All Activity

I’m wondering if despite the clear warming trend of the Euro Weeklies related to its insistence of a stubborn potent SER along with the current progged switch to a +AO if there’s lower than normal confidence due to a combo of the MJO taking a track that’s often cold (though far from always as we know) and the current very weak SPV, which typically takes 2+ weeks to bring the E US persistent dominating cold.

big 'un, cne too

That’s one possible factor that has led me to continue to monitor the period. By the end of November, I think there will be greater clarity.

It's here folks!

Good write-up but I doubt you will get a warmup when the MJO goes into 8. Watch the models trend colder like they did with this upcoming period ahead next week.

I may be one of the few hoping to whiten the ground from the first storm. Backside Wed evening overnight to Thanksgiving morning "may" bring a streamer burst or two if things line-up just right. NCEP says I have a chance

Caps with the sweet W tonight! After the disaster Tampa game, this was a nice bounce back.

That's a great question and there was plenty of speculation, but the fact remains that it was Smith's demands specific to Gateway getting King that led to the situation. Should some blame go to the school board? Absolutely. But that doesn't mean that Smith shouldn't be blamed as well. From my understanding (I haven't followed PSU football in awhile), there seems to be an unhappy subset of fans too that see his pins as a political play/attempt to strong-arm Penn State and.... hey... I suppose it worked for him once with Gateway, why not again with Penn State?

You mean this one?

Can you tell me how one gets such God like powers that they can have a whole school board and administration eagerly on Their knees waiting to serve them? Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

I obviously trust yours. You just don’t do the pretty maps, and as you know i love dirty pictures.

Yea, I was thinking that based solely on climo, the rain/snow line ends up much further north than currently forecast. Not a bad look, though, for late November. As you say, hopefully a sign of good things to come.

18z gfs has a nce snower for NNE 12/3

As a Gateway graduate during that time and as someone who was there during the "Justin King" debacle - it was just that. A debacle. King went to the school board early on and told them that they had to invest heavily in the football facilities or he was taking King elsewhere. Gateway did - gluttonously so at the direction of Smith. So much so that the academics suffered and still continue to 20 years later/never recovered. Just take a look at where they rank now amongst western PA schools - quite a far cry from just before Smith took over. There's no excuse to have Pentium 2's running Windows 95 when the new weight room has Xbox 360's on every TV. There was no money left for anything outside of football, but they had new everything all the time with everything paid for, despite other sports playing with broken down equipment and non-athletic organizations having to self-finance. Then Smith skedaddled as soon as King went to PSU and left Gateway in the lurch. No mentoring of anyone, no hope for continued success. Just trying every way he could to get King ahead. He was a diva and a selfish one at that, plain and simple. On top of that, and VERY UNFORTUNATELY, any time anyone said a word against him or his approach, it was turned into a race discussion. It had nothing to do with race imo, and everything to do with him taking the piss out of Gateway for all they were worth. I suppose he's done okay at PSU, but in Monroeville? He's still public enemy #1 for taking a Blue Ribbon school and shifting focus to football, wringing them dry, and taking the midnight train away. And that's from someone who went to Gateway AND Penn State.

Continuing the illustration showing how I'm thinking about December 1-10 and December 11-25. Here's the framework I am using. The CPC 8-14 day forecast is a good illustration of how I think things will evolve during the December 1-10 period: The risks of a faster turn to a warmer pattern in much of the eastern U.S. (not the Great Lakes, northern New England, eastern Canada) have increased with growing ensemble consensus for a predominantly AO+ pattern. Composite WPO-/EPO-/AO+/PNA- 500 mb Height Anomalies: ECMWF Weekly 500 mb Forecast for December 8-15: Composite WPO-/EPO-/AO+/PNA- Temperature Anomalies: ECMWF Weekly 500 mb 2m Temperature Anomaly Forecast for December 8-15: Right now, the guidance is still in a low-skill timeframe. What's noteworthy is the change that has taken place in the past few days. For example, this was the ECMWF weekly forecast for the December 18-15 period from three days earlier: If the guidance holds or strengthens the forecast AO+ beyond December 10, the warmer outcome could become the baseline for that period with perhaps a mid-month shift to the milder pattern. The 18z GEFS is also suggesting that the EPO could go positive. If so, that would further increase the risks for a turn toward milder conditions. In sum, December 1-10 still remains on track. One should see cold move into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes and then spread eastward. The Southeast will remain warm due to the resilient SE Ridge. Uncertainty beyond December 10 has increased and the risk of a shift toward a warmer pattern has increased. The guidance will need to be watched closely to see if its turn toward an AO+ persists.

Yeah, I saw that. It’s actually “ahead” of the euro now.

Would be rare indeed to see that kind of snowfall this early. Though I guess we all know to slash ratios at this time of year. Positive would be this type of event falls into a number of winter projections this year. So perhaps it’s a tell.

So, I have read that the recent eruption of Hayle Gubbi sent "large amounts" of SO2 into the strat. Does anyone have more details?

A generally milder than normal pattern will likely continue through next Wednesday when a system could bring a period of rain. However, exceptional warmth appears unlikely. The closing days of November will likely turn colder. There is potential for New York City's Central Park to experience its first freeze of 2025. The 1991-2020 normal first data is November 21. The 1961-1990 baseline was November 11. Last winter's first freeze occurred on November 30. The opening days of December will turn milder. However, colder conditions could begin to develop during the second half of that week and continue through the second week of December. Severe cold appears unlikely through at least the first 10 days of December. Afterward, the pattern evolution will depend, in part, on how the imminent stratospheric warming event propagates. Meanwhile, today will be Central Park's 1,395th consecutive day without daily snowfall of 4" or more. That breaks the record of 1,394 days was set during February 22, 1929 through December 16, 1932. That stretch ended with 6.7" daily snowfall on December 17, 1932. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around November 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.16°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through at least mid-winter. The SOI was -1.40 today. The fall of 39.57 points was the largest such fall since April 27, 2006 when the SOI fell 42.35 points. It was also the fourth largest decline on record. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.384 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 90% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.7° (1.3° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.0° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

A wide range of countries have increasing EV market share with the global share over 20% this year.. Link below has EV and plug-in EV market penetration for 61 countries. There's a wide range between countries with the US and North America a relative low penetration area. Another growing EV market is Heavy-Duty trucks, which are ramping quickly in China (2nd link), reaching a 28% market share there in Aug 25. https://robbieandrew.github.io/carsales/ https://apnews.com/article/china-truck-lng-ev-diesel-transport-70f3d612de4b45b6f954a7f557f7f741

If that L can eject out of the Rockies a bit quicker , it can catch up, be a bit flatter and ride that lead wave.

Yes, that's true. The biggest 2-day snowfall during the current streak was 3.2" (February 13-14, 2024). The biggest 2-day snowfall during the prior record streak was December 2, 1929 (3.9").

Get the Chips. Have used them for many years. Find them on Amazon