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And not just the overall categorical risk. The 5% tor and wind has been pulled east as well.

Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 923 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026 .A slow-moving front will interact with a very humid airmass in place to result in multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. MDZ501-502-509-510-WVZ503-504-182130- /O.NEW.KLWX.FA.A.0009.260718T1600Z-260719T0600Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany-Western Garrett-Eastern Garrett-Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral- 923 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH 2 AM EDT LATE TONIGHT... * WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...Allegany and Garrett Counties in Maryland, and Mineral County in West Virginia. * WHEN...From noon today through 2 AM EDT late tonight. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Low-water crossings may be flooded. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - High humidity coupled with a slow-moving front is expected to result in multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Localized rainfall rates of up to 2 inches per hour, with isolated totals of 3 to 6 inches are possible. - Please visit www.weather.gov/safety/flood for flood safety and preparedness information. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

Tuesday worries me more than today. That said the other week when a bomb went off in camp hill I didn’t think conditions were favorable for a microburst.

That's from 7am lol

North side of a stationary front can mean

Narrative artwork for this morning: AQI: 196 (parts of the NYC area are above 200).

Hope so...2.89" since June 1. Tuesday may be somewhat better at this range.

Not at home but heard my Capital Weather lightning detected near my location go off this morning at 4:15. Looked at radar to see my house getting hit with a very nice robust cell followed by another one. Picked up .61” from that early morning round. A

Some showers and storms moving through already

There was lots of snow left in the mountains when I went to Alaska last month! The last flakes of the season at Detroit were May 2nd. So if we can squeeze out early flakes in October, there will only be 3 calendar months in 2026 I don't see snow of some kind.

SPC moved the severe threat a bit further east on update: Update: Previous

good luck

I'm about 3 miles into my hike here in Crownsville. When i first started about 80 minutes ago I could smell it and it looked nasty. Now the sun is breaking out and the smoke is thinning out.

Fine by me. The 4th of July storms did enough damage in my area

We are getting a straight up downpour at the moment, so the first shot has been made.

Thanks! We have season passes and always walk through Zoo America to say hi to the animals

probably downpours are the biggest threat with this....

Hearing thunder already from a cell just off to my west.

I personally think it won't be anything too significant. Lots of cloud cover in place. Destabilizing activity moving in now. Most enhanced or higher risks tend to disappoint for whatever reason

Air quality back to 182 here. Hopefully it ends soon because i want to take my kid out.

Low of 68. Not entirely sure what to expect today as there’s quite a difference with the models in terms of timing/location/intensity. Just hoping no one suffers any damage. At least we get the smoke out of here this afternoon.

The rain that fell last week around DC wasn’t enough to keep up with climo. DCA now -7.44” ytd.