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This October watch to see if US goes colder or not. El Nino's are historically cold in Oct. Pac pattern in Oct is pretty connected to the Winter.

On the first day of torchmas my true love gave to me, a +5 c anomaly

Picked up 0.74 Monthly total now up to 2.59 The wettest month now - since May

I lived in Bristol CT at the time we r had a solid foot of pretty dense snow before 1.5 inches of sleet and then a quick but wild burst of 2.5 inches on the backside giving us 16 inches. The backside snows were not widespread, we just got lucky in central and I think western CT had it too. But we had no snow on the ground prior. I will never forget the wind on the backside of that thing that Sunday with gusts over 50 mph bright sunshine and mid afternoon temperatures in the low teens.

A few La Nina/-QBO's had crazy N. Pacific blocks in December.. >+200dm. That would be a wildcard for Dec, a monster N. Pacific low, if the PDO wasn't going against it so hard and recent patterns.

1.14” this morning, currently raining steady again .20” so far.

I think you are paying too much attention to one part - ENSO. ENSO's propagation to the northern latitudes are 2nd and 3rd effects. Sometimes patterns set up in the mid latitudes. A greater El Nino response than 2015 is crazy imo. DJFM had nearly -120dm in the N. Pacific. We have not seen that like at all in 11 years, this record El Nino summmer included.

Idk man, isnt that the most typical outcome here? 80s and 90s were no different in that department. Plenty of punting in the majority of those winters. If anything, the best 10-15 year stretch in my lifetime was 02-03 thru 2015-16 and there was plenty of stench mixed in between the truly good years. Feast or famine and lots of boring stretches is the MA base state for as long as I've been alive lol. Even the 70s werent mind blowing in the snow dept. Deep cold at times was the big story. Not prolific snowstorms. 2013-2016 was the best 3 year stretch in MA history since the 60s imo.

Well that took care of the outside stuff, lol. Quick thundershower dropped about .20" with some gusty winds. Also dropped the temp about 15 degrees. Currently light rain and 70.0/68.9.

I mean big December snow is a bit of a tall order but you have a good point.

Strong easterly flow plus well AN SSTs too. Depending on how things align we could see a lot of rain and very cool highs.

Upstate South Carolina and SW North Carolina Autumn is Coming

80/68 at 3pm. Quite summery.

Basically one good downpour the other night here for a total of .15". Despite a good August, we've mostly been in the screw zone this monsoon season.

Thanks a lot https://x.com/lclimateguy/status/2100618742191296624?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

0.39” imby/Columbia from Thursday afternoon rain shower between approx 1:30-2:30pm.

Not to be taken verbatim obviously but it is dropping hints of a possible wet pattern next 2 weeks. Details, timing and placement of wettest locations TBD.

Lemon. Orange. Lemon. Orange. Lemon. Feel like I'm watching a slot machine in Vegas.

Op gfs is only holdout on a very rainy week starting Sunday. Ai gfs flipped hard.

Looks like about 1/3” at home

Op model but the Euro is wet for it's entire run

12Z UKMET: again says no Gulf TC

riding it