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Cuz it’s an absolute dog shit antecedent airmass? RGEM overall has a lot to like. Better H5, closer tuck to the coastal, and a really nice IVT that gets most everyone in the metro area and east. Sorry CHO area…

We typically think of the Miller Bs that ride up into the OV then transfer to Delmarva. Those often screw us. So when someone says Miller B, those are the memories we hang on to. However, even January, 1996 was a miller B. More of a hybrid Miller B.

Jan 15 was colder and stalled for a bit, iirc. This could be a Jan 15 lite, or I guess Jan 22 lite. I wasn't here at the time, but I think Sandwich had close to 30".

37/27 and sky brightening through the overcast.

Yes, but the temperature criterion was eliminated.

All the models are making a clear trend in the right direction but we need this thing to not occlude that far south or this will be a run in the mill moderate to maybe significant snowstorm. That's probably the favored outcome now but it's so close, painfully close, to something much bigger.

Let's not forget with temps expected to be in the 30s this will be more of a heavy/wet snow with ratios of 10:1 or slightly less.

Pouring snow right now, best of the winter probably. Picked up an inch in the last few minutes

Goofy GooFuS time! LFG!!

That storm had me grinding enamel off of my teeth.

I'm in the same boat as you, but I'm not OK with a miss LOL.

GFS up next, guess we will see if it decides to flinch or double down...

From here: https://sites.gsl.noaa.gov/desi/

I'd say we bust low on temps as we have all week but we know that's not likely

Yeah, I was kinda thinking that..no artic antecedent airmas in place. Could be some damage with wetter snow.

yeah, im fine with a couple inches or miss - Im just starting to see green spots on the lawn. If it happens, hopefully theres a warm up afterwards, dont want snow sitting for a month again.

Why are the Icon and rgem soooo warm! It’s Feb with a sub 990 low off the Delmarva and moderate precip. And it’s close to 40! WTF

This system has more latitude to come farther north than the 2/6/2010 blizzard had, though there's a limit to how far north it will come. It will depend on the timing and location of phasing and the timing when the trough goes neutral/negative. I suspect 50 miles is within the realm of possibility, as underscored by spreads between the 25th/75th percentile outcomes. In 2010, there was an overwhelming block that precluded the storm's gaining latitude (AO: -5.205; NAO: -0.985) and locked strong confluence into place. In any case, the area of heaviest snows will probably be focused somewhere from the northern Delmarva across central/southern New Jersey barring some large changes. But it is plausible that warning-level snows could extend into northwest New Jersey/adjacent northeast Pennsylvania, NYC's northern/western suburbs, and the southern half of Connecticut.

I'm not saying it can't occur but he's been saying this for days and should know by now. They can't be posted until late Saturday at the earliest if it is going to occur.

ICON is Jan 2022.

Delta-Ts aren't particularly big.....esp this time of the year after the type of winter we've had....water temps are chilly. Might be some as the winds turn more northerly and if we can get 850s down to roughly -10C or so....

Maybe some? Temps aren’t super cold and actually hover near 32 there for a time.

BTW. You'll be happy to know the models suck everywhere. It's pouring in the U.P. and a few days ago this looked like an all snowstorm. The rain should turn to snow this afternoon.

that fact that everything has moved towards it this morning is a good sign

Yea slight shift north thanks lol