place in < 5 days” ➡️ This is an extremely rapid atmospheric reorganization. Which means: Models haven’t “caught up” yet Downstream details are suspect “I would be reeeally leery about any depictions down stream over eastern N/A” ➡️ Do not trust model specifics for the eastern U.S. yet. Snow vs rain, cold vs warm — all still very fluid. “more amplitude is actually favored” ➡️ When things settle, expect bigger extremes, not moderation. For New England, that usually means one of these, depending on timing: Sharper cold shots Stronger storms Higher snow potential or sharper cutters Bigger pattern swings overall “That all times around the 7th for some sort of emergence E of the nations midriff longitudes.” ➡️ Around January 7, the effects of this pattern change should start clearly showing up east of the Mississippi. That’s when things “pop.” The Big Picture (in normal human language) He’s essentially warning other mets: “Hey — the Pacific is about to flip hard and fast. That almost guarantees a stronger western ridge than models currently show. Because this happens so quickly, models will struggle and probably underplay how extreme things get downstream. Expect bigger swings over the eastern U.S. around Jan 7 — and don’t lock into specifics yet.” If you want, next we can: Apply this specifically to New England snow/cold odds Decode what this implies for storm track vs cold supply Or compare this to past winters with similar Pacific flips Actually, kinda neat. Or the AI translation: This is a useful reorganization of the meteorologist's thoughts.

Mammoth got 7' since Christmas as well.

Wait til you see January

We are due for a 1996 La Niña Type blizzard

If I didn't have boot chains I couldn't walk outside lol

GEFS continues its woefully bad performance .

I also can't get out was counting on the ice driveway on a steep hill melting. May be the first time iced in since 1994