All Activity

6Z EURO AI: maybe around the 16th or 22nd we see some rain.

50 at my place. Late September looks above average. We all knew we would pay for this eventually right?

Low of 56 this morning

PSU accurately called 22-23 DOA in October of that year.

Crazy, I got to 54 degrees in Queens, only 3 degrees warmer than you

Just wanted to say, I am in the process of moving from downtown Brattleboro to Northampton (basically live in Northampton now). I always enjoyed up there seeing your OBS and stuff, the only other member who posted from that fair town. I lived there for 15 years (wow), from Boston, etc., now back in Mass., 40 miles down the road. I will still continue to go back and forth, so many connections in Bratt after living there so long, grew up going to Mount Snow, worked there a while back, Dad lived in West Marlboro and really like that town. It's sort of like a mini Northampton. I never post much but have been here since beginning of 2010, when it formed, was on, I think it was called EasternMassWx or similar, posting/reading from when I lived in Providence, Rhode Island ten years (2000 - 2010)...moved to Bratt in 2010. Man I feel old now...haha, not really. So...cheers!

6z euro and 12z 3k NAM backed way off rain for tomorrow except for the tidewater and coast

Forecasting a cold winter in the E US has at least short term value to the forecaster in that it sells clicks and likes and also is what even some pros are biased toward. That being said, I don’t know anything about met. Travis Roberts’ record and possible biases. Does anyone here have any info about that? Has he forecasted warm winters before? Whether or not he has would say a lot.

49.6° at my place. Wish I had time to sit outside and soak it in. Maybe soon we can time one of these fronts up for a weekend.

Dry as a bone for a while .

Going from the 2nd highest number of hours above a 70° dewpoint in July to the most hours below 60° in August made all the difference.

I don't understand the value in using a single season as an analog. Wouldn't the entire earth have to be exactly the same for the season to play out in the same way? Why don't these ppl just use an average?

50.8. New spot on this hill doesn’t radiate as well as the old house which was in a lower lying area.

Canaan hit 22.6 at some point early this morning.

46° for the low

38 last night. About to set up my new weather station and put my current one at the lowest point on the property. I’m sure it was a few degrees colder.

NWS official forecast is still mostly dry for tomorrow. Low pressure off the coast will provide more clouds and possibly a shower near and east of I-95 on Wednesday.

friend's camp in Eustis was 30F.

Assuming that the SSTs will drive the pattern, he would need big changes from what is forecast for Winter 2025-26 to be similar to that for Winter 2013-14. The core of the warm anomalies would need to shift much farther east. 2013-14 Current Forecast (ECMWF): Current Forecast (CFSv2):

34 this morning, close but the garden still lives (though growth/ripening has slowed considerably).

HIE…Whitefield

White Plains recorded a low of 53° this morning, its second consecutive day with a low of 53° or below. 2025 has now seen two stretches of at least two consecutive lows of 53° or below through September 9th (August 30-31 and September 8-9). The last time that happened was in 2017 (September 1-2 and September 8-9). Since August 1, White Plains has had 20 days with lows of 59° or below. That is the most since 1994 and tied with 1962 and 1987 for the fourth most. Most Days with Lows < 60° (August 1-September 9): 1. 22, 1964 and 1994 3. 21, 1957 4. 20, 1962, 1987, 2025 7. 19, 1982 8. 18, 1986 9. 17, 1972, 1988, 1997

Whos the 31?

Chris, What are your thoughts about what met. Travis Roberts said about the E US winter potential for cold/trough similar to Jan of 2014 in the video (linked by Anthony above) due to the very warm water in the NE Pacific that’s similar to 2014? My concern is that 2014 didn’t also have that very warm water going back to Japan thus meaning it isn’t an apples to apples comparison. I thought that the 2014 warm water was heavily concentrated in the NE Pacific and thus was the primary cause for that Jan 2014 cold E US. But in contrast now, the warm water isn’t just concentrated in the NE Pacific. Related to this, the August 2013 PDO wasn’t nearly as negative with it at -1.56 vs August 2025’s -3.23: