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Perhaps the 82-83, 97-98, and 15-16 outcomes were the result chance and a small population set, rather than us saying goodbye to winter... Lots of different players on the field, keep the faith!

.89" for the week here. .71" for DEN.

Wow, hope everything is OK. Storms rolled in here in Asheville with some strong winds but not as bad as what hit you.

About 0.15”. So more than yesterday lol. But still got split in a few directions.

A few spots could see an evening shower or thundershower. Most of the region will remain dry. Tomorrow and Wednesday should mainly fair and warm. Highs will likely reach the middle 80s to perhaps upper 80s across the region. Another cold front could bring some showers or thundershowers to the region Wednesday night or Thursday. The frontal passage will be followed by a reinforcing shot of cooler air. Thursday and Friday could see highs in the lower 80s. The weekend could feature cool and perhaps unsettled weather. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.7°C for the week centered around August 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.32°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -18.45 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.064 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 50% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.1° (near normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.9° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Still can't get to 99 but oh so close. High of 98.4 today. Currently just before 7 pm it is 95/82 for a feels like of 118. Brutal out there.

Bingo

Had a narrow but intense line move through here earlier. Dropped 0.96" in about 45 minutes. High was only 78 but still felt like Florida. I've had 8 of my in-laws from Ecuador visiting for the last 2 weeks and they're like "does it always rain this much" and I'm like nope...you guys just got lucky.

I feel like I know how to analyze the NAM (both 3km and 12km). The RRFS just seems unstable run to run. Version 2.0 is better and it’s on platforms like Weatherfront for example.

I actually thought the 3k did a good job most of the time…especially if the synoptics were being handled relatively well by most models. I had little to no use for the 12k. But at least we had a lot of experience with the nam and when to use it as guidance. I’m not a fan of trying to learn a new model with a (pun intended) rotten core.

FCC had an inch: https://mesonet.umd.edu/station?stid=MDMSNT-45. I think that’s probably in line with what I received.

Big time severe storm just hit. Lots of damaging wind gusts exceeding 50 mph. Lot of large limbs down all around the house and I heard and felt trees coming down above the house.

Lots of normies talking about the perfect weather today

The usual lol

I love the vintage Accord. A survivor.

But it still better than the NAM! Geez, the 3km NAM same res as the RRFS and look at what the 3 km NAM does. Talk about overdoing convection and QPF in general. That's the "garbage model." I avoid it! RRFS can actually show mesocyclones and local low pressure from intense supercells.

Not in the seasonal mean, no.

That ridge is going to lift towards Greenland on the heels of the latter January/eary February reflection event.

December and most of January, sure....that is a DJF mean. I don't necessarily agree for February.

The weekly crop moisture index seems to pass the eye test for 0-3m depth soil moisture. The drought monitor doesn’t seem applicable for someone like me growing plants and fruit trees

Oh the number of times I was stuck in those leantos during rainy camping trips growing up. Big Deer and Stillwater have both been flooded by our family camping trips. One time when I was in my early 20's, we were at Big Deer and expected a rainy Saturday. I woke up Saturday morning, looked out and saw beautiful blue skies. I was psyched! Then I realized it was merely the large blue tarp we had strung up from leanto over the picnic table. The rain soon started and didn't end until we started packing up Sunday morning.

Big time storms fixing to roll through.

Im in Gastonia and the heat index is 108. How do yall survive this down east?

Mother Nature has declared a do-over for last spring's "dry heat" and low precip. Now, we have humid heat and frog stranglers like we are living in Central Florida. Jeff, I lived in Central Florida for two years. You gotta make this stop! LOL. I am all for rain, but the downpours are getting crazy!

His initial prognosis was 2-5 years to live. He lived for almost 20 years with this awful disease. He played like a Raven. What a fighter. RIP.