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Back is decidedly broken. Sure we’ll get some heat but I’m sensing an early autumn. Rubber band snaps back warm in December.

I went to look up about it after it stopped and the internet was out for hours. Electricity was on but the internet was down.

82 today. Beautiful day down at the marina

High temperatures will top out mainly in the lower 80s tomorrow and Monday before another push of cooler air moves in. Following the arrival of the cool air, high temperatures will top out mainly in the upper 70s and lows will fall to lower 60s in New York City through at least Friday. Outside the City, lows in the 50s will be widespread. There will be higher-than-climatological risk of at least one period in September with highs in the upper 80s or perhaps 90s. Summers similar to the current one have had September highs of 90 or above about 10 percentage points above that for all other years. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around August 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.53°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into early autumn. The SOI was +15.90 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.352 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 95% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.2° (1.9° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.0° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

not going to try and wishcast 99L like the last storm.. but there are some interesting ICON members and it did pretty good with Erin..

WTTTE

84-88 AWT

Thanks for your replies! I’m all for open discussion of alternative ideas and that’s why I posted this and others from him. If the alternative idea appears to be plausible, it would probably be supported to an extent. OTOH, if not, it would likely be refuted. Also, I feel it’s important for others to be aware of what’s being spread to so many people (Weather Bell subs in this case) whether plausible or not. Thus, I expect to continue posting Dr. V stuff. In this case, Dr. V’s idea has been refuted several times here. That helps others like myself to be more knowledgeable about the doubtfulness of the plausibility of his idea. Not only that, I learned thanks to bdgwx about OMICS and its fraud. Today, JB posted this as a followup: I'm now going to incorporate this into my (forever) paper which is now in its second draft. The finished product will then be submitted to The International Journal of Environmental Sciences and Natural Resources, a peer-reviewed journal that has accepted other papers I've written in the past (in fact, they solicit me on a regular basis for contributions). That paper will then get passed on to Tom Nelson, EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin, and my Congressional Representative, Mike Haridopolis. That will hopefully get the geothermal hypothesis onto a higher plane. The bolded adds even more to my doubts about Dr. V. Why? I hate to bring politics into this, but Zeldin and Haridopolis are far righties, which imho has been the source of a lot of misinfo of all kinds, including CC. I’m saying that as a moderate independent as I’m not a liberal or a Democrat. Also, Thomas Nelson is the producer of “Climate The Movie: The Cold Truth”, which tries to minimize the significance of AGW. @donsutherland1

I was teaching a class and the tables/desks started shifting back and forth. Everyone immediately knew what was going on. Then Irene hit, which was pretty bad here. A big Oak came down and just barely scraped the back of the house. Was lucky. Got plenty of firewood from that. That was a pretty interesting week lol.

And yet we still couldn't make it happen. The odds are so stacked against snow now it's kinda insane.

89/50 for only a +1 at CON today. Yore August keeps on rolling.

There were warm winters before 2011-12, but they were fewer and further between. Like if one happened, the pendulum would have almost certainly swung the other way the following year. But after 11-12, it's been warm winter after warm winter after warm winter (with the obvious exceptions of 13-14 and 14-15). I wouldn't say 21-22 was decently cold/seasonable. Only one month was (January), but the rest of that winter was well above average temperature. 24-25 was for the first time since at least 17-18 (and you could argue 14-15) colder than average more often than not.

SACRE BLEU! Special Message from NHC Sat, 23 Aug 2025 20:03:20 +0000 NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Storm Fernand, located in the southwestern Atlantic, at 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC).

I was sitting in my classroom with a clear view down a 100’ hallway, and I swear you could see the rippling floor approaching from the front of the building towards me. Same with the noise from the roof. It approached and then passed overhead. I can’t believe that its been 14 years.

A hurricane is possible by Mon:Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number 1NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025500 PM AST Sat Aug 23 2025The trough of low pressure (AL90) located a few hundred miles south-southeast of Bermuda has become better organized today. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft found a well-defined center during the past couple of hours, with a central pressure of about 1010 mb. The initial intensity is set to 35 kt, based on earlier scatterometer data which had a few believable tropical-storm-force wind vectors, and a Dvorak classification of 35 kt from TAFB.The initial motion is north or 010/13 kt. A north-northeastward motion is anticipated during the next couple of days with a slow increase in forward speed due to Fernand moving around the western periphery of the subtropical ridge. The storm will likely accelerate to the northeast thereafter as the system gets caught up in faster mid-latitude flow, well to the southeast of Newfoundland. The global models are in good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC forecast is on the eastern side of the guidance, closest to the HFIP Corrected- Consensus Model (HCCA).Fernand has about 48 hours over warm waters within generally light shear to intensify. There is a fair bit of mid-level dry air, however, which could hinder any rapid strengthening, so the intensity forecast will just show a more gradual increase in winds. All of the models peak the system as an upper-end tropical storm or category 1 hurricane, and the NHC forecast is just shy of a hurricane as a peak. After Monday, Fernand should weaken due to the influences of cooler waters and increasing shear, and the storm will likely become post-tropical in 3-4 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 23/2100Z 27.2N 61.4W 35 KT 40 MPH12H 24/0600Z 29.0N 61.0W 40 KT 45 MPH24H 24/1800Z 31.4N 60.3W 50 KT 60 MPH36H 25/0600Z 33.6N 59.5W 55 KT 65 MPH48H 25/1800Z 35.8N 58.5W 60 KT 70 MPH60H 26/0600Z 38.2N 56.7W 55 KT 65 MPH72H 26/1800Z 41.3N 54.0W 50 KT 60 MPH96H 27/1800Z 47.0N 44.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP120H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED$$Forecaster Blake

I've had two days of measurable rain (0.01, 0.04) since the last half decent rain (0.38) on July 22.

The NWS drops POP from 60% to 30% for Sunday. The drought returns with very low Pops the next 15 days...............................

It’s looking pretty good to be honest with convection continuing to fire and clear spin. It’s a robust disturbance.

Not much of a breeze in the city iso it feels warmer than the 83 it is

Yeah this place is a sausage party. At least the weather is nice!

Pretty nicely organized LLC per recon.

I did not have that happen to me. That must’ve been quite an experience.

Blasphemy

This strong breeze is so nice