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It's your weather, you can customize it the way you want it.

Another weathergami on Monday:

Take em with a grain of salt…until under 5 days.

It's not an outright prerequisite but I like your overall approach here... What it does is changes the species. You go from Miller-A atmospheres to NJ Model Lows, which these latter kind "could be" considered Miller-B but they are not necessarily so. Either way, NJ Model low or Miller-B stressed and shredded... they move right along. The problem with Miller-B's in a fast atmosphere, the translation of the entire wave space moves along too fast and the "transfer" ( which is bs ..it's not a transfer in reality ) isn't given enough time for the new low to affect before it's expelled along the flow. Also, the speed doesn't allow the jet cross-sections to set up as proficiently either, and that offset the integrity of the new low that way. So both end up looking more sheary and shreddy and the Miller-B is challenged. NJ Model lows are systems where despite the fast flow enough amplitude occurs back west far enough to activate cyclogenesis nearing the coast... say over ~ WV ...When the nose of the jet/diffluence aloft approaches the natively intense thermal packing/+Baroclinicity near the Del Marva, a low detonates very quickly.. Sometimes bombing as she blossom out just under L.I. These clip the I-95 corridor from perhaps PHL on up to PWM. Albany may have dim sun while HFD-BOS has a 3 hour pulse of S+ with lightning and thunder. The best version of these were back in 1980s, then again around 1996. But the move really quick. 6 to 9 hours tops usually for totality.

Yes, I know JB, yada yada and he definitely has his flaws ... an interesting reminder, however, not to take the models verbatim. https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/2006385108584910948

Ray was never enthused. Smart man.

Mansfield is really tracking 81-82 very closely. https://matthewparrilla.com/mansfield-stake/ I have no idea how to get the image to copy or link.

Can we lower the winds to 20ish? If so, sold!

It's concerning too because it is rare to have a cold, wintry February or March during La Nina's as olaf's post shows. Even with a -NAO. If we keep delaying the cold coming to the SE it may never come at all. All I would like to see is a week or 2 period of a decent pattern with cold and an active STJ.

Good thing we're a patient bunch. 27F

December Precipitation at my location: Melted: 3.88" Snowfall: 13.1" Precipitation total for 2025: 43.43". Not a bad total just that is was very lean rainfall wise during the time of year that it was needed most. In addition there were wetter periods followed by long periods with little precipitation. Healthy and Happy New Year to all.

It seems to deliver big bombs elsewhere though…no problem. We’ll get one before the winter is over…long way to go. We’ll take the nickels in the meantime.

Looks like the 12z’s are the most importent runs of 2025.

December Precipitation at my location: Melted: 3.88" Snowfall: 13.1" Precipitation total for 2025: 43.43". Not a bad total just that is was very lean rainfall wise during the time of year that it was needed most. In addition there were wetter periods followed by long periods with little precipitation. Healthy and Happy New Year to all.

We do not disagree there.

Agreed….

One thing to note is we’ve had a fast PAC flow since early autumn. And one coastal Noreaster in fall. No one should be or have been expecting coastals this winter. You like to see a bunch in fall to set precedent . Fast flows do not deliver big east coast coastals

Sounds fun! We will be expecting some pictures.

I like mine to be critters that bite.

I haven’t been diligent this time especially with the wind making measuring almost impossible. Wisp is reporting 3” overnight so I’ll just go with that. I’ll try to measure tonight/tomorrow’s storm so you can keep your tally going. LWX point and click says 1-3” today and 5-9” tonight - it feels like we’ll end up on the higher end of those ranges based on how this first wave over performed. The lift is impressive on the models and the trajectory of the wave will really enhance upslope — that coupled with the ratios of upper teens/low 20s:1 and I’m excited for tonight. Hope your chase is epic!

Depending how close to 2.0/winter, you're doing better than here considering our considerably greater average snowfall, currently 88.5" thru 27 full seasons. We've had 47 storms of 10"+ in those 27 winters, or 1.7 per. Maybe we do better on 20"+, currently 8 plus 19.9 in March 2018. Early January looks cold (~8-10° BN) and dry. Maybe, like December, it can be BN for precip but AN for snow (22.4" vs 19.3" avg).

I went back and looped the radar and that band really blossomed right overhead. Based on the returns it would have been coming down moderately. It then weakened as it moved east. I was in exactly the right spot lol.

Solid start. I'm probably closing in on an additional inch. Grass is completely covered now.

No, I understood. Clippers are everywhere this year…after a big hiatus.