All Activity

Line is still to my west but front running rain has broken out and it's bringing wind down with it. Has to be gusting low 40s. You can hear the roar in the distance before the gusts roll through. Still out of the south but Roanoke has switched to westerly and gusting high 30s. This is better than both of the 2 lines that moved through earlier.

OPM got raked over the coals after the Jan. 26, 2011 snow event when they put an early dismissal out but folks waited until the last minute to leave. Now there's a "everybody out b [insert time here] rule. But yea, waiting that long to dismiss was kind of weird.

Lock it in. We can adjust higher if needed. Soundings on the 3km NAM would suggest 40 knots or so for HVN. Those gust maps are completely trash.

And just like that the ground is white.

MDEM having a 5pm call with NWS to determine if i eat popeyes tonight or if my wife comes home early

Starting to cover the grass here in Blowing Rock now. Took forever to switch over but hammering now.

Anthony. You MUST visit the U.P. in winter. Its incredible.

I think the thread was fine. It wasn’t until last night where things started to rapidly deteriorate for the setup with all the discrete crap over the area prior to the fropa. I mentioned last night that one of the keys to this setup was a a limited cap and better solar isolation was necessary in order to get the better thermodynamic posture that could entice better convective magnitudes. We often see these precursor shortwaves ride ahead of the mean trough and overturn the environment to a point it’s hard to recover. The issue with the decision making processes is they have to be made well ahead of time to make sure it logistically goes well. School delays, cancelations, early-dismissals need to be known well in advance. Well, it wasn’t until we started to see the, “Whites of its eyes”, before we could see the failure on the table. Decision was made, so if it fails, you have to live with the decision. I think the one decision that blew my mind was the last second one by OPM for, “Everyone out by 2PM”….That made no sense considering what was unfolding. Not my decision, but opinions are like assholes, everyone has one, including myself. Rest assured, this will give meteorologists in the area another black eye I’m sure which is just dandy. I fear the day something truly nasty does happen severe wise and there will be public distrust from, “Boy who cried wolf” syndrome. I didn’t agree with the MDT from SPC up this way for my own personal reasons looking at guidance, but most of the ingredients were there for an enhanced risk. We fell one true ingredient short of that threat, so it ended up being more of a SLGT risk with tonight’s wind threat still to come. Off my soap box and time to get ready for night 5/7. Will be watching the fropa as that will be the main show.

I swear, last one haha The rates earlier were insane, what a cool experience. Check out this high shutter speed photo! Looks like noise

That's some backed low level winds there t Is it not? I'm not quite sure.

It wasn’t even windy here. Did get to leave work early. Win for me. Can’t wait for November. Start over

Moderate to heavy snow with winds gusting to 40. Visibility down to a quarter mile. 28 degrees.

That line with the front is starting to pop over Cumberland

One thing I will take serious because we actually do well at it around here so I'm not expecting a fail - cold and windy. I'm gonna get my wood stove going now so it's ahead of the curve.

Measured 2.5" on Board at 4:30 . Snow has stopped now other than light small flakes.

Winds are kicking up out here still warm but down about 4 degrees

HRRR usually is tame . NAM is even better

Kids probably all got a severe weather trophy to go along with it as well.

Yep

euro ai, only 8 days out. what could go wrong

Awesome man

This might end up the most impressive part of the storm for us.

GUSTS on the HRRR

in or near center city. I like the laid back attitude in this forum. Smaller forums are better. If I get banned, I'll try to come back under another name next winter. I don't know all the climo ins and outs of Philly so I'll need your guidance.