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Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Mount Joy Snowman replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Love it. Man, this rain is much more robust than anything modeled or forecast for up this way. We actually had a downpour a little while ago here in Harrisburg and still raining very steadily. -
I think there's a laziness component to this issue, like other things, some people don't want to/can't perform relatively simple tasks like adjusting clocks. I think we have the best of both worlds the way it is now - extra daylight in summer evenings and enough daylight on winter mornings. If we change it, fine, but it wouldn't be on my Top 10 list of priorities for this country.
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Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
ChescoWx replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Some more needed rain is crossing the area this morning. We are now up to over 85% of our normal rainfall for the year to date here in East Nantmeal with some spots now approaching average precipitation levels for the year. Today will be our last in a stretch of mainly cloudy and wet days. A beautiful end to the work week and upcoming weekend is on the way. Plenty of sun on the way with temperatures running a few degrees below normal as we close out May and move into June. -
E PA/NJ/DE Spring 2026 Obs/Discussion
ChescoWx replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
Some more needed rain is crossing the area this morning. We are now up to over 85% of our normal rainfall for the year to date here in East Nantmeal with some spots now approaching average precipitation levels for the year. Today will be our last in a stretch of mainly cloudy and wet days. A beautiful end to the work week and upcoming weekend is on the way. Plenty of sun on the way with temperatures running a few degrees below normal as we close out May and move into June. -
Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
WmsptWx replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
This "rain that is going to stay to our south" just won't go away today... -
That's the highest elevation summit cam I'm aware of in Southern Vermont. This storm is about a week later. I'm not sure what produced this snow in 2025 upslope/storm nearby.
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adjust the time zones so that we all get noon sunrises thx
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It's like walking in soup out there right now.
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No Makes zero sense to be dark at 7-730 in summer
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https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=0258&yr=2026 Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0258 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 920 AM EDT Wed May 27 2026 Areas affected...Maryland, District of Columbia Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 271319Z - 271519Z Summary...Isolated flash flood potential will exist as a cluster of storms over western Maryland moves through the region this morning. Discussion...A persistent cluster of thunderstorms was noted via radar mosaic imagery near Frederick. These cells have shown modest signs of intensification in the last few minutes. They are being supported by weak mid-level waves moving through zonal flow over northern VA and near 70F dewpoints that were fostering 1.75-2 inch PW values and ~1000 J/kg MUCAPE. Despite current rain rates of 0.5-0.75 inch/hr, moisture values increase with downstream extent toward the Chesapeake Bay. Though appreciable steering flow was supporting fairly quick movement of individual cells (around 35-40 knots), increasing downstream moisture profiles and urban ground surfaces/lower FFGs nearer to I-95 (0.75 in/hr) may support isolated instances of flash flooding this morning. This potential should be brief (perhaps extending through 15Z/11a). More upstream convection is possible later today and will be monitored for any flash flood potential beyond 15Z. Cook ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI... ATTN...RFC...RHA...NWC... LAT...LON 39727661 39527578 38907572 38667657 39187757 39657737
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It seems like as the curve of GW continues to rise, we get these freak cold excursions occurring later and later. I wonder if we'll get a late April thru early June 82-91 freak early summer some year, followed by a single afternoon of snow chances on Stratton Mountain Resort - Summit 3875' | 2025-05-22 07:37:20 PM ....on actual June 21st
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Part of the reason neither solution works-it's what we are used to for the last 60 years.
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Bingo Going to permanent standard time would be terrible causing a massive cultural shift Im fine where it is..solves both issues..its not a big deal to change clocks
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Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Itstrainingtime replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
No, this is the stuff my dreams are made of. I love all things numbers. I went to my first MLB game back in 1971 at the Vet. I can tell you the paid attendance for that game to the exact number. I've had it memorized for 55 years. That's just how I'm wired. I had .05" of rain early this morning. It looks like we'll get wet again soon but not to the extent that I'll experience here at work and farther south. -
Snow at Stratton summit last May 22nd. This is the latest I've seen snow this far south. Wonder if it happens again this weekend.
