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  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    We ended up getting a western PV lobe to phase in, which ruined that storm...I remember DT gave up on winter after that .
  3. GramaxRefugee
    October total rainfall 3.85". Highest temp 86. Lowest 37.
  4. powderfreak
    This time of year seems to max out radiational cooling with the low surface moisture. Dry leaf litter under bare trees, absolutely zero evapotranspiration because everything is dormant. Frequent high pressure and low sun angle. This evening locally is classic. Edge of Stowe Country Club is 39F while just up West Hill is 46F. Stowe Hollow has a 52F vs 40F over a half a mile.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    He is one of those AI jockeys like SnowBirdBob and all of those fools.
  6. SnowenOutThere
    I'm not entirely sure, but it just gave me similar vibes to the 2023 "Christmas snowstorm" where yes there was a trough in the east, but if the axis of the trough is offshore than that means you get nothing but cold. Additionally, notice the depth of that trough and the NAO/AO domain. It's all wrong to get a major snowstorm as the whole upper 500mb pattern is displaced hundreds of miles east of where it would need to be. You also generally don't want such a deep trough as it means the pattern will likely destroy itself after that one shot at snow due to atmospheric transport of warm air to the poles by such an intense system. If you're interested in learning a bit more here's my current Climatology research project. Climatology Proposal AMWX.docx
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Thanks for the correction....what was it for Dec- March. so I can check my numbers?
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    To be fair, those are all warm ENSO events offered far less resistance to be the development of HLB.
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    October is 45-60 days. November is 35-45 days, depending when in the month it happens.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree, here.
  11. Chris78
    The Commanders are like the way @Jidescibes model watching needing a trend. 1 step forward then 3 steps back.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    That may very well happen, but I would think that is what guidance would be showing at this point, regardless.....first of all, those runs default towards ENSO in the longer term, secondly, they are usually adjust to stratospheric phenomena had a pretty lethargic pace. This is why I spent 5-6 months telling people that that big +TNH pattern was going to develop late last January, despite guidance looking to protract that mid month mild period at times.....slow to adjust to the reflection event that I knew was coming in July.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    45+ days for November.
  14. Paleocene
    I'm not sure why I'm watching this game. The eagles look like a jv squad
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, it was tougher sledding down there, no pun intended....but we saw well over a foot just prior to xmas up here. I agree with most of what you say, but I just think there will be a bit more of a window this season than you do. We are probably pretty close on mean temp departure for the season, though.
  16. jaxjagman
    The SH breaking down you probably should expect a big ridge into Mongolia tho it seems to be just brief,still tho it shouldnt be that warm as being portrayed as some people are thinking into Nov
  17. yotaman
    New month, continue drought. Been 15 days since last rainfall. Beautiful fall days continue though. High 72, low 51
  18. yotaman
    End of month stats: Highest temp - 93 Lowest temp - 41 Highest dew point - 78 Lowest Dew point - 41 Rainfall - 3.29"
  19. Chris78
    Oops. Yea I did but might as well be snl. There so bad it's comical
  20. Damage In Tolland
    I’ve said it before but it’s far easier to drop below freezing here in Mayorch than Octorcher . Both are uncommon , but one is still more likely than the other
  21. powderfreak
    You know your climate, plus above normal heights… the mixed layer stays mild for a long time in this regime.
  22. powderfreak
    Damn, ha. Those mins are hilarious.
  23. Damage In Tolland
    Well apparently my Davis is broken and has issues and it’s been below freezing here .. so I’m told by a few posters
  24. snowfan
    So far this is an embarrassing game for SNF.
  25. GaWx
    Thanks and, indeed, that’s what we all are still talking about. I understand why you say it isn’t good for most, but is there a chance this would give Cape Cod a nice snowstorm?
  26. dendrite
    It was 24° this morning so no.
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