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Recon will be in it shortly. They released this 2PM EDT TWO quite early: Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL200 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:1. Near the Southeastern United States (AL92):Satellite wind data indicate that the system located about 150 miles off the northeast Florida coast has become better defined today with an area of strong winds located on its east side. Showers and thunderstorms are also persisting near and to the east of the center. A short-lived subtropical or tropical depression could form later today or on Saturday while the system drifts generally north-northwestward. This low is expected to move inland over the southeastern U.S. by early Sunday. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently en route, and the data they collect should provide more details on the system's structure. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible across portions of west-central and southwestern Florida through early Saturday, and across coastal sections of the Carolinas beginning later on Saturday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.Forecaster Cangialosi/Beven

Wind was pretty brisk on our local pond, but the resident bald eagle was happy to show up.

73F/ my thoughts are this is a top 10 day........Happy 4th everyone, be safe and enjoy!

We really need an almost perfect setup to beat that 2012 record. The cool June and continued strong +AO and cool isn't going to cut it regardless of the May melt pond data IMO.

Hey Stormlover! I'm glad you're ok. I lost power a few seconds after my last response to you. The power just came back on now -- over 18 hours of no power here. By far the longest power outage I've ever experienced. We didn't even lose power for long here during Sandy. I agree with you -- this was the worst storm I've ever seen. Wind gusts were easily over 70mph here. Projectiles flying through the air like I've never seen before and the biggest amount of trees down that I've ever seen. Couldn't cook dinner last night with the power out, so we decided to go to Longhorn Steakhouse (they didn't lose power there). Usually it takes 8 or 9 minutes to get there, but it took over a half hour because so many roads were closed. Was starting to think I couldn't get there but I found a way. It was amazing driving around and seeing the huge amount of damage. Definitely the worst t-storm damage ever since I've lived here. Since the power was out so long, I decided to cancel our 4th of July cookout today. Not enough time to get things ready now. A shame because of the perfect weather, but we're gonna have the cookout tomorrow and Sunday instead. I will still light off some fireworks tonight though.

I am frackin jealous. What's that bright object in the sky?

I am not sure what the sam hill is going on here in central TX right now. We got this round area of heavy rain just spinning like a top so much, it's making me dizzy. We have picked up 2.6 inches since yesterday. We are under a flood watch that has been extended out to evening. Lots folks disgruntled over soggy 4th celebrations and the prospect of soaked fireworks. This thing just does not want to leave. NWS says possibly up to 7 inches by tonight. I thought this was gonna be done by 9am today? This is Central Texas not northern Virginia.

That's typically how we get our biggest heat as a matter of climate fact... The model of AN in NE has 2 origins: 1 MS Valley/Gulf 2 S/W U.S. These have different large synoptic circulation modes and are easily identifiable. 1 is a WAR sourced. The West Atlantic Ridge retrogrades west and bulges the westerlies N of New England. This tends to collocate with a surface ridging which imparts a deep layer SW flow from east Texas and the Gulf region up and around the periphery of the high. This type of heat seldom exceeds the low 90s, but will transport high theta-e ( elevated DP) air. think 92/76 2 is Sonoran desert/elevation processed heat. This is led by a +PNA that collapses into a mode change -PNA. This ejects plume(s) of intense kinetically charged desert air, with exceedingly hot 850 mb type temperatures, EMLs and very tall mixing columns on the soundings. The -PNA sends heights higher over the eastern mid latitude continent, and the ejected plume(s) of high heat get timed into that ridge expansion and trapped. This kind of AN pattern is typically where we get our biggest T. DPs may start out diurnal cycles in the 70s, but will tend to mix down to the 60s. think 100/66 Sometimes... you can hybridize between these two ... For example, the retrograding WAR may be coupled with a --> -PNA.... but there is no certainty while that is happening that a plume will be timed. So it's important in climate awareness to understand the mechanistic differences in how the heat is transported across the continent. That EPS mean above is indicating the #2 method of heat transport is favored - assuming that gaudy look actually materializes that way.

77/57...couldn't draw it up any better for the 4th. Enjoy the day folks.

66/50 in the valley. Bit cooler up here at the mountain. A nice break in the heat.

Gusty NW winds at the lake. Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

Early split picture showing up in the data. It was a warmer than average May across the Arctic. But not as warm as 2020 was which lead to all the preconditioning that year. June was the coolest in the Arctic over the last decade. Yet the extent is currently in 1st place for lowest in early July. But the area is only 8th lowest. Area and melt pond fraction are more important this time of year than extent in trying to guess a September low. Unfortunately, the May melt pond data still hasn’t been released. This is what the statistical model uses to forecast a June September low. If I had to take an early guess, the higher area now than extent could mean that the extent will fall behind the steep 2012 drop which happened back in early August 2012. So it’s possible that the 2012 record low will hold for another year. But I want to see the May melt pond fraction first before making a final call. I will update this if the ARCUS SPIN site gets around to posting the model forecasts for September. They have been delayed in their update.

Unexpected 1.2” early this AM. Garden now having a happy 4th. The brisket, however, is going to be delayed.

Lovely day! I enjoy my heat but love the gathering planned in near perfect outdoor wx today. It should be hot Sunday onward for a few days and like the past few weeks, cooldowns are short lived.

Was surprised the military planes made it this far north this morning. Had numerous fly by

GGEM remains consistent bringing rain from future Chantal into the area. Many runs in a row even though it has no support.

Funnily enough, the USCRN data largely supports my contention decades ago that the US climate record likely understates the change. If you accept USCRN as the gold standard, then, you must conclude nClimDiv [and the older USHCN] clearly understates warming in recent decades.

I do want to clarify one thing. I indicated USCRN has a slightly larger warming trend than nClimDiv over the period. I think that actually understates the difference. While the trend difference over the 21 years of overlap are relatively small, the magnitude of the trend is quite larger in USCRN. You can see Zeke Hausfather addressed this in 2023, after some images purporting to show minimal change in USCRN were shared on Twitter/X and picked up some steam. In reality, there was a large trend in the data masked by the much greater month-to-month variability in the data. The most accurate record of US temperatures shows rapid warming At that time, per Hausfather, the trends were 0.3C/decade for USCRN and 0.23C/decade for nClimDiv. Revisiting this with data updated through the first half of 2025, the difference has become a bit more substantial. Obviously, 2025 is incomplete, so these trends could be off a bit if the final annual anomaly deviates significantly. But I calculate the trend in USCRN at 0.47F/decade, or 4.7F/century, while nClimDiv is 0.34F/decade, or 3.4F/century. Note, I use degrees Fahrenheit, as opposed to degrees Celsius as Zeke did.

71 at noon….COC afternoon in store.

Torch!!!

Looks like the next warm up in mid-July will be another over the top one leaving room for moisture undercutting the ridge before then.

Steamy Independence Day in the Twin Cities. 88/70 at 11am. Water activities abound.

Much mire wind and chop this morning. Fishing venture was shortlived

The coastal areas of especially much of the Carolinas are likely going to be affected a good bit this weekend by Invest 92L, located ~100 miles E of N FL as it heads generally N. Recon will be in it early this afternoon. It’s possible that they’ll find that it’s already a TD. If so, TS Chantal may not be far behind. Conditions are moderately conducive to development. See the Tropical subforum for a dedicated thread for this.