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Jan 15 to Feb 15 honestly looks like a decent period IMO

If anyone here is cancelling winter on December 21, they should go find a new hobby.

Looks that way, let's hope for the Norlun again.

Would be snow to sleet to Zr south of 90 verbatim

Def could clip that area. That’s where most of the uncertainty is on this. We can quibble about 1.4” vs 3.5” over the interior but I don’t see any drastic changes.

You can relax now. The 12Z Euro has no storm, which was fully expected due to the 0Z coming out of nowhere in semi-fantasyland and with hardly any EPS support. But the 12Z does look quite cold as early as the PM of 12/29 fwiw. However, its E US trough is stronger than other 12Z ops and is thus currently an outlier for the cold. Regardless, the colder trend seems to be there. So, we’ll see.

Winter might be over

Prime climo is a few weeks away.

If anyone was wondering, last nights fantasy storm is gone on today's Euro. Just another brief cooldown before warming up to start the New Year!

We could use some rain, just don't want to 30s and 40s and cloudy CAD days

How is that ice? I can accept sleet but how is it ice? Are layers below 850 down to 925 warm but sub freezing at the surface? I’ll answer. No

I guess the overall trend I am seeing at 12z is the tendency to amplify a trough over the eastern half of the United States. Some models are doing this on the 29th(Euro). Others are doing it with the next system just after New Year's(GFS and CMC). I can see the path to a warmer pattern, but it sure looks like the cold is going to be pay-me-now or pay-me-later...ie the cold is coming with the NAO block in place and it is a matter of time.

I'm not canceling winter but I'm coming to terms that it's definitely over for the next couple of weeks, at least. Losing weeks of prime climo is definitely a bummer.

The normally warmi-sh Euro at 12z rolled this for the Music City Bowl...I truly hope that is wrong, but it looks like a cold front will possible slide in the evening of the 28th. I am still waiting on my warm-up - I need a short warm-up! This morning is the first morning I haven't run with gloves in a long time...so that is a start.

For the rest of winter? On the first day of winter. Interesting

South has stuck the fork in, we’ll see how long until the other sub forums do the same.

Euros had that ice look for like 5-6 runs in a row

07-08 is what I picture when I think of a canonical Nina around here.

Tasty low level cold numbers I tossed the GFS but that’s still not crazy if we don’t get good surface cold locked in.

I like a dusting to an inch for the city with with slightly more north and west. It will be cold enough to snow but it will only stick in the city on colder surfaces.

The sky about an hour ago.

Now that dem Boyz have been eliminated, watch them win out and drop in the draft order

One other thing LC noted last night was that the MJO has no real clear signal - at least that is how I read it. He has cautioned multiple times about using it recently. He noted it was almost impossible to decipher the phase it was in. He did add that there is room for cold and snow further south after January 20th. I think he has likely nailed this. When I read his original forecast back in the fall, I was like, "Wow. That is really sound reasoning, but it conflicts with so many of the other social media seasonal forecasts." Heck, it conflicted with mine which came out during June of last summer. Veteran forecasters are savvy. And the great thing about the human brain....it doesn't tend to get caught in feedback loops. I think we have some circles of thought where opposing ideas are not allowed to be cultivated. That leads to group think. Back in the fall, Cosgrove produced a forecast where he cautioned that those waiting on winter would have to be patient. It is hard not to look at the deterministic runs at noon, and think they are not gonna be in a good place by the second week in January.

Lots of snow for me.

Snow Tuesday/early Wednesday, snow to ice to maybe rain Dec 26-27.