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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
bluewave replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I think an even bigger story than the warmth this winter will be the shift to a much warmer base state. -
Not me. I've mellowed out. When you are a teenager and once in college just getting to know the real ins and outs, and that period SUX for snow (for me the second half of the 80s), when the train finally came in 1992-93, that gives you perspective, and then after something like 95-96 and to top it off w/ one of the most wild blizzards ever in 1997 (the "freak the public out" off season events do it for me!), that made up for all the "bad times." And it just stayed epic, w/ the absolute pinnacle Jan-Feb 2015. @CoastalWxwas old enough to know how the second half of the 80s were Ask him how many times how woke up to sunny conditions and went, "WHAT HAPPENED TO MY 4-8" OF BACKLASH?!" And even though he had to wait a bit longer than me b/c Dec 11-12, 1992 was a royal shaft in Brockton for snow, it all corrected itself soon enough, and for *everyone.* Even when a gap occurs like the 4 years until this past Jan, and then two 20"+ storms in his backyard? Sorry, I don't want to hear it!
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North part of Sherman must be getting smoked
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
No one is saying that...the question is how does the interaction between the strongest El Niño in history and the most powerful antecedent cold phase in history manifest across the hemisphere this winter. -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
mitchnick replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I never would have guessed. Lol -
TheBudMan started following October 2026 general discussion
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That warning here is a little puzzling to me. Velocities haven’t looked great (though wind would be right on the leading edge) but haven’t even seen any reports of wind damage associated with it moving into western MA
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
The season. may look like 1997 in the mean, but it should be timed differently...you don't think December has a better shot at being milder and February colder than that season? You have been touting a warm December....1997 wasn't that warm. -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
bluewave replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
My early winter guess is that the temperatures will be significantly warmer than any of the current seasonal models are forecasting. The temperatures for the first half of fall have been warmer than any other super El Niño year on record. Plus this is the strongest El Niño by a significant margin. -
90.8 today. 3 straight 90+ days for me
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I changed my stance on that a bit...it's not a bad QBO analog....only rare weak spot is solar. -
It may tend to weaken, unless instability shoots up a bit out ahead of it but it’s in an area of higher MLCAPE now
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E PA/NJ/DE Autumn 2026 Obs/Discussion
JTA66 replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
Yeah, the line fizzled on approach. Was almost dark as night here about 10 minutes ago, but not so much now. -
Temps dropped almost 20 degrees to 55 now. Had a few gusty showers dropping 0.18" but nothing even close to severe.
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Please hold that together into and thru this area
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Kent/New Milford going to get the best goods
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Softball cancelled. Thundering with heavy rain
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Wiz is gonna get ripped up
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No Chase but will be outside hoping for some goods
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Whoa.. look at that bow echo in MA
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E PA/NJ/DE Autumn 2026 Obs/Discussion
Birds~69 replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
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2026-2027 Fall/Winter Mountain Thread
Maggie Valley Steve replied to BlueRidgeFolklore's topic in Southeastern States
It will be a great day for College Football Dave. That's for sure! -
For those always saying Frederick gets the storms. Not all parts of Frederick gets the storms. I have been sitting on this edge for 20 min.
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Central PA Autumn 2026
Itstrainingtime replied to canderson's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Just .09" fell here. Temp down to 65 which is much closer to what it should be. High today was 83.
