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about 130 ish hours hours out we're much closer than we were last week when we started talking

Snow picking up here, just like HRRR showed.

NAM in range yet?

Yep sorry, I'm too used to severe weather. First season going full weenie on the winter weather.

Calling 15" in Easthampton including today's inch or so

At least it looks like winter out here in TX after the 3-4" sleet storm. But were practically shutdown. It was 5 last night and 12 tonight. I agree and its been a while since we've seen two back to back cold winters in the east. That's great. You're performing better than the last couple of seasons so far. Hopefully February and March deliver. How much for December and January, respectively?

I made a thread specifically for everyone to submit their final storm totals for this event w/ all the resources to find reports for the northeast. I'll also post the maps their when finished.

Correct Fozz, it's like my snow totals in SEMI vs where the White Lake office is. There is a higher elevation away from the water.

11/30: Mix of sleet and light rain for a couple hours before switching to light cold rain. 12/2: Mix early in the morning before flipping to hard, cold rain. 12/5: 2.25”. 2” in the man event and 0.25” later that evening/overnight. 12/13: 1.25” 1/17-18: T - An hour or so of sleet/flurries on the 17th and very light snow on the 18th 1/25: 9.25" - 5" of snow overnight followed by all-day pounding sleet Running Total: 12.75”

Anyone have a NBM map with pressure/Pryor for next weekend?

yea a lot of reports are several hours old, you can hover each one and see the reporting time and source.

The last SWO at DCA was MR and you are incorrect here. They actually hand measure snow.

Were you going up to the county next week?

that's nothing, a guy I work with just said on his property in wilbraham @900', was 36"...i legit laughed, I said a drift maybe, or total snow otg, but nobody in that area got over 20" as far as I saw anyway.

They had heavy snow over NC and us for the past storm so it doesn’t mean much.

WPC's caught on

Globals always struggle with mix lines. They excel at qpf but ptype is often more muddy. This is where forecasters earn there money. Applying historical/past experience and the region's favored climo outcomes can often make sense of this and produce a solid forecast that doesn't mirror any specific weather model output. Hobbiests should do the same. I agree, it was obvious based on soundings and mid level temp panels that the zr threat was overdone the euro. Easy mental adjustment. Models aren't perfect and rarely nail a forecast top to bottom. The nam 3k is unpredictable and inconsistent with qpf output but it's pretty good with thermals. Apply that skill to the euros qpf output and see what happens to your expectations. Snow maps and snow output is an algorithmic map and also a new phenomenon. They didn't exist when I joined Eastern wx and they have always been unreliable. They are a good snapshot/data point tool but without applying critical thought they should never be used verbatim as an expectation. In the past we used to (as a group) decide how much qpf will likely fall as snow and create our own estimates. I still do this and will continue. Snow maps are fun to look at but make terrible wives. Don't marry them. Use your brain. If you are using the ensemble snow maps at short range and setting expectations then you will often not be correct. Euro AI ens are great upper air tools in the mid range and seem pretty good at qpf in the mid range but when you're inside of 48-72 hours, op runs are the heavyweights by a large margin.

I’m very happy you showed the Hazards Forecast for the CONUS as it’s a pretty good product for stakeholders to utilize in order to look out for potential weather hazards in the medium range for decision making purposes. However, just to correct, and only doing this because it’s my office that does it, this is a WPC product, not SPC. SPC is a different office that specializes in severe and fire weather with mesoscale discussions for winter weather created as well. Just an FYI, we are different

Eh - I think it’s pretty clear where the favored spots are for something like this and that’s all this shows. Maybe we are saying the same thing but I don’t take this as a massive negative. I don’t think there’s enough confidence to have anywhere but the spots that jut into the Atlantic yet… doesn’t mean we’d be out of the game at all.

Took me a while this morning, my side of street is where all the snow goes. Shoveled when the snow changed to sleet, this morning when I woke up I had like 2-4” on my sidewalk of just crust I could walk across without sinking in .

And this is why the next week or ten days would be nice................

Let's just stomp this idea out right now. This is not going to cut. The closest we would get is a coastal runner, and that's going to be a dry(er) solution for most - and is not likely with a 530 DAM isobar over Kentucky. No.

That 13 is right on me and I have 19

it's well known the only reason Ji is still here is because he has pics of the mods in bed with the JMA

Big dendrites here with moderate snow. half inch new the past hour.