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I remember 2 fairly recent 80 plus Halloweens in the last 15 years

12z gfs selling an s tier 70s filled weekend, we're got it dialed in nice

Incredible model battle here. I have a feeling I know which one is going to win

Normal highs this week are like what 62-63?

The airmass is beginning to moderate across the region mostly everone on the map will end up in the 60's for highs

Fortunately that storm stays way offshore. Nice run of wx ahead Tick tock, cold/snow seaaon on the clock and looks wasted through EOM

Look how much the forecasted mean GEFS NAO has risen from its Oct 13th forecast to today’s forecast! Oct 13th: peaking at only +1.0 on Oct 15th and then plunging to -1/remaining down at -0.9 on Oct 27th: Today’s prog (Oct 19th): peaked not til today way up at +1.73 and already after a dip to -0.8 back up to ~0 on Oct 27th: I’m assuming this drastic change is related to the actual strong storm offshore the E US that wasn’t even forecasted back on Oct 13th thus leading to lower actual SLP in Iceland today than progged 6 days ago. Daily NAO: https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.nao.gefs.z500.120days.csv

Hope we can get Halloween to be like the one that was shown in that epic 1980's Steven Spielberg movie "E.T. the Extraterrestrial". Would be nice to have mid 70's and sun for Halloween with no jackets or coats.

Of course I buy veggies at the grocery store too. But like many people I also grow a vegetable garden. You have a problem with people growing vegetable gardens? All I did was comment about being happy that we didn't get a frost yet. I didn't say anything about clouds. What a strange comment from you.

Low this morning was 26.4°F, A bit chilly in the woods around 6 am.

All I know is I want to be in one of the first one of these. “The National Weather Service will implement the use of “Particularly Dangerous Situation” wording in select Blizzard Warnings and Ice Storm Warnings this season. This language will help forecasters alert partners and the public about high-confidence blizzards or ice storms of historic severity. These rare events typically pose exceptional threats by posing imminent danger to life and unprecedented disruptions to emergency services.”

Yeah that’s super scary. I always think back to the one NBC reporter who died in the first week of the Iraq war from a blood clot because he was sitting in a humvee for like 3 days straight

It’s going to strengthen more and a classic +IOD forcing signature is showing up on the OLR charts, so it’s coupling. Question is how high does it peak next month?

After a decent rise in last week’s release from +0.59 to +0.88, the latest weekly IOD update had no change. But that could easily just be a short-lived pause in the general upward trend since June 1st. Based on the history of IOD usually maxing out by Nov, I’m giving it another month to see if we get a very strong IOD peak this late autumn/early winter. One can see on this chart how much stronger was the +IOD in autumn 2023! At this time then, the IOD was already peaking way up at +1.91! Even in 2019 on this date it was way up at +1.94! https://www.bom.gov.au/clim_data/IDCK000072/iod_1.txt?1791781094025 @snowman19

I almost think the eagles did him dirty by allowing him to fly to england when he had the bruising after the Rams game. And then went to the hospital while in england because of the bruising. Like thats bad. Flying with clots. oooof

The models may be off but the ice data does not lie. I’m more interested in the fact that one would have thought the opposite would have occurred this summer. That we would be looking at a new record sea ice low based on the amount of heating happening overall. Having such a contrast between the record heat in the tropics and a relatively cold Arctic will act to enhance storm formation this cold season. What that means practically i am not sure. I do have full confidence in an active STJ and storm track. .

@LibertyBellasked me this: “Are these similar to the naturally occurring doldrums at the horse latitudes that Columbus experienced?” ———— My answer: Good question. Quite possibly.

This is most likely an ignorant question but do we know if the seasonal models are advertising a permanent low or transient lows in that area?

Damn. Hurts out for rest of season bc those clots moved to his lungs. Hoping for the best for him.

I closely followed the DMI site’s 80+N Arctic temps showing 2026 being THE coldest on record (back to 1958) by a good margin late May-early August and posted many times about that here and in the Arctic Ice thread. There’s little doubt it was notably colder there than recent summers, especially N of Alaska, and it helped the Arctic ice. However, as@bluewave@OSUmetstudemphasized in discussions with me, they convinced me to think that comparing to DMI charts prior to 2002 per Chris (see his quote below) and possibly even to all years through 2025 per @OSUmetstud (due possibly to a cooler ECMWF bias introduced in May of 2026) MAY make the appearance of the summer of 2026 being significantly colder than all years 1958-2025 per the DMI graphs deceptive because of the DMI ECMWF data. Per Chris in Arctic Ice thread: “Even the less reliable ECWMF only starts in 2002, so an apples to apples comparison to any year earlier than 2002 can’t be made.” —————— However, I’m still very open-minded about just how cold it really was in 80N+ late May-early Aug relative to 1958-2025, especially 2002+, pending continued research of other knowledgeable people’s opinions. Look how cold June 2026 was N of 80N per actual ERA5 reanalysis: 1. only ~1/7 is in warmest 1/2 of years vs ~6/7 in coldest 1/2 2. a little >50% is in 4 coldest colors meaning coldest 11 of 87 while only ~6% is in warmest 11, which is <1/8 the size of coldest 11 3. ~25% is in coldest 3 of 8 while only ~1% is in warmest 3 of 87, which is a mere 1/25 of the size of coldest 3 This 80N+ close-up came from this image below: only the relatively small area (~1/7 of 80N+) of light green, beige, yellow, orange, and reds is warmer than the median while >50% (4 coldest colors or coldest 11 of 87) is 87%+ percentile cold! So, does this cold of an ERA5 reanalysis (in image above) actually support this cold of a DMI 80N+ June ‘26 (in image below)? Food for thought at least. Keep in mind that it says this at the DMI site, itself: “The 'plus 80 North mean temperature' graphs can be used for comparing one year to an other.”

The most perfect week of weather. Hopefully not I'd love a repeat of 1965-66 31 here both mornings The clear blue skies for days on end is why I love October. Dont need any more rain this month. Hopefully not. And predicting 5 inches of rain in a winter month is a very bold call. It could just as easily be suppressed and we get nice clear skies like we are getting now. I would like a repeat of 1965-66. Suppressed pattern is also possible. Just look at this week. And most importantly clear skies all week! How strong was that 1749 hurricane and how much snow did we get in the 1940 storm? 31 here both mornings. It's staying offshore. Onshore flow is fine as long as there are no clouds. But unlike summer zero clouds with this pattern in October. Hence warming temps. Even with 1551 ft of elevation I was only 1.5 degrees colder. And MPO stayed at 32. No clouds Tony! Yes this whole week will be like this. Ugh you need to buy your veggies at the grocery store like normal people do. I'm ecstatic there won't be any clouds for the next 10 days! MPO only got down to 32 and Scranton to 30. It was 31 here both mornings. Interesting that Scranton got down to 30 the night before and 34 last night while I was 31 both nights. My sensor results were as follows: 30.9. 30.9, 31.3, 31.3 30.7, 31.3, 31.5, 32.0 Same 4 sensors in the same order both nights. The first night had a longer time below freezing it was below freezing from 12:30 am to 8:30 am that night so 8 hours. That's a hard freeze even if the low was 31. NO CLOUDS EITHER. Government will need to start issuing mandates in the future and insurance will need to stop covering those regions. Lol it's that time of year. I'm just happy there will be no clouds this entire week!