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what a winter

Latest 1” depth at the Mansfield summit stake since 1954 was 11/9/1985. I feel like we are going to beat that. This super Nino fall going to set the latest 1” snowfall at the Mansfield summit station?

@CoastalWx wants another "Wild Turkey Surprise" on Thanksgiving like what happened in 1989. A kiddie Scott went to bed that evening mad b/c the snow was going to miss SNE, and when woke up the next morning to S+ and got nearly a foot in GHG! Does he even recall this event? Big fcst bust. Looked too cold and suppressed. Models no clue. I recall the NWS took down the Winter wx advisory for the S Coast for their 06z update. Then the first obs from BDR at 10z (they were not 24 hr then) had S+ and then quickly put up a winter storm warning!

I will say, with that absolute BLASTING of the pac jet (lol DT) there must be some jet splitting there, probably a bunch of junk systems/late-bloomer ots systems. 11/10-25? Just a guess from that overall look I saw. Maybe some backside cold/snow-flurries NNE type thing. eventually something would produce there

The annual record was set in 1979, when IAD precipitation exceeded DCA precipitation by 8.10 inches. So, we are on pace to break that record in 2026, with the current IAD minus DCA difference being 8.91 inches. Interestingly just five years ago, DCA precipitation exceeded IAD precipitation by a record 9.13 inches.

Bank on it. If you look at @EasternLI’s H5 maps from 1877-78 (the extreme east based El Niño event) it’s basically a persistent -TNH from Nov-March.

Agree. IMO this ends up a strong -TNH winter

I wonder if there has been another time with IAD so far up on DCA for precip.

Granted, I don’t think it’s *too* far off with the monthly H5. But a Feb -EPO in the monthly mean probably isn’t happening IMO.

We’re at the point where it *finally* initialized the next month (November) correctly as an east-based event. But once again it tries to go “super Modoki” the following months which I don’t think is accurate.

My Dec. 14th prediction would also come into play. I picked that date because it was my parent's anniversary, my dad and brother's birthday. Very scientific.

Bills have won 11 consecutive games coming off a bye. Josh Allen has never lost a game coming off a bye. Yeah we cooked for tomorrow, lol And I do not believe we beat Jacksonville on Thursday since we beat them last time (for the last 20 years straight we've only beaten them every other time...and we won last time!) We about to be 4-5 by the end of next week, man But I'm accepting that this has to be a transitional year. The problems Minter inherited are too deep to solve in Year 1--especially since they are of a cultural nature and require some rostee changes. Give he and staff an off-season and I think things will turn around next year.

Ryan Hall Y'all winter forecast...

CanSips NOV Update DEC JAN FEB

I don't see any precip trends different from the decadal trends so far this year. Since 2017 we have been very wet July/Aug and dry Sept/Oct. Extended models are all showing above average precip from ENSO, but I just don't know that that's started yet.

The October 2026 summary in New York City:

WB latest EPS weeklies. Mid November to mid December looks wet. Now we need to see if we can get cold enough air at some point during this period.

October 2026 at DCA tied for the 20th warmest October in DC history with an average temperature of 62.6 degrees -- 1.8 above the 1991-2020 normal. January-October 2026 at DCA was about the 19th warmest first ten months in DC history with an average temperature of 62.6 degrees. October 2026 precipitation at DCA totaled 2.08 inches, 1.58 below the 1991-2020 October normal of 3.66 inches. For the first ten months of 2026, DCA precipitation totaled 27.90 inches, 7.60 below the 1991-2020 normal of 35.50 and the 22nd dryest in DC history. However, IAD precipitation totaled 36.81 inches, equaling the 1991-2020 normal.

He won’t be back for quite some time . Same with @RUNNAWAYICEBERG

No he saw his shadow. 6 more weeks of summer.

It's like when you turn the heat to your house up to 90 degrees. It's never been at 90 before, it's uncharted territory!

November. Time to start looking for the first flakes. Everything in my garden is still alive, tomatoes still healthy lol. +QBO/East-based Nino runs warm for November. Usually that's because of a cold Stratosphere, but it looks like this Nov we have a warming, followed by the long range models strengthening SPV for December. Imo, the pattern associated with -PDO is currently displacing ENSO/N. Pacific pattern eastward - models have -150dm in the PNW In Nov which is not typical of El Nino. Here is today's CPC forecast for November Analog-wise, Nov departures for the CONUS have 57% correlation to DJFM (filtering out global warming). Without filtering global warming it's about 66%.