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That was a scary succession of posts… lol

No.

This is ON THE MONEY! (sorry haha) Any snow during daytime hours at 34-37° will be "white rain" in RVA, south and east. Winds could be interesting tho, and if wet snow gathers on trees and power lines it will be an issue.

Will be looking at GEFS to see if they stay the same or improve

Yea I’m not impressed with the trend here at all. The rest of the guidance has been for more of a coastal impact. Temps are also a problem even more so for that crew. At this point, we gotta start taking the euro seriously.

Honestly... the changes in the Ohio Valley are a little eyebrow raising. Since yesterday's 12z, the GFS had been going with a sort of three piece look (which other models had believed in) where the main wave is actually two pieces close together trying to phase with a separate one further NW. This run mostly consolidates the main wave into one, and the trailer is still up NW. As long as that trailer gets close enough to bring the storm up, rather than just hinder the tilt, I don't see a reversal of the ticks NE as too crazy...

Yea this is the furthest nw it can get and with the Messenger shuffle incoming…what could have been for EEEMA.

I'll be content with no more shifts SE and a couple more ticks west on other guidance...

Is there a shot this goes TOO far west for SNE’rs?

Might be more like a 6.5/7/8 to 1 ratio when all is said and done, since some of that may be rain or white rain at the onset, and the other heavy aggregate flakes at 32.3-33.0F. And if I'm being honest, I wish the bulk of the event were at night and not during the day. Who remembers the St Patrick's Day snow in 2014? We got like 8.5" in Crofton that night (going into the 17th). At that event fallen during the day, we probably would have gotten half that amount.

The AIGFS continued a multi-run improving trend and the GFS was another excellent run... but it was actually slightly east of 6z with mid-level and surface lows. Reading the descriptions before checking the model, I expected an improvement. I think unfortunately people mostly just look at the QPF for their backyard when interpreting a model run. Anyway, a minor wobble in an OP run is just noise. The consistency of the GFS, especially considering other model trends, is very encouraging.

@metagraphicais the bright banding by you all sleet?

GFS is gonna score it's biggest coup ever here. I mean I just don't see how it doesn't at this point. 12z GFS: The trough is actually more amplified so the storm initially develops a touch further south. It tucks, but the occlusion process takes it a smidge further east this run which is why parts of the Lehigh Valley get lower totals overall (still 8-12"). The initial jet enhanced precip is also less expansive and has been trending less on the GFS, which also keeps totals lower further NW. Nitpicking here though, mostly noise and which areas get the most snow is dependent on the very fine scale phasing that occurs that we won't know for another day.

I'm not expecting much with the Sunday event, maybe a few inches of deform dregs. The GFS ticking SE at 12z is a decent sign that the westward trend has hit its bounds imo

It is a slight tick se with QPF on the 12z GFS.

If the GFS is correct, it will be puking snow for about an 8-12hr period on Sunday night.

Ain't no rules says a dog can't play backetball.

12Z Canadian - trough is digging more and the tilt is more neutral rather than positive thru 54 hrs

I fixed my post with the updated total qpf image

MU take: .

Yeah he's been quite spot on with diagnosing the trends and how things may evolve so I definitely think there is some additional room too but being cautious on the extent

After the 12z suite it will probably be ok to bump totals.

CMC looks better