All Activity

Our products have deadlines, so we can’t adjust the overnight forecast with the 06z guidance. If things remain like they are, it’ll be reflected in the next update.

https://www.facebook.com/share/p/184f9zjK13/?mibextid=wwXIfr

31.7° with flurries. Very little sun so far today.

Yeah, I saw Tim Kelly saying that this would be trying to push GW agenda. These people are freaking psycho.

Your son, me, and Cold Miser too.

Classic spring setup there. Away from the water warm, chilly near the ocean/sound

Everyone measured wrong across 3 states? Giant conspiracy to push GW agenda? Beer? We may never know. Either way F storm. Run of the mill 10-18" forgettable coastal.

Oh wow, awesome man!

What I meant by stay there, was consistent days in the 60’s and 70’s. 98% of the time it won’t last long. And sure, I certainly remember and agree that there’s been some solid stretches…I’d take that in a heartbeat. But it looks(at least in the long range that it doesn’t seem to want to last this March)…but of course that’s very much subject to change too.

Sound like the first half of March will be AN temp wise.

Lol…he has the same birthday as me. And yes, 2010 got nice quick, and lasted.

2016 - 2020 seemed to feature a balm blast every Feb, Mar, or Apr in that stretch. Just sayn' not sure what the conversation is otherwise haha

I haven’t seen any guidance in recent runs still showing a solid SWFE, you?

Might be some wild temp gradients if that heat wave verifies, probably mid to high 70s in NJ and maybe low 50s on LI. Does not look like it lasts terribly long, another cold stretch could easily occur by mid month or slightly before

Everyone always mentions 2012 for warmth in March, but forget 2010. My son was born March 16, 2010, when we brought him home on the 20th I was in shorts and tee shirt. Must have been around 75

Sunday could be an inch or two....we'll see. Beyond that next week it's kind of a disaster on model guidance....I could see another decent SWFE if things eject right, but it could also just end up as shredded mess or warmer if everything is delayed....hard to say. We definitely need to watch the Quebec highs....they've been undermodeled much of the winter in the medium range. That is no guarantee they will continue to be under modeled, but it's something to keep in the back of our minds.

How do we define “stay there”? I guess when you say it will reload late March I took it as going back to the same pattern we’ve been in…which I would clap back with “we just don’t know”. Obviously 60s and 70s this early are always relegated to 1-5 days at most. But there’s been some good warmth stretches in March aside from 2012. I mentioned 98 the other day. 2010 was warm right through all of MAM. 2021 and 2016 had quite a few warm Mar and Apr days too. But yeah, obviously no one is getting daily 60s and 70s in spring. That’s sorta rhetorical.

5 straight months (Dec - Apr) with 10"+ where I was living in Port Jeff, plus some snow in Nov. We may beat the season's snow total someday, but not sure we'll ever see 6 months with snow on LI.

Yes I made it with my own hands

Yeah Dec 2022 Cat 4 always seemed weird but looking closer its a Cat 4 for upper midwest/plains and Cat 1 for Northeast only Jan 25-26th is not on that list https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/maps/rsi/

wet signal has been strong but looks to be the real deal, hope to avoid too much of a miss south situation but i know that area needs rain bad

thats the issue---its not the track....the wave is dying

you can almost see the snow depth decreasing in real time

I would ass/u/me this is your home made forecast ?

It's an interesting op for temperature nerds like me. I'm hugely into the diurnal recovery stuff in the spring... for some weird fetish. ha This snow pack is pervasive and deep, and fresh and white and like a mirror. Albedo is about intense as a second sun... astronauts in orbit have to wear sun glasses when passing proximal out our earth coordinates. That will impede some heating potential in a static atmosphere. But this atmosphere should be moving some... not sure how much that mixing offsets (if any) any of this. There's some competing processes there for negative and positive feedbacks. Interesting. I suspect we are colder at night in the interiors when decoupling these three nights. Where cold accumulation over a cryosphere is deluxe proficient and so forth.. Then in the mornings, calm with nape sun but 900 feet over the tree tops, it's WSW flow moving along at 15 to 20kts.. The NAM sort of suggests this inversion offset to warming potential - tho taken to make the example, only. The BOS FOUS grid 54000843631 00714 182013 43030400 60000785726 00010 162412 42040500 This is Saturday at 12z (7am) and 18z (1pm) for Logan. The wind there ("2013") is SW to WSW at 10 to 15kts in the middle boundary layer..about 500 feet over top the Prudential Tower, at 7am, and persists at 1pm. The set of bold on the right is the temperatures at three sigma levels (distance from the ground in atmospheric pressure): 980 mb, 900 mb, 800 mbs. You can kind of use these as loose proxy for various interpretations, for and against.. In this case, note the 980 ( near the ground), is 03. That means 3C. At 900mb, about mid way up the boundary layer, it is a degree warmer at both intervals. That's proooobably the NAM being "indirectly aware" of the limitation at lowest levels due to albedo feedback. I don't think the model does any kind of discrete environmental initial sampling like physically asking whether atmosphere is standing barefoot on a frozen puddle, but it probably is getting a detection at the grid scale for some limits, some how. I'm not sure... but, with a intense albedo in the region, some limitation intuitively fits. Regardless, Saturday ( and the RH levels in this data above suggests mostly sunny), will have light winds that at times is seemingly calm, with nearing equinox sun power capable of burning Aryan youth. It will be the first day that felt that way since probably last October.