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Some flurries or snow showers are possible tonight into tomorrow in parts of the region. The ground could be coated or dusted in places. The eastern end of Long Island and eastern Connecticut could see 1"-2" of snow due to an influx of some Atlantic moisture. The first week of January will likely have a mean temperature below 30° in New York City. The last time that happened was in 2018. The only years since 2000 with a sub-30° mean temperature for the opening week of January were 2001, 2010, 2014 and 2018. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around December 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter. The SOI was +2.39 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.306 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 33.9° (5.2° below normal). That will make December 2025 the coldest December since 2010 when the monthly mean temperature was 32.8°. It would also make 2025 the third coldest December since 2000. Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.5° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Heading out soon for celebrations. Be safe if you’re out and about tonight. Here’s to a snowy start to 2026. Happy New Year weenies

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA +0.5 -0.4 -0.7 -0.4 +2.5 +2.2 +2.0 +1.6 +0.7

Yeah, it depends on where you live. I grew up in a house built in the 1800s so there wasn't exactly a snow code for that roof.

I have not, so maybe one day I'll do it. I have a lifted Jeep, so it certainly wouldn't be a problem getting around.

Probably from like Salem, NH northward.

After all the numerous can kicks of the last 10 years, I sure hope so...goodness gracious. Yeah if we aren't seeing it move up in time by next week ya gotta wonder.

They plowed 2 different times we had 0.5” snows this season. But they seemed to have forgotten to put salt down They put some sand down which they haven’t in years. It sucks.

Snowshoe gonna get pummeled. I really need to start chasing soon if nothing happens.

Yw man . I knew you knew. Just a mistake we sometimes make. '76 was the January..it was a cold one in these parts. Not alot of Snow but several small one's. Dry overall.

LOL

Even if a storm cuts in that pattern, a lot of us are still probably getting front enders that will be more fruitful than these clippers that are drier than a nun's no-no given the antecedent airmass.

Looks like the trend now is 6 and 12z punt and happy hour lives up to its name.

You're right and right about Coz being right imo. I think I got that right. Sometimes things just go against the grain; atypical patterns and paths. Chaos, multiple, diverse Driver's etc. The strongly negative QBO is without a Doubt a Player in my Mind.

Thanks for the update. I couldn't remember if it was '76 or '77 when I went to type that out.

If we don't have a good snowstorm in January 1-10, we might be waiting a long time for one. Maybe even until next year. Remember, we've had below average temperatures for most of the time since August. It's only a matter of time before it swings back the other way, and we have above average temperature departures. And once we have that, the chances of snow will be tougher.

I think it is also worth noting that NE TN and SW VA may well see some snow in the air tomorrow if the 18z RGEM is correct.

Nice snowy scene outside even though it’s not stacking.

Yeah, so much for the MJO 6 always warm ideaology. Jan. 77 coldest in modern History. Btw, that was a weak El nino Winter, if that has little if any different affect on the Outcome.

A relatively dry year, 39.57" plus anything that falls later today, 40th driest of 157 years at NYC, and drier than all since 1981 (25th driest 38.11") except for 2001 (11th driest 35.65"), 2012 (28th driest 38.51") and 32nd driest 1985 (38.85").

Seems everything has shifted 10 days later. I have a feeling models will turn colder at day 10+ by friday.

Yeah, that's valid points Jax. I'm sure you meant Shift though lol.

100%! Had snow this morning in Chincoteague where my wife and I were the last couple of days. Home now where it feels like 26° and the low last night was 18°.