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We have seen 2.5 inches of snow in 4 years. .625 per season! We love decimals here in the foothills.

I'm sure it will be better then the possible single digits that are forecast here.

CMC has light snow for most (moderate snow for east new england) ICON has light snow (moderate snow for east new england) GFS has snow off shore Just waiting on UKMET and Euro

Agree, this is a big player I believe. I don't know a whole heck of a lot about the basic blueprints of forecast models (the math/physics, different schemes...I'm hoping that may actually be covered in my advanced forecasting class) but I do know this Data assimilation and being able to properly and accurately parameterize are detrimental to the success and accuracy of a forecast model. This is what made the euro superior for all those years, the euro had superior assimilation and parameterization. This is exactly why I am not sold on AI yet. We need to drastically improve these capabilities and this is where (hopefully) quantum computing is going to come a long ways.

Hug the 12 NAM for now LOL this is GSP 260118/0700Z 67 34005KT 38.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 260118/0800Z 68 35009KT 36.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 260118/0900Z 69 34008KT 34.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 260118/1000Z 70 35006KT 33.0F SNPL 2:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02 28| 66| 7 260118/1100Z 71 01005KT 33.0F SNRAPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.025 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.05 68| 18| 14 260118/1200Z 72 01006KT 32.6F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.027 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.07 88| 0| 12 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 260118/1300Z 73 01007KT 32.3F SNOW 6:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.026 3:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.10 100| 0| 0 260118/1400Z 74 01008KT 31.7F SNOW 8:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012 4:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.11 100| 0| 0 260118/1500Z 75 01007KT 30.8F SNOW 8:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.049 6:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.16 100| 0| 0 260118/1600Z 76 01008KT 30.1F SNOW 11:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.062 8:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.22 100| 0| 0 260118/1700Z 77 01008KT 29.7F SNOW 7:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.060 8:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.28 100| 0| 0 260118/1800Z 78 36007KT 30.3F SNOW 7:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.024 7:1| 1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.30 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 260118/1900Z 79 01006KT 30.1F SNOW 10:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.031 8:1| 2.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.34 100| 0| 0 260118/2000Z 80 01007KT 30.1F SNOW 14:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008 8:1| 2.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.34 100| 0| 0

They are nice. I'm just frustrated lol. Wasn't that beast in 2003 an overruning event? It dumped all day long as the moisture overran the boundary. Then the low came up the coast that night and dropped 3" of sleet on top of 20 inches of snow.

Can we beat the half inch during the pre Christmas event? LOL

Yeah I think it's about 28km depending on latitude. And the lack of model physics would also contribute to smoothing since it's using purely statistics and averaging.

a snow map from the GFS is going to be hilarious

you are all better than PB GFI was

man... this all happened when that relay took place overnight with the GFS. this is also about when it finally pulled the plug on this event today, too ... right when I observed the ballast of the S/W mechanics were over land i'm growing more and more convinced that the data assimilation is getting caught with its pants down. i'm also beginning to suspect we are exposing an explanation for the mysterious mid range amplitude loss that seems to be pretty dependable - altho i see that in other guidance, too.

Looks like strung out crap, not consolidated. Hopefully there’s some light snow from that but that’s what we’ve been getting over and over again the last few winters.

Overrunning is the simplest way outside of a classic Miller A. You aren't worrying about any messy wavr interactions--just moisture into cold air. And I believe we had that happen a time or two in 2014.

I thought it was curtains?

So far, 12z models are pretty “blah” for both Saturdays light event and Sundays system appears to slide to the south and east fairly flat. I hate kicking the can down the road as before you know it, its already March, but we may need to wait until later next week to get the southern branch more involved as the cold presses more .

Biggest snowstorm I've personally encountered that did not involve lake effect/enhancement was 17" on March 4-5, 2015 in Kentucky. I just happened to be visiting family at the right time. March most definitely has the "juice" - but sun angle and temps coming together with the juice is what is more difficult to achieve.

God we suck at snow. We are a bunch of losers. .

I honestly have lost all confidence in the GFS. Go with the EURO and CMC.

EPS has been very stable for a full 24 hours. The spread is not that large either. I don't expect a big shift at 12z. But it could still shift tonight or tomorrow. A minor model error in a shortwave in northern Canada today can have a big impact on the height field on Sunday. Trofs that touch the Gulf can morph quickly. I usually look at the NAM for short term (<48 hours) trends with these types of events.

I could see AI being heavily influenced in thinking because you have a nrn stream moving in and srn stream coming up the coast that there will be clean phasing. Like Runnaway said, maybe there is also resolution at play here..or something to this degree? I mean the vorticity field almost seems "too smoothed"...too clean.

GFS ensemble mean.

FYI, today's drought monitor map shows at least abnormally dry conditions in every state but one -- California: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

I meant more than you think would be frustrated with a couple of inches. lol

Second half of next week looks like a fun stretch for whoever can stack waves

Halfway to a January shutout!