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Yeah the center is squarely under the convective burst ongoing at the moment, would expect another substantial drop on the next pass
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Central PA Autumn 2026
Yardstickgozinya replied to canderson's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
I'm not a big tropics guy per say, but I am a fisherman. All I know is that these kind of fall systems produce epic bites and fights ,so my budy and I are going to be out Sunday and Sunday night, taking full advantage. I'm heading out now to stock the cooler with bait. -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
forkyfork replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
because being patient and logical with snow autists is a waste of time -
Incredible organization since this morning’s flight. The inner core is well on its way to becoming established. Very tight core too
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
LakePaste25 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I think it’s worth tracking, but proceed with caution given the known ECMWF weak PV bias. -
The latest dropsonde says 997 mb.
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October 2026 general discussion
Prismshine Productions replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
Yo @ineedsnow I guarantee you that this would piss some people off buddy Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk -
I thought the "theory" was the rate of change thru the entire month of October.
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
GaWx replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Thanks. So, what does all of this say in regard to the ECMWF’s forecasted weaker than avg SPV in Jan/Feb? Is that a legit signal of a likely weaker than normal SPV then? -
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
FPizz replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
He has pet rocks, enough said. He hopes they make pebbles together so that he has more friends to talk to. -
Historically the “I” storm seems to deliver, and it’s been 6 years since Isaias was last used and it’s on a 6 year cycle?
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Central PA Autumn 2026
Yardstickgozinya replied to canderson's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
I woke up to my third frost of the year with the first one being the very early September 25 for Fairview, Mechanicsburg, Dillsburg and probably beyond ,that I posted the picture of . -
Bit of frost this morning with a low of 34F. Now 63/38...nice day. I'm guessing we toss the GFS now but would be nice to get that clipper-like system next week to come in a little further south and crank up something interesting.
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the word at the local farmer's market is that freshly ripened tomatoes and peppers will be available from that hill through December
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This morning's recon was having some data issues, wonder if they just missed it or the data was bad. If not Isaias we're about to see some big wind increases as winds catch up to that pressure drop.
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
Cobalt replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
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Late to the game been bust outside. The Canuk's won the smack down fairly substantially for QPF the last week of Sept. IBY. They have been by far the most accurate QPF models for MBY all the way back into Aug so I'm gonna ride them through this winter lmao.
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Wow latest recon finding about 10mb lower pressure than the previous one.
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So expect a big winter. Got it.
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Prismshine Productions started following Tropical Storm Isaias
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Tropical Storm Isaias
Prismshine Productions replied to WxWatcher007's topic in Tropical Headquarters
Another result of that: Further east delays the shear weakening Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk -
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E PA/NJ/DE Autumn 2026 Obs/Discussion
JTA66 replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
Yeah, Irene, Isaac, Ida, Isaias…the “I” storms rarely disappoint. -
meanwhile the girlfriend..
