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He gone.

Also pressure rose on the last pass. The secondary eyewall does seem to be strengthening based on FL winds as well

Haven't seen him post in awhile, where is the Sultan ? @Ginx snewx would be all over this action, with a full moon goon to boot. Hope he's ok.

Polo has some structural changes occurring. Note the two images below. Over the past four hours, the tops are warming around the immediate eye, while a larger / thicker band is expanding out away from the immediate core. The MW scan from earlier today did show some intense banding. Though it would be impressive how quickly that has come to evolve into a concentric feature. However, look at your post. That does appear to be evolving fast on recon's radar. Granted, Polo's eye has been small, and at this intensity, structural changes may evolve rapidly:

Phase together…superstorm ‘26.

Good luck with 20 light snow events in a Nino this strong. This is a boom or bust winter, and a matter of how many booms we could get if it does boom.

I would highly advise not getting into what the HRRR is doing from a tropical standpoint

Beggars can't be choosers and we need the rain badly, but hoping no high winds and little rain for our vaca to Rockwood tomorrow-sun. Boat still in at marina (should be ok), but any high winds makes me nervous. Regarding fuel prices, we're pretty damn lucky with our south facing housing. Burn ~500g/yr propane and 1cd of wood. Paid $300 for the cord. Funny side story of a friend of ours that sells wood. He was getting $400/cd at the time (250 was the norm) and calling it "organic". There's a sucker born every day.

Where is the center of circulation at this time?

HRRR really showing that system near Cuba getting pulled up.. i wonder what influence it will have.. by hr48 its east of Florida

If 40-60 + mph gusts on fully leaved trees are meh to you. Good luck to you

Oh right I remember october 2022 was delightfully cool and crisp. No ugly 80s rearing their heads.

Depends on your location, but for most of the area, it's either 2020 or 2022. (However, both years had very warm starts to November.)

Oh ok. Plenty of trees/woodlands here in MI! The color show will be great. Corn fields are definitely an important aspect of the autumn harvest however.

.97 and counting. It looks like there's an area if steady rain in northern VA starting to develop.

Yes. Hardywood is a really good brewery.

Although that el nino collapsed very early in the second year and led into the very strong la nina of 1988-89. I suspect if we got a 2nd year el nino in 2027-28, something similar could happen and we could get a strong la nina in 2028-29 instead.

I forgot to show the back half of 1997

There is no solution yet…just possible ones.

Looks like we'll see a return to 80s and higher dew points first few days of October. This happens nearly every year now. @bluewavewhat was the last time we had an october without at least one 80 F reading?

That will change if the GFS moves towards the Euro.

Yeah a very boring and ugly solution

They don't get much stronger.