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The ACCESS BOM from Australia when I checked yesterday argued it does not really make it heavily into 7 and definitely not 8. I have found that model sometimes is better than the EPS/GEFS for the MJO in the longer range

Seems like deja vu where you have a storm track that looks somewhat promising in the 7-10 day range that shifts north with time and ends up traversing the Lakes to NNE/Southern Ontario. Meh.

Yeah we're starting out warm too, with temps in the 60s for most of this year. And a fast PacJet will prevent any arctic air from being pulled from the north. That's why the models have showed colder air and wintry weather towards middle of month but in due time, that will likely be diminished due to lack of cold air at the same time the northern stream energy comes through.

6” at the summit stake for depth. It looks a lot nicer than it really is (2-6” of dense snow). But in early November the look works.

I think it does get into phase 6/7. My big question is what happens when it reaches 7

After having a few chilly runs in late Oct for the period around Veteran’s Day and then backing off to mild, the model consensus since Nov 1st has gotten much colder for then with the last few runs being the coldest yet!

Actually you are so correct. But I’ll go out on a limb here and say that will certainly tone down…99% of the time it does. Unless this is the 1 percenter?

regardless of snow, looks like a decent cold shot across all guidance around the 10-12th. A bit OT but i started reading this last night to get into the winter spirit: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/61272028-northeaster highly recommend it for any other weather history buffs out there. It's an enjoyable read so far about a storm I really knew nothing about.

I think they radiate well there with the sandy soil. HVN and BDR were in the mid 40s most of the night.

looks great. how much and was that from Sat?

November.

Yes. So, even if there’s no more ACE, 2025 will end above the 1991-2020 average of 122.

We are at 132.6 total ACE now?

Groton taking the crown of coldest coastal spot in CT so far this fall.

Eps had a bit of a nod to the Gefs ideas with the MJO at 00z.

Just 0.02" here.

Can you add an angry emoji please. Sad doesn't cut it.

This made me laugh too hard

Past few runs of the EPS really trying to sell our first snow chcs of the season up here. Something to keep an eye on, fs

I've seen a lot more of these 12 to 15F differential mornings when comparing dawn temperatures between ORH and here in the Nashoba Valley than I normally do. It seems we are getting an anomalously large number of superb radiational cooling nights. That one factor appears to be over-achieving relative to "rational cooling night" climo - if there were ever a metric. It's just I've seen a lot more of these 12 to 15F differential morning comparing dawn temperatures between ORH and here in the Nashoba Valley than I normal due. Autumn is the time of year for that to happen, true. But lost count

Suck it up buttercup.

Wizards done... Capitals done

looks like a solidly above normal month ahead. Not by a lot, but it won’t be close to normal. New normal old normal whatever. if I still have my outdoor shower going at the beginning of November with no end date in sight, that’s a warm intro to winter

@Stormchaserchuck1 What was your final NAO number?

Yeah I’m ready for it to start warming up. I’m already sick of winter. lol