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SAL is another big factor, esp. in recent years. 2024, the SAL was dominant in the MDR. The 700 and 500 temp anomalies were impressive, and that why the heart of the season was squashed and why we did not get the fcst "2005 redux" in 2024. I recall seeing 0 C at 500 in part of the MDR in Aug-Sep 2024, and this was w/ no ridging present. It is not often you get 0 C at 500. In the core of a Cat 1 hurr or higher and under the hottest continental ridges. So to have 0 C at 500 just "there" w/ nothing atypical synoptically, you want to take about "extreme?" The SAL was so strong in 2024, it extended to the EPAC and that suppressed things big time initially, resulting in the latest first NS in the EPAC since reliable satellite records (1970). In 2025, what stood out was the African dust outbreaks. They usually peak in June and wane in July, but they went on into Sep, again knocking down MDR formation big time. 2025 was unique b/c all the major hurricanes except Melissa peaked and got intense outside the deep tropics. So what happened in just the last two seasons in the ATLC were non-trivial as to suppression of TC activity, and something that needs to researched more and included in the discussion. It is esp. important b/c of all the TC basins in the world, the ATLC is the most variable.

Far too much focus on SSTs -- column TPW (and by extension instability) and shear is what it is all about. All the anomalously high SST/OHC is meaningless if the atmosphere does not cooperate. Something that seems to elude many -- "but the ocean is SO hot!!!" TCs are more tenuous that the MSM thinks. A lot has to line up for one to form, and even more for one to get intense. SSTs are more than warm enough around the globe in much of the tropics and subtropics year-round to support strong TCs, and how many named storms form each year and how many get intense? And formation is confined to distinct parts of the year in each basin, again showing how what goes on in the atmosphere dictates things. Of all the 3 primary factors, SSTs are least important. You can get hurricanes up to Cat 2 status w/ SSTs below the 26 C threshold, and min hurricanes as low as 20 C as long as the TPW and shear are favorable. But if the wind shear is high and/or the column is dry, you get nothing to even develop in the first place, despite torch SSTs! You don't need to do research or run a model to see this, Empirical observations alone over time clearly show this. That's a sig problem these days, some are so caught up in "what the models say" they forget to look at what actually happens in the real world, currently and in the past. Empirical. real-world observations override what models say every time. Basic common sense and logic!

Pattern would really have to change to bring something up.. but I wouldn't mind a NC trip

Yah, but maybe we can get a grazing PRE like Arthur from July 2014!

"But, but, the ECMWF is now at least showing a disturbance that recurves!" @CoastalWx needs to be reminded this is a "home grown" type of hurricane season. Last 'cane to hit New England was a super El Nino based on RONI 1991-92 -- no, not the Bobby Brown song! LOL.

GFS has been persistent in showing this thing for many days now, but that mean little b/c it is the GFS and it is beyond a week. However, the recent ECMWF runs now show a distinct wave moving W S of the subtropical ridge and then recurving offshore. But @ineedsnow *only* cares about this I bet from the 00z GFS! "It's just GOTTA come up!"

Fell just short. 12.33" Unless they happen to get TRW+ today.

@ineedsnow wants this!

I used to go McDonalds. But I can not go there out of good conscience b/c of the ridiculous prices. Funny, Taco Bell and Little Caesars, there prices have not gone up much at all over the last 5 years. So I do not want to hear inflation or min wage mandates excuses.

