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I certainly didn't expect big blocking late December...welcomed deviation if that comes to fruition.

You can read all about it here starting with this thread from 15 years ago

Funny but. True!!!

https://beta.pivotalweather.com/models/hrdps/prateptype-imp/us_ne?run=2025122206&forecastHour=48 Also here... the Herpes model

Low of 18 here. So, what's the skinny for tonight? Any chance the kids will have a delay tomorrow or are the amounts too meager and the temps too marginal?

Nice shift southward on the 06z GFS. Also somewhat encouraging to see a 1030 mb high flex in the St. Lawrence River Valley.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrdps&region=neus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2025122206&fh=48 I think...

how often we see rain in SW PA and snow in SE Delaware on the same map

do you have link to that?

Those retrograding blocks can really work in our favor and models can struggle with those. That's when you can see one run showing a 980 low tracking north of the Great Lakes and then two runs later is tracking 700 miles south lol. All in all...that trend is not bad looking. I also wonder what role that cutoff southwest of Baja would play...sometimes that can be beneficial to us and sometimes not. But it does seem to be assisting in those higher heights into the PAC NW. Still some room here but its encouraging to see at this stage

Yeah---it was hinting on that in 06z IIRC. Tomorrow night or bust.

3k totally different

High definition RGEM gon wild

Not if the NAM is right for the daytime part of it

The latest European for Friday.....a wee bit different from prior model runs.

GFS and Euro have temps in the upper 20's on Friday..that's a 30 degree difference

yeah, would be nice to get Friday and then maybe some better potential next week all I know is that if you get that strong and west based enough, dumb shit will happen. almost always does when you have a block that big. it isn't there yet, as the main vort tracks through the lakes, but it wouldn't take a lot to change that if you weaken that Pacific trough or retro it more

Yeah I mean at least there is a pretty simple path to understanding the sudden change. Fingers crossed we’ll be talking about how the GFS proved everyone wrong for a foot of snow by week’s end…

At this rate, tomorrow we will be saying congratulations NC! That is a serious south trend

I’d guess the whole state cancels .. maybe not SE coast ?

GSO got down to 26 this morning, but once you’ve recently been down to 11, 26 seems mild

Not that group lol

December 30

The trends have certainly been noteworthy, you've done a damn good job and highlighting these trends (and not just with this period) over the past few weeks. It's been great to see some trends moving in our favor as we get closer to an event versus the other way around, which has plagued us the last several winters. I am very intrigued moving into and through January.

that final depiction looks perfect right now. great ridge position. 50-50 low not suppressive. southern stream off pacific? great amplitude. very good trouch position to go negative near us?