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I'm not......buuuuut, you can't dispute strong climo evidence to the contrary if this month ends up as it looks like it may.

I got rid of my snowblower this past summer. I was sick and tired of having to reset the tires on the rims every fall and struggle with getting it to start. For the last several winters I think I used it once or twice, other than that it took up garage space and collected dust. Of course now we've had two snowfalls in the last few weeks that I could have used it already.

The big question for me is to what degree is this permanent, which is a pretty polarizing issue, but I have maintained a more moderate stance.

I think we all want snow, but some people like to cover their ears when discussion of the overall pattern is not favorable. we certainly don’t know about individual threats, but generally, we have an idea about the overall pattern structure. And those clues give us an idea of how difficult it will be to achieve winter weather. Reading some of the posts here and some long range “expert” articles, I’m pretty pessimistic on the rest of winter. I think it’s going to be very hostile on the whole, and if you aren’t a snow stake at 3k on stow mountain, I think there’s going to be a lot of outside looking in. This isn’t to say we couldn’t get an event during this period, but you have to do some actual calculating as opposed to dismissing bad outcomes because they are in the extended.

Since we’re in grasping at straws stage, 6z euro AI has a snow/mix event after Xmas. Actually a nice setup and close to something a lot bigger. Interestingly (?), overnight EPS pushes a trough over us in the same time period and retrogrades the pig ridge in the Plains for a few days.

looking at overnighters, it def looks like the see saw continues, but thankfully enough cold "close" to suppress the f'in torch option. I'm calling it a wash, and win as long as its not days n days +5 -10 anomalies. We've been there done that a plenty. As per GEFS AO/NAO look to head solidly neg, and while PNA also is rather neg at same time, it would argue for a zonal flow with cold "closer". Not great, but not terrible either

No, but I think this stretch is definitely more attributable to the velocities coming out of the Pacific as a byproduct of that west Pac warmth, which is exacerbating the influence of the ongoing Pacific cold phase on snowfall. I think the 1980s were more a byproduct of a strongly +NAO multidecadal cycle and some bad luck. There is def. some bad luck in this stretch, too....but it's more than that.

From NOAA, one can see how much the NAO has dropped since just yesterday on the GEFS: Yesterday’s GEFS NAO (12/16); Today’s GEFS NAO (12/17): note the biggest changes are for 12/22-26, only 5-9 days out. Yesterday they were ~0 while today they’re -0.7 to -1.0:

Do you have any blog posts which have explored the snowless periods of previous decades? I am really curious how this stretch compares/contrasts to those periods. I've always been under the impression those periods were the product of colder/drier winters (or moreso drier) while as this stretch we are still pulling off subpar seasons even when we're cold/wet. I mean who cares if we've gone through this before in the 1980's if its for completely different reasons.

Sometimes ignorance is bliss.....the veil of cluelessness will allow some to stare at guidance cross-eyed all season and weenie anyone who suggests that it may not snow, but climo is in fact a useful tool.

Despite the -PDO having leveled off, I think its still severely screwing us with shifting the East Asian jet north.

Wow nice they are both diving negative!!!!

Ineedweenies can bun it all he wants, but climo is indisputable and it is what it is. It doesn't apply to him, anyway...this is more for eastern Mass.

wow Dec 2015 didn't go below freezing once lol

I'll tell you one thing...if I come out of this month in single digits for snowfall, my outlook on the season will absolutely shift. I can only find one cool ENSO season since 1950 that did that and ended up sniffing normal, and that is 1966, which was a cool-neutral year.