Don't get me started on 1-in-X year events! There is a fundamental misunderstanding of what they say. The reference points/periods for climo to calculate such a stat for any given location and wx parameters are fluid/relative, to say the least. But never let such details get in the way of hype or a narrative! Event return periods that extend beyond our period of record are curved to fit our period of record based on numerous statistical assumptions. This means just one extreme event can drastically alter return rates, giving a false sense of what actually has changed. If you divide whole world into county warning areas like what is done in the U.S., then you would have about 394,000 zones. So a 1-in-a 1000 yr flood would happen many, many times a year. It is not exactly 394x as the math would suggest due to non-linear factors, but it is still a lot, relatively speaking, and this is just for one type of wx event. How many are there out there to measure/quantify? And this is just choosing CWA for spatial, you can play games w/ numbers forever, slicing and dicing down location areal coverage to a single point for any wx parameter/measurement, and create any scenario as to frequency and trends to your hearts consent! This goes back to "how to lie (or exaggerate) w/ statistics" notion. The law of large numbers and averages results in many 1-in-X year events every day all over the world. It is similar to winning the lottery, odds are astronomically against, but many ppl each year win despite these odds b/c so many ppl play, and many repeatedly, so this *guarantees* there will be winners! It is a big planet and the atmosphere has endless combinations that in are high flux all the time, and it is going to split out big/record wx events at times w/ their frequencies waxing and waning over various time cycles naturally.

Pretty telling that for Dolphin the Google model has almost zero landfalling C3s, minimal c1-2s, and a majority of landfalling TSs.

The EPAC hurricane season off to a big start too with lots more to come

Maybe you missed the part of my post where I clearly said fall and winter not July? It’s going to be hilarious when the PDO flips positive by the end of this fall along with a massive displaced Aleutian Low spinning in the NPAC

So nothing ended up happening from a "Scott Spinner" POV. However, look at the radar at 1521z 7/29 attached. The HRRR fcst radar nailed this configuration w/ the flared cells E of the low center. One could easily think this was a TS landfall in SNE! Actually the fact it slowed and stalled near the MA/NY border and then drifted E reminded me of what TS Henri in 2021 (several spinners from that!). So why no spinners? I don't know but all the ingredients were there. However, as we know, just b/c all the ingredients are there does *not* guarantee the sensible wx results one would expect (or wants to in @CoastalWx case!) occurs. And this happens a *lot* for spinner setups! How many times do the SCP and SIGTOR look great on paper, and nothing happens beyond run-of-the mill svr cells, barely mesos? These parameters only account for some of what is going on the atmosphere, so you have to use w/ caution. And the line between no tor and tor, or a bunch of meh QLCS spin-ups and honkin' long-tracked, intense tors is rather narrow. *One* thing off and it can be "ruined!" So in hindsight, I'd make the same exact fcst for potential spinners for this past event. And really how often do you get a discrete, compact sfc low that is non-tropical "make landfall" over LI and CT in the warm season? Not that often! Yes, a summer Nor'easter in a sense but things are much different this time of year, owning to much higher PWATs and CAPE available superimposed on synoptic-scale lift! And the fact the low pressures in the summer and smaller and not as strong as their cool season counterparts actually favors more rain and higher risk, b/c the things tend to move slower and the synoptic forcing does not overwhelm the mesoscale, so you can get weenie RW++ stationary boundaries like we had in ern NY this past event!

Yes, acclimation can be in a very short period. I recall one big cold period in New England in the late 00s I think, and for several night in a row, when I went out to my car to go to work, it was 0 F. Then it "warmed" to 20 F the next night, and it felt really good! My avg yearly in Woburn MA for days w/ thunder is 23. It gets up around 30 in western parts of the region. Most I know of for a single location in New England is 42 days in ASH in 1988 (15 days in July alone - MQE also had 15 days that month for an all-time record!). @weatherwiz and @ineedsnow snow would faint in ecstasy if that happened to them! @CoastalWxwould still be like MEH!

Come to papa

9 tors in WV on 7/21 confirmed now. That is the second most in a day for the state on record, behind the 10 on 4/2/2024. Now 13 tors for 2026 in WV. They had 20 in 2024 for a yearly record. WV I always thought as a gap for tors since avg per year 1991-2010 was only 2 and a lot less than all the surrounding states. But I think the advent of mobile devices cameras and static cameras everywhere by the late 2000s, along w/ the dual-pol radar upgrade in the early 2010s has change things to reveal what is really going on and this has closed the gap as to the fact that much of WV is so rural.

4-day storm total for me was 1.01". Got 0.28" yesterday (Thursday), which was a bit of a surprise for me. One heavier shower in the AM and two rounds in the late afternoon. At least the yard will be happy for a while longer with such an elongated event.