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Spectacular

Awesome thanks for the explanation!

This is useless CRAP on January 6.

You are close. Too much NW - SE flow is a dry flow and discourages the pattern that we need with an active STJ.

Week of Jan 20th. If we don't have something plausible within 5 days of that, then it's probably game over for even hitting climo snowfall. It's going to be feast or famine during the upcoming favorable window.

I love this board! it's a roller coaster of emotion though. When I check in later tonight everyone will be cliff diving again!

With last weekend's rain here on the CA Central Coast, most major climo sites have surpassed their FY norms for the "water year." Anything we get from this point will be gravy, from that perspective. Looks a dry period upcoming - we need it here.

Looks like I'll need to wait for another time to get to 30". I'm at 27" and tonight ain't gonna do it.

Kidding aside…like I said, the lowest BOX beam is around 5000ft over your head. ENX is 10000ft. GYX is even higher. So if ENX is showing precip and BOX isn’t, that means it’s evaporating (sublimating in this case) before it reaches the ground…which is pretty typical when you have cirrus thickening and lowering in advance of a system with dry air in the low to mid levels.

how boring the weather is we got comments talking about snowstorms of yesteryear..

You come back Jan 15. Ji come back never.

Milder weather has moved into the region. The remainder of the week will see generally above normal temperatures. Some rain is possible starting late Friday or Friday night. Periods of rain could extend into Sunday. The week will conclude with highs finishing in the 50s across much of the region on Friday and Saturday. Cooler air will likely return Sunday or Monday. No significant Arctic blasts or significant snowfalls are likely through at least mid-January. Afterward, conditions might become more favorable for both cold and snowfall, especially if the PNA goes positive. PNA-related developments would have larger implications for snowfall. It will likely be a few more days before the guidance reaches the high-skill timeframe for teleconnection forecasts. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around December 31. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.63°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter. The SOI was +8.15 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.850 today.

What day should we come back?

I sure would like to know why folks seem to have an aversion to that...

56/72 were 50-50 Februarys at our NNJ homes (moved 8 miles south in 1971). Feb 56 was a nothingburger, only 4-5". That winter's peak was in March, including a 24" dump on 18-19, the first double-digit snowfall I remember (I was 21 months old for the Dec 26-27, 1947bomb) then a 12" paste bomb in early April brought the total past 60" (avg about 40). Feb 72 was the best of a mediocre winter, with a ~10" storm in mid-month and 2 lesser storms, the month producing more than half of the winter total. I had two of those, one on each side. Did lapro on one then 2yrs later had another on other side and went with open procedure. Also have shoulder impingement, that can go from one side to the next. getting older is not fun. No shoulder surgeries but I've damaged both. At 18, I tossed a baseball 270'. Today, I might not reach 70.

My best guess is, because Ohio, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana and Texas. Is that really northeast?

I had two of those, one on each side. Did lapro on one then 2yrs later had another on other side and went with open procedure. Also have shoulder impingement, that can go from one side to the next. getting older is not fun.

If its a Northeast Snowfall Impact rating, why does the storm of January 19-21, 1978 rank higher than the famous blizzard a little over 2 weeks later:

Things look extremely bleak right now, but I have some hope for January 20-30

The ignore function helps but sure would help more if people stopped replying to Ji

Golden years my ass lol

Just got in from a walk......temp is 24.*, but it has a feel of March out there.

They rushed the pattern change. The pattern will become colder around 1/11 no doubt. But the thaw is very powerful and very warm and it’ll take significant cold to make these areas below normal temps for January. Cold is only one step towards creating snow chances. Still nothing to look forward to on the horizon

