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WB 0Z NBM

https://streamable.com/010pjd Backyard fireflies peaking in silver spring. This is after three years of curating their habitat with a couple hundred square feet of "meadow" and dumping leaf litter in a few areas. Everyone should do it!

Those first 4 days July is going to burn out the grass here and send us into not good drought conditions. For whatever reason @canderson and I have missed most of the rain this month. I sit at 1.25". We are in not good shape here and have been muddling along due to cool temperatures. That's all about io change and my soil moisture sensor already is at lowest ever 35%. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Squall line moving south down the Front Range from WY, kinda unusual. Will be interesting to see how far it makes it.

Euro is showing 100-105 for most of NC/SC on July 3rd, meanwhile, out west...

Coming into D 8/9. Overall looking warm - hot as ridge is regressing a bit so could yield some isolated showers/storms the perid 2-3-4th looks hot especially west / inland of the beaches.

@Wow

Todays's High New Brnswck: 87 PHL: 87 TTN: 85 ACY: 85 LGA: 84 TEB: 84 EWR: 83 BLM: 83 NYC: 83 ISP: 81 JFK: 81

Cut grass today. Last time for the summer?

Ray?

For now at least we look to just be on the northern fringe of the heat. We'll see how that looks as we get closer. Heat looks fierce from roughly D.C. area south and southwest. Carolinas and southeast look to bake under intense upper level ridge. Maybe enough of an offshore trough to give us a slightly less hot NW flow at least initially. If ridge position is more north and east the heat will surge in but as it looks now the worst of the heat could be held at bay and only last for 2-3 days mid to late late next week.

Shifted way South

Ray, good job with the analysis. Like always, hoping things shift that will favor a colder outcome for east of the rockies. Amo and Pdo could be very important.

Webbed hands of Stein have reached the server room.

If we can get a +pdo and some semblance of a -amo, we may be in good shape this winter

Its too far out to know anything. It should be cooler due to clouds and rain. Always fun to speculate. 2015-16 was +qbo east-central based.

It’s been like this several weeks. Worse by the day

Cloudflare bad gateway 18Z says no rain on Saturday.

Nailed it. Mirror image of the Reflective Pool.

We have our best guy on it right now

Some of this is almost certainly the GFS doing GFS kinds of things (i.e., too hot especially after day 5). The GFS does this frequently in summer. It could easily be 5-10 F too hot. I’d bet heavily against it being this hot. Quite hot is likely but not this hot. Edit: the lagging issue here isn’t getting any better. It’s terrible! I’ve been here since it started in 2010 and can’t recall any tech issue worse than this. @Wow

This thing is full struggle bus today.

Yes!!! And not done at HR 60. WB 18Z 3K NAM