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We all staying here for the 06z NAM??

All jokes aside though— we’d probably all feel much more confident in this if the majority of guidance didn’t put our CWA on the western fringe of the coastal and we had the euro on board. GFS takes a very delicate setup and portrays a near perfect dance between multiple pieces of energy. And it’s been damn impressive to see it stick to its guns. I hope to fucking hell it’s right for once. Crazier things have happened. The others try and some get very close but don’t quite get there, which is still also a possible outcome. Or something in between. We’re 2 days out. A spread of 4-18+” on models 48 hours out for DC to Baltimore is pretty rough lol. I’d feel MUCH better if I’m CAPE or the Jersey shore to BOS. Still a little shaky in these parts given the setup, especially west of 95. Hopeful the inverted trough pans out and somebody between 15 and 95 gets smacked. I feel good, Randy. I’d love to feel great.

This is a valid point. I think the problem is that we have been burnt so many times by betting against the euro. You would think that within 70 hours the euro would have a good handle on this. With that being said, euro has performed poorly lately. Regardless of final outcome, all models have performed poorly with this system. Euro has been atrocious with this, even if it ends up being correct in its current depiction.

Me

Me but that’s because im at work lol

Let’s flip the script here…if all the models were showing a miss/graze and the Euro was the only one showing a snowstorm, which would you go with? The rest of the models won when this scenario happened with Juno in 2015.

Yep, flurrying here too

Sorry, I'm late to this but I just saw this and it brought back some great memories seeing you and some of the older posters doing play by play. It's really nice to see you back.

Yup

my guess is 1-2 inches Hampton Roads, 2-3 inches DC, 3-6 inches east of Philly, 6 inches NYC, 10 inches Boston.

And the million dollar question is...adjust which way? We shall see...

Same here in Vernon, NJ

Who's still up?

GFS has been steady until this point, while Euro has been flip flopping

After looking at the Euro further I believe it's coastal low is misplaced. This is not how a typical occluded low looks. There should be a double barrel low with one surface low at the east end of the coma head at the triple point and another one at the west end with a curved band connecting the two. The Euro has one funny looking low in the middle with a little hat of precip to the north. The Gfs and Icon have a much easier to understand solution, the surface low forms right where the 500mb energy hits the coast.

seems like Hurricane is hugging the EURO. This place will burn if the EURO begins the Lucy pull

It's currently snowing in Port Washington...WTF???

You know damn well you’d be shitting your pants if you were home, Randy! [emoji1787]

Both of those storms here in Harrington were the worst snow storms I have ever witnessed in my life. That was back in my high school days. Geez I'm getting old...lol

True...and same thing with Europe too

Still a significant west lean with some deep members; steady as she goes at this point.

At this point the ens is going to pretty much mirror the op run.

It’s going to be too warm unless that thing cranks. Total rate dependent system south of NYC. But if this tucks a sub 980 into the coast temps won’t be an issue in the deform band areas. You might be a little south but im starting to think MA to NE east of 95 gets buried

9.3”—haven’t gotten much since 8pm but the upslope machine is trying to get started. We’ll see if I can pick up a little more by the time I need to clear the board again later this morning.

Snowstorms are better then spring. Spring is nice....but let's not get crazy