December 1917 was the inverse of December 2015. Climatological Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - December 1917 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Sum 728 526 - - 933 0 3.52 23.5 Average 31.7 17.0 24.1 -13.9 - - - - Normal 44.8 31.2 38.0 - 837 0 4.14 5.4 1917-12-01 45 39 42.0 0.0 23 0 0.73 0.0 1917-12-02 44 26 35.0 -6.7 30 0 0.00 0.0 1917-12-03 41 19 30.0 -11.4 35 0 0.00 0.0 1917-12-04 M 29 M M M M 0.00 0.0 1917-12-05 43 29 36.0 -4.9 29 0 0.00 0.0 1917-12-06 M 29 M M M M 0.00 0.0 1917-12-07 M 21 M M M M 0.00 0.0 1917-12-08 43 17 30.0 -10.0 35 0 0.78 4.5 1917-12-09 43 14 28.5 -11.2 36 0 0.00 0.0 1917-12-10 16 7 11.5 -28.0 53 0 0.02 0.2 1917-12-11 22 9 15.5 -23.7 49 0 0.00 0.0 1917-12-12 20 15 17.5 -21.4 47 0 0.03 0.3 1917-12-13 32 14 23.0 -15.6 42 0 0.80 8.0 1917-12-14 30 22 26.0 -12.4 39 0 0.80 8.0 1917-12-15 M 11 M M M M 0.00 0.0 1917-12-16 19 8 13.5 -24.4 51 0 T T 1917-12-17 30 15 22.5 -15.1 42 0 0.05 0.5 1917-12-18 33 20 26.5 -10.9 38 0 0.00 0.0 1917-12-19 34 25 29.5 -7.6 35 0 0.00 0.0 1917-12-20 39 32 35.5 -1.4 29 0 0.00 0.0 1917-12-21 43 26 34.5 -2.1 30 0 0.00 0.0 1917-12-22 39 20 29.5 -6.9 35 0 0.00 0.0 1917-12-23 32 12 22.0 -14.2 43 0 0.00 0.0 1917-12-24 41 25 33.0 -2.9 32 0 0.00 0.0 1917-12-25 M 28 M M M M 0.11 T 1917-12-26 M 18 M M M M 0.00 0.0 1917-12-27 M 10 M M M M 0.00 0.0 1917-12-28 31 10 20.5 -14.6 44 0 0.00 0.0 1917-12-29 M -2 M M M M 0.20 2.0 1917-12-30 4 -13 -4.5 -39.2 69 0 0.00 0.0 1917-12-31 4 -9 -2.5 -37.0 67 0 0.00 0.0 Climatological Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - December 2015 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Sum 1755 1331 - - 465 0 4.40 0.3 - Average 56.6 42.9 49.8 11.8 - - - - 0.0 Normal 44.8 31.2 38.0 - 837 0 4.14 5.4 2015-12-01 52 42 47.0 5.0 18 0 0.36 0.0 0 2015-12-02 56 45 50.5 8.8 14 0 0.16 0.0 0 2015-12-03 55 44 49.5 8.1 15 0 T 0.0 0 2015-12-04 53 39 46.0 4.8 19 0 0.00 0.0 0 2015-12-05 54 35 44.5 3.6 20 0 0.00 0.0 0 2015-12-06 55 33 44.0 3.4 21 0 0.00 0.0 0 2015-12-07 58 34 46.0 5.7 19 0 0.00 0.0 0 2015-12-08 49 38 43.5 3.5 21 0 0.00 0.0 0 2015-12-09 53 33 43.0 3.3 22 0 0.00 0.0 0 2015-12-10 62 48 55.0 15.5 10 0 T 0.0 0 2015-12-11 60 46 53.0 13.8 12 0 0.00 0.0 0 2015-12-12 65 48 56.5 17.6 8 0 0.00 0.0 0 2015-12-13 68 54 61.0 22.4 4 0 0.00 0.0 0 2015-12-14 67 52 59.5 21.1 5 0 0.24 0.0 0 2015-12-15 68 52 60.0 21.9 5 0 0.05 0.0 0 2015-12-16 53 43 48.0 10.1 17 0 T 0.0 0 2015-12-17 59 50 54.5 16.9 10 0 1.02 0.0 0 2015-12-18 56 37 46.5 9.1 18 0 T 0.0 0 2015-12-19 41 34 37.5 0.4 27 0 0.00 0.0 0 2015-12-20 45 33 39.0 2.1 26 0 0.00 0.0 0 2015-12-21 54 34 44.0 7.4 21 0 0.00 0.0 0 2015-12-22 61 52 56.5 20.1 8 0 0.06 0.0 0 2015-12-23 66 50 58.0 21.8 7 0 1.44 0.0 0 2015-12-24 71 59 65.0 29.1 0 0 0.03 0.0 0 2015-12-25 63 54 58.5 22.8 6 0 0.03 0.0 0 2015-12-26 60 48 54.0 18.5 11 0 0.02 0.0 0 2015-12-27 62 46 54.0 18.7 11 0 0.08 0.0 0 2015-12-28 46 34 40.0 4.9 25 0 0.05 0.1 0 2015-12-29 45 34 39.5 4.6 25 0 0.60 0.2 0 2015-12-30 49 38 43.5 8.8 21 0 0.24 0.0 0 2015-12-31 49 42 45.5 11.0 19 0 0.02 0.0 0

My current temp is 31.6 and it will climb above freezing at any moment. This will end a nice little 79 hour streak of continuous sub-freezing temps going back to 2am on Sunday morning. The past 3 days have been wonderfully wintry.

https://x.com/i/status/2001009884540834205 Fwiw (not much, probably)

I legit am nervous. I know its early, but in the grand scheme of things, we're already assessing how the pattern looks to evolve post Christmas into New Years. If that period ends up sucking then we'll be looking towards mid-January...and so forth. I truly believe we need to completely flush out the entire atmosphere...we probably need a good multi year stretch where ENSO is a non factor and then hope we are truly on the -PDO decline. At some point the odds have to return to our favor but the background state is far from it, IMO.

All of those events will be showers followed by inverted "FUs" for us.

Upton is famous for not accurately predicting sky conditions - example is many times they post Mostly Sunny and then instability clouds start developing to the north and west and cloud up the skies here - this happens quite bit in the Spring also............

Every run that you loop up there just crushes them one after another. Is Nick still up there in the Labrador region?

Dang, only 3 of the top 25 are in my lifetime. We missed the best Decembers.