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had a little thunder this morning as well. Temps hovering right below freezing but should hopefully jump up into the mid/upper 30s shortly.

Freshets…LFG

Sat: Today's record highs include Downtown LA at 92 degrees (previous 90 degrees in 2015), LAX at 88 degrees (previous 86 degrees in 1994), and UCLA at 89 degrees (previous 87 degrees in 2015)

Might have to check this out of its still around tomorrow 3.) How widespread heavy rainfall will be to cause minor flooding of rivers, streams and urban areas along with any ice jams causing issues with flooding. An ice jam on the Millers River in Athol, MA reported and photographed by a SKYWARN Spotter will be monitored for any flood potential if the heaviest rain develops in that area.

Going to wait until 12z models before I do my little write-up for my office. While a ton of people at work (including in management) read my emails - they seldom apply my messaging to their actual decision making - which I don't blame them since I'm a weather weenie. But so far it has burned them a few times (during snow events) when they've closed too late (once people were already at the office) or haven't closed early enough in the afternoon leading to people having 3-5 hour commutes. I've *never* seen them release early for something other than snow...And I'm physically onsite tomorrow until 5:30pm. Great....with no windows too!

Just woke up to see some of the hi-res were showing and I will take. Looks like the Nam is showing a 300mb jet acceleration that enhances lift behind the front: Precip. pops over central Alabama and Mississippi and ride up into eastern TN. I think there's probably more dynamically going on that that too, but I'm just excited to see what happens. Maybe we can get some tasty lapse rates with that March sun as the cold pools rolls through tomorrow PM? We'll see if we can get some good rates, but it has been pretty warm so I'd hedge against road problems in areas with lots of traffic especially. Also, just now logging back in, so I wanted to add sorry for your loss Daniel

The last three winters have all ranked among the 10 warmest in the West: A disproportionate share of top 10 warm winters in the West and nationwide have occurred since 2000: The Great Lakes and Northeast were fortunate to have a cold and snowy (especially in the Northeast) winter. Such winters can still occur, and likely will occur for decades to come, but they have become notably less frequent on a nationwide basis.

Thawing ground and S-SE flow could result in some Phil. I’d like to see some models other than the NAMs ramp it up though.

Urban chasing is tricky. I try to target areas where there's a less traffic but a good road system. Let use north Maryland for example. 70 is good for getting in but not for chasing an actual tornado. I chased out by Thurmont in Carroll County. Good roads, good views, and no traffic mayhem. You don't want to be stuck in traffic with an ef 3 tossing cars and coming at you. Watch for trees. I take my chainsaw just in case I need to cut my way out. Be careful and good luck. Btw. I'm not a met. I'm just nuts about weather lol. I'd join you if I wasn't working.

Round 1 of shoveling I measured 7-8” depending on the spot. 12” storm total definitely still in play.

These always gust 50-55 EOR and especially with elevation. . 60 is magic number for those that want damage

I have no interest in 0 metering. More a storm structure guy.

I do think linear convective systems in our region tend to roll through a bit earlier than even short range models predict. There are exceptions, of course - but with a solid line - it wouldn't shock me to see it bump 1-3 hours earlier as we close.

It was very convenient to be clear most of the night and immediately cloud up at sunrise to lock the cold in. 27.7° now off of a min of 24.7° We do the dews tomorrow. Remaining packs cryin’ for their mama.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0241.html Never heard any thunder myself but the Lakeview, South St Paul, and Lake Elmo obs sites all reported thunderstorm in vicinity around 6 am

If you do, please be careful. Fast storm motions will make this potentially chaotic.

Thinking I might chase tomorrow. Any met want to tell me a good grounding location? I was thinking orange VA

March is the pneumonia month every year. Hold on to your sinuses...

Too cold.

Yeah coming down nice in this secondary heavy right now. 7” over here in Woodbury as of 7 am and I’m guessing MSP is doing at least as well given they reported 5” at midnight. Looks like jackpot zone of 10-15 from Rochester over to Wausau and then a buffer zone of 6-10 up to the southern half of the metro. Bummer for the north side though being so close. AIFS over the past few days was the closest with the placement. Most models showing 4-6” additional today over here so that 12-13 threshold for significant storm still in play for MSP? .

That's a heck of a radar in LaCrosse, WI right now. Thundersnow and thundersleet.

Not to downplay how bad things are out there right now because they are bad but it’s going to end up being a huge anomaly in the end. Didn’t you guys just have a string of good winters the last decade? I know 22-23 was cold in the west for sure. It’s not like some switch was flipped and now this is the “new normal”. When March 2012 happened over here after a warm and snowless winter, I read a couple of articles about how this was going to happen more because of climate change. Well, no surprise to me, nothing even close to that has happened since. Or how about the “permanent” Texas drought I kept reading about in the early 2010s? Next thing you knew it was flooding there.lol.

This heat event will be among the most impressive heat events on record relative to climatology. It will rank up there with the March 2012, June 2021 PNW, September-October 2024 Southwest heat events in terms of peak temperatures relative to normal. The national March high temperature mark of 108° should fall. Numerous cities will surpass not just March, but also April monthly records.

Updraft Helicity Index

@Ginx snewx would you happen to have a snowfall total recorded for Jan 7-8 1996? I dunno how far your records go back but you gave me Dec 2000 so i thought maybe you might have one.