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Amazing how you can see the flow stacking up against the mountains.

The general consensus is there but I'm excited to see what 12z shows. Ideally for everyone the south push stops and we get a stronger low

I don't either-They must really still expect this to come north. Maybe a WWA

Feb 6- second week of Feb look good lot of clippers

Yea but we’ve also been shutout for years

3 run qpf trend on the RGEM

I still think we need to give it at least through today to make sure that is the direction this moves, but it's admittedly looking more like that will be the case.

I’ve had my eye on the feb 4-5 system. Again the trof is pos tilted, but it might have enough moisture upfront moving w to e

My first thought is that it could be the extra dropsonde data points (i.e. improves resolution over the Pacific when these are added to 0z) but these are only done in the PM for the past few days, so it doesn't explain the 12z shift too. It seems like something like this, but not as strong, happened with medium/ long range storm signals in the past and I thought it might have been due to diurnal convection cycles modulating how global models dealt with large-scale features (like any SE ridge or in this case PNA ridge). That's not much, but all I can think of for now regarding the 6/18z and 0/12z differences. Hurricane hunters are planning a Gulf or Atlantic flight today in addition to a couple of Pacific ones, so we'll see what if anything, that does for 18z - 0z model this evening.

06 EPS another step our way!

We have been coming into 12k NAM range and the 6z out to 84 (its cutoff) was a complete fish storm for this area.

Cold, but looks pretty dry for the next 10

They definitely seem to be getting better in general. They were good with the Dec snowstorms we had.

Temperatures were all around last night. Got up at 2:00am P break, -7 degrees Got up this morning and 3 degrees and a coating of snow. Blizz thanks for your hard work. This winter is kicking your ass Just looked temp dropped to -1°

EPS is a huge uptick. Extrapolating it would be 7-10” with ratios across the mountains. Let’s get the short range models to hone in on this.

2-4” in RIC. Cutting it close down in SEVA. Looks great for the mountains

I think 3-7 is a great call at this point imo … It’s going to be all about where the dry slot develops & pushes through… Again, I would rather see this storm go off the mid coast of NC then explode closer to the NC/VA border… We be more in the screw zone here in the Ric that happened .

Good luck all down there. While I am disappointed... I hope you all get decent snows

Sitting at -12.1⁰ here in my little valley, deck boards were popping in the middle of the night....

Anyone have the latest RGEM .

I'm just surprised the Euro still has warming criteria here. I guess id expect 12z to cave further unless the other models come back.

I dont pay attention to the 6z and 18z models so much so will see at noon today.

06z EPS vs 00z EPS

EPS mean shifted a little to the west/SW like the OP but still a great run for most. The EPS is 10:1 ratios. I took my total qpf mean and times it by 15 at least up this way and got a mean of around 9". Just 1 way to do it