Finally, since its a slow wx news day, here is how my backyard fared in every NESIS event since 1/1/1996 as listed at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/rsi/nesis Rank Start End NESIS Cat Description Smithtown Snowfall 2 1/6/1996 1/8/1996 11.78 5 Extreme 22.3 59 3/31/1997 4/1/1997 2.29 1 Notable 3.0 56 1/24/2000 1/26/2000 2.52 2 Significant 5.3 58 12/30/2000 12/31/2000 2.37 1 Notable 11.0 87 1/19/2001 1/21/2001 1.12 1 Notable 4.0 57 1/2/2003 1/5/2003 2.49 1 Notable 2.2 82 2/6/2003 2/8/2003 1.3 1 Notable 6.8 6 2/15/2003 2/18/2003 7.5 4 Crippling 18.8 75 3/3/2003 3/6/2003 1.54 1 Notable 5.7 51 12/14/2003 12/16/2003 2.77 2 Significant 4.9 63 1/27/2004 1/28/2004 2.03 1 Notable 13.5 9 1/21/2005 1/24/2005 6.8 4 Crippling 14.4 50 2/28/2005 3/2/2005 2.84 2 Significant 7.2 34 2/12/2006 2/13/2006 4.1 3 Major 13.3 16 2/12/2007 2/15/2007 5.63 3 Major 1.3 54 3/15/2007 3/18/2007 2.54 2 Significant 4.8 85 12/19/2008 12/20/2008 1.25 1 Notable 7.3 80 1/17/2009 1/19/2009 1.32 1 Notable 3.1 73 3/1/2009 3/3/2009 1.59 1 Notable 11.5 37 12/18/2009 12/21/2009 3.99 2 Significant 17.0 69 1/29/2010 1/30/2010 1.66 1 Notable 0.0 30 2/4/2010 2/7/2010 4.38 3 Major Trace 33 2/9/2010 2/11/2010 4.1 3 Major 14.5 17 2/23/2010 2/28/2010 5.46 3 Major 12.1 26 12/24/2010 12/28/2010 4.92 3 Major 12.0 21 1/9/2011 1/13/2011 5.31 3 Major 15.8 61 1/26/2011 1/27/2011 2.17 1 Notable 14.5 22 2/1/2011 2/3/2011 5.3 3 Major 0.8 66 10/29/2011 10/30/2011 1.75 1 Notable Trace 31 2/7/2013 2/10/2013 4.35 3 Major 27.0 48 3/4/2013 3/9/2013 3.05 2 Significant 6.9 49 12/13/2013 12/16/2013 2.95 2 Significant 4.2 45 12/30/2013 1/3/2014 3.31 2 Significant 8.5 84 1/20/2014 1/22/2014 1.26 1 Notable 9.0 35 1/29/2014 2/4/2014 4.08 3 Major 8.8 44 2/4/2014 2/5/2014 3.34 2 Significant 3.1 23 2/11/2014 2/14/2014 5.28 3 Major 13.5 74 11/26/2014 11/28/2014 1.56 1 Notable Trace 76 12/9/2014 12/14/2014 1.49 1 Notable 1.4 53 1/25/2015 1/28/2015 2.62 2 Significant 15.0 18 1/29/2015 2/3/2015 5.42 3 Major 8.3 79 2/8/2015 2/10/2015 1.32 1 Notable 0.3 81 2/20/2015 2/22/2015 1.31 1 Notable 4.4 68 3/3/2015 3/5/2015 1.66 1 Notable 6.3 5 1/22/2016 1/24/2016 7.66 4 Crippling 17.5 55 1/4/2017 1/8/2017 2.52 2 Significant 9.5 64 2/9/2017 2/10/2017 1.87 1 Notable 12.0 24 3/12/2017 3/15/2017 5.03 3 Major 4.5 60 1/3/2018 1/5/2018 2.27 1 Notable 11.0 70 3/1/2018 3/3/2018 1.65 1 Notable 0.1 42 3/5/2018 3/8/2018 3.45 2 Significant 9.1 47 3/11/2018 3/15/2018 3.16 2 Significant 6.0 71 3/20/2018 3/22/2018 1.63 1 Notable 13.6 62 1/11/2019 1/13/2019 2.03 1 Notable Trace 83 3/3/2019 3/4/2019 1.29 1 Notable 4.8 46 12/14/2020 12/18/2020 3.21 2 Significant 6.7 25 1/30/2021 2/3/2021 4.93 3 Major 16.6 88 1/1/2022 1/3/2022 1.06 1 Notable Trace 72 1/4/2022 1/7/2022 1.6 1 Notable 9.1 67 1/28/2022 1/30/2022 1.73 1 Notable 16.4 4 12/13/2022 12/20/2022 8.52 4 Crippling 0.0 52 12/21/2022 12/26/2022 2.66 2 Significant 0.0