All Activity

I honestly thought it, but I didn't want to mention it and sound so professional.

WB 6Z GEFS

0.39" of rain overnight. 2.00" on the month. 56F

It being closer to mid range has me locked in and ready for the first disappointment of the season

Bring on the snow floods!

Torch. 56.

95-96 Niña

Quite possible. Just need the right track. Here is the 6z gfs

Both Gfs and Ukie have it as a Miller A.

Killjoy

Picked up .30” of rain yesterday and overnight. Currently 47 degrees. Everyone safe travels for thanksgiving!

Ensemble too.

4.5 final call

Nice looking runs, but let's not get too excited until we get within 5 days. It's not even December yet, so let's hold until Black Friday. If the models are still doubling down then, this may be a real threat to contend with.

Slowing down the introduction of renewables is going to increase US electricity prices. https://www.forbes.com/sites/ianpalmer/2025/11/23/electricity-prices-will-shoot-up-due-to-us-federal-mandates/?ctpv=xlrecirc

Good news, I’ll be in Denver for work next week. This is probably happening for us.

0.50” rain. We take what we can get.

Noticed that. GFS AI is well offshore too.

Plug-in hybrids, EVs with a back-up gas engine, are an additional roughly 20% in China. So conventional combustion cars have fallen below 50%. EV subsidies are being eliminated in China as they aren't needed anymore (see link). Agree China wouldn't have cheap EVs without subsidies. However, now that cheap EVS are here there is no going back. EVs are only going to get cheaper and better going forward as commercial scale increases and battery technology improves. China's big EV bet is paying off. Their EV exports are ramping, reaching a record $7 billion in August. (2nd link). https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/china-signals-it-will-pull-plug-subsidies-evs-with-five-year-plan-exclusion-2025-10-29/ https://ember-energy.org/data/china-cleantech-exports-data-explorer/

Very dense fog here this morning. 49°.

AI stuff pretty far offshore. But, we watch.

Nice 12-18 event for dc and Maryland. Nbd.

Well that escalated quickly. Only ~5.5 days out for start of precip:

We 6z GFS

WB 6Z GFS. Doubles down at 6Z!