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I think the storm next weekend is real. Not atypical to have a storm as the transition event towards a warmer pattern.

12z euro ai has a good track only problem is the freezing line way north of Montreal lol

That’s damn impressive . This winter is legit

It will be in the Carolinas soon enough if that continues.. Wahh wahhh

Virginia is for snow lovers.

Is it possible that for once “what could go right” happens instead of…what we’re used to

And if the storm trends more amped, there is nothing in its way to stop it from advancing as far north as possible. We need cold air reinforcement in order to do well in a setup like this.

Honestly with 12z I'm not even sure if you could call the bit of low pressure in the Ohio valley a primary. From how I'm seeing the setup it appears to be an extension of the main low pressure system across the southeast states.

They were pounding when all of those 10-12” reports came out yesterday mid morning. I honestly expected to see more 15-18” obs. Those who cleared probably did, those who let it set probably stuck around that 12-13” mark.

But they show a 12 to 16" color zone?

WPO is going back negative so expect more cold air as we head into late February.

I thought about it, but Tuesday with the melt / residual salt the road spray will just cover my car again anyways.

Also the 12z UKMET looks half decent to my eyes. Doesn't go out far enough to see what happens. However, closed off 500mb low, over central MS/AL, neutral (going neg soon maybe) on the last panels on pivotal. Some CAD in place but not super cold in the mid-atlantic. One thing I'm trying to learn about. How does one predict what will happen to the cold air in place based on 500mb charts?

This thread does kinda dilute the brand. I need CAPE to balance the irrational and unbalanced.

Gefs majority keep it south.

Yes and much different than 6z when the primary went to Cleveland and the secondary formed over NJ.

Much like summer thunderstorm rainfall totals, these meso-scale banding events can have extreme differences across very small distances; think lake effect snows??? I would dismiss it off hand?

Went from a congrats Chicago cutter with us blasting into the warm sector to a congrats Pittsburg Ohio valley low setup. Big change is also the placement of the high from promoting the S return flow/torching to more of CAD look that allows us to maybe get a thump of snow.

A good one from CTP: https://www.weather.gov/ctp/SnowStormTypes Miller A's are classic. Miller B's are trickier and can shaft many of us, but tend to produce well for areas NE of Baltimore. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miller_classification https://www.13newsnow.com/article/weather/severe-weather/noreasters-different-types-miller-a-miller-b-snowstorm-blizzard-winter-weather/291-945f5b59-6569-4dc9-b3a8-40b8921efade

And the least surprising post of the year goes to

Way too early to say

Oh so the previous claim of 19 days was incorrect. Still an impressive streak but they won’t be breaking that.

This is annoying having to read 2 threads now….cant u guys just post in the main thread and put the posters u dont wanna read on ignore?