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After having a Medi-TC on both Sep 8th UKMET runs (TCG late 9/13 to early 9/14), the subsequent 5 runs’ textual output showed nothing. But the newest UKMET (12Z 9/11 run) brought it back albeit slightly delayed vs the two 9/8 runs with TCG ~18 hours later. This run gets it all of the way down to 986 mb. Wouldn’t it be amazing for the Mediterranean to have a TC stronger than the strongest so far in the Atlantic? NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 34.5N 13.5E LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 15.09.2026 84 34.1N 14.1E 1010 30 1200UTC 15.09.2026 96 35.3N 16.5E 1003 43 0000UTC 16.09.2026 108 35.8N 16.7E 998 51 1200UTC 16.09.2026 120 35.4N 15.6E 993 46 0000UTC 17.09.2026 132 35.0N 17.3E 992 41 1200UTC 17.09.2026 144 35.1N 19.7E 989 51 0000UTC 18.09.2026 156 35.0N 22.5E 986 60 1200UTC 18.09.2026 168 35.2N 26.1E 991 48 @LongBeachSurfFreak

Did it feel more humid than normal? It was. The precipitable water was above normal for the last month. On the boundary of the more humid and hotter air, there was plenty of rain

Get the blower out

Spc has all but southeastern pennsylvania under marginal risk for Sunday . https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=CTP&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off A notable axis of streamline convergence shifting gradually east across Central PA late Sat afternoon/Sat night will provide increasing llvl theta-E advection and numerous showers with several tenths of an inch of rainfall likely across at least the SE half to two thirds of the CWA by early Sunday. A few PM TSRA are possible Saturday and/or Sunday afternoons, especially over the western mtns where MU CAPE will climb above 1000 j/kg with pocket of 0-1 KM EHI in the 1-1.5 m2/s2 range. The timing of the thickening cloud cover late tonight/early Sat morning will allow for moderate radiational cooling of the ground tonight with the llvl inversion being difficult to break for the first half of Saturday across our Central and NE zones. So, Max Temps should turn out to be a few to several deg F lower than today`s A more-active (wetter) pattern is in store for Mon- Tues. But, the flat upper ridge over the southern half of the CONUS will make it difficult for deep moisture to make it into PA ahead of any shots of atmos forcing. The week could end dry as the upper ridge pumps up over the central CONUS.

funny this is, they are doing the same thing down here, but for the opposite reason.....

The cooling east of Japan and warming in the GOA is driving the neutralization of the PDO:

:vomit:

Except for the lack of rain, today was perfect early fall wx - sun, 70, light breezes.

Leaves are already falling up here because it's been so dry.

Likely because the cold El Niño events of the late 70's freaked them out.

Yea, just depends on the precise SST measurement and calculation are, but I wish they could centralize it. Regardless, neutral-negative now.

https://satellitewx.com/ocean?p=ssta&d=2026-09-09&dom=Global&v=r,-160.000,0.000,387.600 Thanks to @BlizzardWx...my new home site.

lobster and cracked crab for everyone

Historically, strong El Nino's are inclined to turn wet during the fall and they don't always telegraph the turn. If this fall indeed turns wet, late September can certainly be a turning point. NOAA may or may not signal that turn. If CPC predictions had been correct for the past 6 months, my soil would not be parched now.

Looking at this satellite pic would you ever think we were at the peak of hurricane season? Still think we need to be somewhat wary of the Gulf and southwest Atlantic before the season ends. If anything noteworthy is going to happen it will come from the CAG with a move north into the Gulf or southwest Atlantic. Could also have some home grown system in either of those places. MDR is done for this year. We'll have to see how many more days we can go without a hurricane because as of today we broke the record for latest in the season without one. Should easily be able to tack on another 7 days I think which is pretty amazing.

2001

12z GFS back to busting the drought again

79 / 55 clearing out nicely

yep that was the start of the very dry and warm 01-02 non winter

No surprise what is going on around Tallahassee right now: Plenty of torrential rain! The Southeast: One of the WORST places to be in a super el nino if you do not like major flooding and your beloved neighborhood written off. The PLUME will be residing directly over the Southeast. If you do not like flooding, get out NOW, while you still can. Head for Austin Texas. We won't have to worry about that nonsense over here. We are well west of the Nino's influences and hundreds of miles safely west of the Plume.

75 part was pretty close. But the f-ing dew points won’t drop. Gonna have 60s dews for Xmas.

My mistake. You are correct I didn't remember the front. I thought it was mostly the subsidence around Erin that gave us the clear skies. I had forgotten how dry and crisp the airmass was that day. If it was just subsidence it would have been more humid and warmer. Cold front clearly the reason for the sunny, deep blue skies. I do remember in the weeks following 9/11 it was so very dry with minimal rain to cleanse the dust and toxins out of the air and quell the smoke from ground zero.

I would get Rick Dempsey to sign a tarp for her. Might as well remind her of the good times and the last one she saw. Plus, he was awesome as that team was just fun.

You're not fooling anyone.