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I’m not going to post clowns for the GFS because of how useless it’s been of late, but 12Z is a bit colder. Verbatim it’s a major mess of a storm north of I-85. 3-5” of snow for many, followed by a 1/4-1/2” of ice (Friday into Saturday).

I like that run

CMC looks decent

Fair....and I actually should probably have said "some"...

Forgot about that storm, that was one of the craziest cases I remember where the setup was almost perfect and it rained. Many of us at that point felt we were headed for another 97-98

I mean for the metro areas ya but euro been showing snow up here for like the last 3 days so if all a sudden inside 48hrs it goes away it’s kinda hard to believe

True, but if this storm was a couple degrees colder it’s quite possible we’d be looking at least a slop storm to an actual snowstorm.

12z GFS is close to something better on the 6th but I’d still take an easy 0.5-1”

Still quite a difference in precip. amounts. GFS advertising an inch of liquid north of 70 and Euro about .60. There are some things to really like with this system if you north and west of the beltways with some elevation. Maybe a good old fashioned 5-7 that ends in drizzle. Euro 850's and thicknesses and even surface temps look really good. GFS only a bit warmer. I would think any moderate to heavy precip is all snow.

On the board with my first Trace of the season after starting with some light sleet this morning. Nasty out there before the precip slackened. 34 and light rain just blows…

I’ll probably chalk this one up to it being early December, personally

Wantage NJ 32.7 maybe 0.2 on some of the grass - dirt but cant officially measure as melt son contact. still snowing at 1118A

Close up on the 10 th. Wonder, and hoping, we get a better + PNA spike as we get closer to this time period.

12z RGEM is looking good as well.

@wxmvpete and I are working the WPC Winter desks this morning, so you'll see what we drum up here by the afternoon. Interesting forecast for sure, but fun to be able to have the hands in the first potential event of the season for parts of the sub

Not everyone will.

Thinking December 5/6 decent comparison.

Crush job here on the ICON GFS and CMC

This is a marginal event; if it fails everyone will blame the phenomenon that shall not be named....

Gfs looks good too

BWI: 16.2 DCA: 10.1 IAD: 19.7 RIC: 8.7 ——————— SBY: 7.3

Got 10”. Had some good ratios at the end of the event to get us to double digits. Sun is out now, making for a beautiful morning

12z GFS brings Warning level snow to most of the Susquehanna Valley on Tuesday.

Courtesy of Rays winter storm archive. Again no accumulation for the coast.

983 is a pretty legit coastal