All Activity

I wouldn't be too surprised if LWX calls DCA/IAD/BWI as 89/89/87 as the highs of the day appear to have just missed 90/90/88. Still daily records, though.

Will there be a second wind to this torch or will it be more of a muted warmup after the cold snap?

It’s not like we have a perfect kicker…oh.

We are so back

The 12Z UKMET, Euro, Euro AIFS, and Icon all have a storm of some sort have a storm off the E coast next week. I’m noting this because there’s a strong correlation between very strong El Niños and having one significant to historic U.S. E coast storm in Oct as ALL 9 of the other very strong El Niño Octobers had one: -1877: Hatteras had 1002 mb on 10/27 along with significant rainfall and strong NE winds caused by gradient between a sub 1000 mb low offshore and a 1022 mb high over Quebec. Norfolk got 2.71” of rain. The low was TS #7 then to the S moving OTS: -1888: TS #7 went up the coast 10/11-12: -1957: a strong nor’easter (995 mb) went up the coast 10/5-6 giving Hatteras 4.62” of rain: https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1957/19571006.pdf -1965: TS # 9 formed 10/16 NW Bahamas and hit NE FL 10/19 producing 8.3” on rain at CHS: -1972: very strong nor’easter went up coast NC-NE 10/5-8 with strong winds and heavy rains (>4” NYC, nearly 4” Hatteras): https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1972/19721002-19721008.pdf -1982: strong winds/heavy rain (3.64” of rain Hatteras) from nor’easter 10/23-26 due to strong gradient between 1004 mb low Hatteras and 1030 mb high NE US. I experienced this in DC and still clearly recall the unusual combo of continuous rain, wind, and cold: https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1982/19821018-19821024.pdf https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1982/19821025-19821031.pdf -1991: “Perfect Storm” 10/30-11/1 H #8 (Boston 2.69” of rain): 1997: nor’easter 10/18-20 (Hatteras 1.4” of rain): https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1997/19971013-19971019.pdf https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1997/19971020-19971026.pdf 2015: strong front pushed by 1045 mb SE Canadian high gets hung up along E coast with ~stationary upper low SE US and MH Joaquin ~stationary Bahamas interacting in a way few have ever seen resulting in >17”/historic flooding CHS Oct 1-4: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_stnplot_20151002.html —————— So, all 9 very strong El Niño had one impactful to historic US E coast storm in Oct! Are the 12Z UKMET, Euro, Euro-AIFS, and Icon sniffing out something real for 2026’s turn? Based on the history noted above, I wouldn’t at this point discount at least the possibility of something notable happening near the E coast next week.

It definitely is more influential than the PDO. The PDO is a cumulative reflection of the base ENSO state over the years, it is an extratropical oceanic index that has little to no effect on the long wave pattern.

Well to be fair…we have nonsense talk for mid October already. So I kind of get where he’s coming from. It’s starting earlier and earlier.

Its not hitting 80 during the winter..70 yea but 80? I dont care how strong el nino is.

Excited to set the latest 80 on record on Xmas day!

Save the NAM!

The disturbance on the models that develop down south in the long range might have a chance.

thanks captain obvious

latest 90 on record.

Oh yeah, crazy differences for ~4 days out. Bodes well for winter tracking!

Some people here need to consider moving to the deep south...

Hit 90 down in DC today

Negative PDO is the opposite of what they have. It's not a cooler north pacific. Where they have a Low pressure is really a High pressure.

Yeah the cold and freezes literally vanished . Started noticing it Monday . Just a slight BN day now

I remember you said it would hit 12C back when it was 9c I think. Good call!

I don't know why you've taken on the stance that everything is normal with the El Nino and H. Hemisphere pattern. It clearly is not. We have not seen more than 4 consecutive N. Pacific low days since the El Nino began in April. Oct-Nov.. -0.38 max Dec.. -0.32 max To say that too much on the correlations and then post QBO correlation is ridiculous! I know the QBO is not anything different from random. It's not a practical surface level indicator perhaps beyond the AO effects.

I went to ALCS games in Baltimore on weekday afternoons in 1979 and 1983. I miss afternoon postseason baseball.

Currently it has one of the weirdest look's I've seen a hurricane take on.

Same here, super frustrating especially given the ongoing drought. Looks like the NAM won. Wraparound is a hoax, just like it always is. Maybe we should hope for a bone-dry forecast and then celebrate when we get a flood or a blizzard.