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I’m beginning the MD section tomorrow! From Harper’s Ferry.

Not always though. See 2023-4, for example, which was way too cold along with most others. I did and posted an analysis here of all of them back to 2017-8. I’ll recheck it asap.

Oct 2024 had positive EPO: Oct 2023 was negative: Oct 2022 was neutral... Oct 2021 was positive. Oct 2020 looks neutral maybe slightly negative. Oct 2019 had a slightly negative EPO and 2019-20 was very positive. So looking back at the last few years, there isn't a single year where this correlation has actually existed. Maybe 2017-18 but it's weak. I think we can look at these correlations, but even in what you showed the significance seems to be pretty minor. I'm not sure this is a causal relationship at all, and if it is, it's a very, very minor factor.

Nam and euro also showing around .25" or so now

Euro clearly has a warm Seasonal bias. It has one even medium range albeit to a lesser degree.

Highs TEB: 91 EWR: 87 New Brnswck: 87 LGA: 86 BLM: 85 TTN: 84 NYC: 84 PHL: 83 ISP: 83 ACY: 81 JFK: 79

warmer climate "folks" lol

Put a quarter inch on the bingo board within the next 7 days in NNJ and you might luck out. Bonus bucks if someone gets to a half. Everything else is clown maps until there is stronger evidence of a significant pattern developing.

A quick note of caution about weekend storminess: The 12z ECMWF is currently an outlier. That a system will likely form out in the Atlantic is a reasonable idea. That it will bring a heavy rainfall to the New York City area is currently speculative. Most ensemble members have < 1" rainfall. There are also more dry ensemble members than 2" or above members, so a dry weekend is also a better possibility than the big rainfall amount shown on the 12z ECMWF. In sum, until there is a stronger and consistent signal, the potential for some rainfall seems appropriate. The idea of a significant nor'easter, especially as shown on the ECMWF, requires a lot more evidence.

Baby steps...

It’s not even the most up to date euro run

Historic warmth

I'll give him some credit. That may have been the first time I've ever seen him post an actual model . Usually it's pulled right out of his behind.

You always say to sell the op runs and ride the ensembles. so why is the euro op run going to be right?

50 to start, then hit 85. Felt fine in the shade though watching football (baseball briefly before the yanks decided to throw bp) on the deck. Had an evening visitor as well.

High of 86F today. I'd wager Stowe has a lot of them, ha. They are everywhere at all the $1-3 million spots... but once you get to the $10-$20+ million properties they are all indoor pools. Here's the Kellogg's house (cereal family). I can't even imagine that level of wealth.

I love watching JD. Great player

Euro 12Z trying to do something Sandy-like next weekend

SVT, but no definitely not. I know 2 people total I think that have them.

Deep summer look and vibe there . Can’t be too many inground pools in the entire state of VT . Much less Central VT

This may be the most boring tropical season in decades

We pool in VT in OCT..

My comment was about the entire runs, not just Wednesday. They’ll be a stein zone Wednesday, but hoping for a half inch here.

For October, yes, a scorcher. Even here in the coal region hills of PA, I topped out at 86.

Topped out at 86 today.