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I sort of retired from my engineering job two years ago and decided to pick up weather in my free time last year. I'm an EE major and applied mathematics minor so I can hang with with the math but I was disappointed looking through the Atmospheric mechanics text book I bought since it was mostly fluid dynamics calculus, which I guess makes sense since the atmosphere is a fluid, duh, but all those dels and curls bummed me out. I just wanted to skip forward to the part about how noreasters form. As luck would have it they dragged me back in and now I'm doing engineering consulting for all these data center powerplants getting built so I have no time for weather. Maybe during my second attempt at retirement... Rest assured, I'm doing my part to help bring your electric bills back down.

Models fully account for precip evaporating or subliming during descent.

The two weeks that followed were the best 2 weeks I've ever had in any winter!!!

https://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/12/model_l.html

The one thing that annoys me about the HRRR is how the best forcing arrives with the precip (which makes sense I suppose). However, according to the soundings we have an entrenched layer of dry air (someone pointed this out earlier) which would sublimate before it could be saturated. HRRR shows this taking a couple hours which would be painful (though another actually smart met will need to chime in on how much that matters in relation to its molded snowfall output or if its factored into it). The good news to my eyes is once the column does saturate its game on with a saturated DGZ and good lift aligned with it! I know @psuhoffman mentioned that strong winds in the DGZ can break apart crystals but from my (admittedly chatgpt) understanding this soundings seems fine in that regard.

Just Keep a creeping northp plzzz.!

And the two weeks that followed.

Almost WSW criteria in S. central VA. You are reeling this one in for us. Hats off sir!

I would really hate to see this cold pattern pattern with mjo phase 7-8-1 without a nice snowstorm!! Seems like a waste

Let me know. You can meet me at my place and we can car pool

Hrrr support from the Srefs

There's no legit high to the NE. Its all progressive bullshit. This December pattern is not going to produce. I dont care what the MJO shows. We need another pattern reset.

Let’s pull off a 1/30/10

0z HRRR looking a little RAPish, about 40 SE with the snow wrt 18z: I'll wait until 12z tomorrow to get my hopes up for the inevitable flop though.

Is this the right map?

More north! Baby steps!!

We always get rug pull 50 mile shifts the last 24 hours so why not a reverse rug pull?

0z HRRR will make friends with lots of us. 2-3x as much snow DC and points north than 18z. And I'm 99% sure this is the right run lol

GFS Model – Total Snowfall (10:1 SLR) for Southeast U.S. | Tropical Tidbits

Yep. I have had enough 34° rain to last a lifetime

Soon to be- congrats DC

More of the same. Constant disappointment. I know it’s early in the season but man we need a win in the foothills at some point.

HRRR is about 25-50 miles more north with slightly heavier precip.

Im gonna say more than 5 inches.. We will see a nice size snowstorm in mid to late December once we get blocking going again once the MJO goes into 8.

Haha, no it's a very local trail. I don't have much time usually due to raising my daughter without her mom, but the days she has swimming and a friends parents car pool I jump at the chance to get out there. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk