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Today's Highs: PHL: 84 New Brnswck: 83 EWR: 82 BLM: 81 JFK: 81 no intra hour highs TTN: 81 ACY: 81 ISP: 80 TEB: 80 LGA: 80 NYC: 79

No, it isn't because the EURO is more accurate in the Pacific THIS YEAR. If you want to say all seasonal guidance should be taken with a grain of salt, I agree....but CANSIPS requires a larger grain.

Actually, I was just playing the part of a weenie with JI. But, since you mentioned it, analyzing this year's Euro seasonal in light of a failed Euro seasonal forecast from 23/24 is sorta beyond absurd too.

Ji and "great assessment" isn't something you hear every day lmao

I think the AO will be negative.....EPO and NAO+ in the seasonal mean.

Great assessment.

That logic so absurd considering how poorly the CANSIPS is doing THIS YEAR in the Pacific.

We need something . Anything but this incessant boredom

lots of fires incoming once leaves fall

Thankfully a nice Steiner here today . Pretty decent day other than a sprinkle . This looks to be about 3-4 weeks of very little rain for the region . By early Octorcher things should be quite dry

It will happen well before 2:00 tomorrow

A nice evening for watching Football! Light northerly breezes filtering in dryer air has arrived!

A disappointing 0.20" today.

Cansips did better with temps around here last winter than the warmer Euro. So we toss.

Central Ohio has 9" more rainfall in 31 days, than at this time last year

I remember that too ….that was probably the most disappointing part of the winter since we were waiting the whole winter for February. . Of course, if the model showed the opposite, it would’ve verified.

A cool Labor Day weekend has commenced. Temperatures will generally peak in the middle and upper 70s. Readings in New York City could fall into the lower 60s with widespread 50s outside the City. The cool weather will likely continue into the middle of next week. By midweek, readings could return to the lower 80s. Another push of cooler air could arrive by Friday or Saturday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.6°C for the week centered around August 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.93°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.50°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -16.70 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.627 today.

Seems like this is similar to the 2018 eruption, which had a pretty trivial impact.

Went from beautiful to shit right around 2pm. Hope we don’t have to deal with any of this tomorrow too.

Can see the cold front pushing south through the area defined by the line of showers on the radar. The SPC surface map shows the wind shift too!

My bad, you're right. It seems like it was an eruption of moderate magnitude at best, though. I wouldn't anticipate major impacts. This is what I based that assumption on, which I should have pasted in addition to that chart for added context. How its Current Scale and Potential Rankings Compare Compared to its History: The current eruption has blasted an ash column 15 kilometers (50,000 feet) high into the atmosphere. This height mirrors the paroxysmal 2018 Anak Krakatau eruption, which ultimately released roughly 173,000 metric tons (173 kt) of \(SO_{2}\). If the 2026 eruption sustains this intensity, it could reach similar levels. [1, 2, 3]