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  2. sbnwx85
    Legit laughed out loud at that output. What do you mean an Illinois MCS won’t do a U-turn and move northwest and slam into another random MCS in Iowa?
  3. A-L-E-K
  4. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
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  5. tamarack
    We probably step off the summer plateau on Wednesday. After 42 days (July 1 thru tomorrow) with our mean between 65 and 66, August 12 is likely to be 64.xy, as the long slide begins. (The equivalent winter bottom is much shorter - the period within 1° F of the current coldest, 13.55°, is only 12 days, January 18-29.)
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yup...which is why they are my two top polar analogs.
  7. SnowGoose69
    Looks like 23-01z. Some models suggest activity tomorrow well north of the mid-Atlantic activity, likely keying in on a boundary or subtle shortwave but I'm thinking tomorrow is dry
  8. NEG NAO
    its shrinking as it moves east - also there are no severe warnings with it SPC about 2 hours ago thought a watch was possible but no watch has been issued
  9. ineedsnow
    about to leave for the Southwick's zoo.. seems like a great day for it
  10. Stormlover74
    Looks like Middlesex on south for that first one
  11. GaWx
    1982-3 and 2015-6 are two super strong ones with both a +QBO and descending solar fwiw. 1957-8 was a super strong with a +QBO and was barely after peak.
  12. A-L-E-K
    nest with a goofy looking convective evolution hate seeing our friends in droughtville struggling
  13. Paleocene
    12z 3k NAM has a line moving thru the DC metro around 21z. Latest HRRRs are less enthused.
  14. *Flash*
    Good morning, all! Long time, no talk. I'm going to share more specific thoughts as we get closer to DJF, but for now I want to offer a reminder for those newer to the forum. When we start talking super ENSO, you're inevitably going to hear about the climatology-backed warm biases—and understandably so, given precedent. But speaking strictly as a layman with more than 30 years of lived weather experience in Middle Tennessee, I've learned not to equate the seasonal mean with our ability to capitalize on a winter-weather window. Those windows may be fewer or shorter in a super ENSO regime, but every super ENSO winter I've experienced here has still produced at least one notable storm to hang a hat on. Are we overdue for a dud? Absolutely. But some of the best winter-weather windows I've experienced have been sandwiched inside otherwise meh winters on paper. Give me a highly amplified, mobile, extreme pattern with radical variables in play, and I'll take my chances.
  15. cyclone77
    The early morning round that some of the models had for this area ended up not existing. Looks like the late day action will be another northeast IL hit. Dogshit pattern lol.
  16. NEG NAO
    # 1 threat with these storms this afternoon is the wind - usually strongest right at the beginning of the storm unless one is in an MCS complex where it lasts most of the storm
  17. yoda
    So are the storms currently in Ohio the ones we should be watching for this afternoon?
  18. forkyfork
    warm and rainy
  19. CoastalWx
    He's just regurgitating what the ECMWF shows.
  20. WxUSAF
    Rain looks just about done
  21. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
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  22. SnoSki14
    Couple of MCS complexes look to move through. One in east PA will clip us over next couple hours with much more significant one in the evening
  23. Today
  24. tiger_deF
    The first tropical wave (10/10) is looking rough, but this is the first time all season that there's been a healthy looking disturbance in the eastern MDR with a good moisture pocket. Low level vorticity is starting to increase as well
  25. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
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  26. 40/70 Benchmark
    The westerly QBO and the descending solar are two red flags for that kind of an outcome in the seasonal mean, neither of which were present in 2009....not to mention nearly 20 years of CC.
  27. NEG NAO
    Slight Risk of Severe has been expanded by SPC east into our area - also that area of showers/storms in eastern PA is not the main event - look further west in eastern Ohio - also expect additional pop ups to develop starting at some point this afternoon when the atmosphere has had enough and needs to develop storms........who gets what and where lines of storms develop is the # 1 question
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