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The main reason the pattern was more favorable in 1995-1996 was the much more extensive and longer duration cold into April. Plus the -NAO patterns were able to lock in during those days from the late fall into the spring. This time around we got the fast NAO reversal in March shutting off the snows. No doubt 2025-2026 was the very best winter of the 2020s. So it’s good to know that we at least were able to get a weaker reflection of that season. This was the first time that a weak La Niña with the 3 ridge pattern over the Bering, Baja, and Greenland occurred in 30 years. But the ridges were much stronger limiting the cold. It also took two seasons following that one for a super El Niño to develop. This time the super El Niño was instantaneous right after the winter.

I am reading that this summer is the hottest summer in Spain since records began in 1961. The first half of our trip was in the drier central and southern regions where it was very hot, but also dry, so any shaded area was very tolerable. But Barcelona, and now Sóller in Majorca are hot AND humid. I think this week is 12 - 15 F above normal. It’s rough in the full sun, especially since we are averaging about 7 miles a day of walking. It’s been an awesome trip though because mid-Atlantic summers have prepped me well. Today we seek out our spot for the eclipse! It’ll be a different experience for this compared to the last two as totality is at 8:30PM here, so the setting eclipsed sun will be just above the sea.

66F for the low here, a few more humid days and then summers back broken end of next week?

Closest simple match I could get for May-July US precipitation was a blend 1963, 1976, 1997, 2003 as a blend. A lot of years in winter end up coldest where Summer was wettest, 2009-10 was very cold in the East/South following a very wet May-Jul as an example. Most of the recent Ninos are much better than observed for the past May-July. The SE ridge is essentially displaced v. the blend, so the moisture in the SE has to be shifted to the NW, to include a bit more of the Plains and AZ, with the core dryness also centered somewhat NW of shown. For highs and rain locally, June 1-Aug 8 is almost identical to a blend of four El Ninos: 1953, 1958, 1994, 2023. Very hot, very dry. 2026 Jun 1-Aug 8 mean high: 94.9. Blend: 94.05F 2026 Jun 1-Aug 8 total rain: 0.80". Blend: 0.73" Interestingly, that blend is pretty consistently snowy in Nov-Jan locally, and then much more inconsistent Feb-Apr. But February is probably one of the warmest months on record for the US in that blend.

IOD and PDO forecast based on the latest seasonal runs. Note my PDO calculation runs higher than other sources. I haven't wired these maps into my website yet but I will post the link if anybody wants it later.

Revamped this map. Been a long time since I posted this. Good look at the ranking from a dense rank perspective. July was a doosy for some of us in the N. Had to chuckle at MSP. It was one of the hottest avg's in the Midwest. Fit right in with Missouri wx The North Shore experienced cool wx due to colder Lake waters. The hotter air coming in from the SW helping stns reach near record/record warmth inland, but brought cool lake winds along the shore. Point casts failed a lot. Note: You may have to click on the map, then zoom for a better look. Or just zoom the post.

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Now the further E one is orange (40% within 7 days). The 0Z UKMET is back to developing this (12Z TC was from the further W TW): 0Z UKMETNEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURSFORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 9.3N 35.5WLEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WINDVERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------0000UTC 13.08.2026 96 9.1N 36.4W 1010 231200UTC 13.08.2026 108 9.8N 38.0W 1010 280000UTC 14.08.2026 120 11.1N 40.2W 1010 281200UTC 14.08.2026 132 12.6N 42.5W 1010 320000UTC 15.08.2026 144 15.0N 45.6W 1011 331200UTC 15.08.2026 156 17.0N 49.5W 1011 370000UTC 16.08.2026 168 18.3N 53.4W 1012 41

Thankfully that's all it was! Goodness gracious...last thing we needed is Stanley 2.0--may it never be, lol

This humidity is awful. Worst weather week in a long while. Would absolutely take the 100+ from earlier this summer over whatever this is

Chris, 1995-1996 was a perfect storm of a flawless pattern and extraordinary luck.....I get what you are saying about the impact of CC of the size of ridges, but we could get an identical pattern to 1995-1996 100 times over and not come away with record snowfall the length of the east coast. That season was a unicorn. The pattern last year was not as favorable, as not only was the NAO severely negative in the mean owed to the easterly QBO/solar min combo, but the WPO was also strongly negative. The pattern was simply more favorable that year, even if the ridge sizes were identical. Your point is valid, but that isn't the only reason that we didn't get a repeat of 1995-1996.

Been so busy at work I haven’t had time to post, but agree with everything above. The GDM opens a window and it looks legit, aided with a passing CCKW. Far from pristine but you get something to develop and track north of the Antilles and you get a decent ACE producer.

The day after day flowers signed an absurd deal w the Ravens, he has a quad contusion in practice.