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Nice 'cane on the GFS late next week
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That cold pop over the weekend is weird. That's like enclosing a -3 or deeper SD cold anomaly inside the size of a standard hurricane's πr² And moving fast ... in and out in a single afternoon. The other thing that's weird is that seldom do we observe a surface low develop over N Ontario and dive along a 170 deg azimuth to the NH Seacoast like that. It's ultimately not a big deal - yeah yeah it may cat paw at midriff terrain and non-stick snow on some summits for a coffee break, but that' hardly noteworthy. It's an under the radar highly unusual event if it goes down the way the guidance sets at this time. I still wonder if we aren't going to see a short term normalization of some of these aspects tho. We'll see.
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The Gulf continues to have a low to moderate possibility for TCG next week per model consensus, including EPS/GEFS. This possibility has also been hinted at by the last few Euro Weekly runs for precip next week: Yesterday’s EW for 6/1-7 precip:
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Summer 2026 Med/Long Range Discussion
CheeselandSkies replied to Brian D's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
God, I hope not. I barely knew what an air quality advisory was until that year. Then we had them in effect for something like 3 weeks straight. - Today
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Even with the rainfall over the past week RDU is only at 1.54” for the month. With rain chances decreased through the rest of the week, looks like yet another month here with less than 1/2 the normal rainfall for the month
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Quick half-inch of rain here with a rumble or two of thunder.
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Nice surprise this morning over here. Have picked up .30” so far.
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Records: Highs: EWR: 97 (1965) NYC: 96 (1880) record early season heatwave continued on LGA: 92 (1965) JFK: 86 (1985) Lows: EWR: 43 (1967) NYC: 41 (1961) LGA: 41 (1961) JFK: 42 (1961) Historical: 1771: In Virginia, a wall of water came roaring down the James River Valley following ten to twelve days of intense rain. As water swept through Richmond, buildings, boats, animals, and vegetation were lost. About one hundred fifty people were killed as the River reached a flood stage of forty-five feet above normal. A monument to the flood was inscribed by Ryland Randolph, of Curles, in 1771-72: " ... all the great rivers of this country were swept by inundations never before experienced which changed the face of nature and left traces of violence that will remain for ages." 1826: A tremendous hail storm struck the eastern shore of Maryland during the evening damaging wheat and vegetable crops from Hillsborough in Caroline County to Easton in Talbot County. One person was killed. Between the Severn and Patapsco Rivers, hail the size of eggs fell. Across the bay in Calvert County, a man was killed by hail. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1896 - A massive tornado struck Saint Louis, MO, killing 306 persons and causing thirteen million dollars damage. The tornado path was short, but cut across a densely populated area. It touched down six miles west of Eads Bridge in Saint Louis and widened to a mile as it crossed into East Saint Louis. The tornado was the most destructive of record in the U.S. up until that time. It pierced a five-eighths inch thick iron sheet with a two by four inch pine plank. A brilliant display of lightning accompanied the storm. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1909: Bakersfield, CA reached 104°; their hottest temperature for May which featured 12 days with triple digit temperatures, the most ever for that location. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1914: Boston, MA recorded its warmest ever low temperature of 74 °F for May. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events) 1973: A large F4 tornado cut a 135-mile path across central Alabama. Hardest hit was the town of Brent where five people perished and 90% of the town was demolished. Seven people died along the path of the twister. Cancelled checks from Greensboro, AL were found at Gadsden, AL, over 100 miles away. Another killer tornado struck Centerpoint on the northeast side of Birmingham, killing one person. One person was killed and 35 people were injured when an F3 tornado stormed across Jones County, Mississippi. Another 3 people were injured when an F2 tornado swept across Clarke County. A second F2 tornado also moved across Scott County that evening. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1987 - Severe thunderstorms in West Texas produced baseball size hail at Crane, hail up to three and a half inches in diameter at Post, and grapefruit size hail south of Midland. Five days of flooding commenced in Oklahoma. Thunderstorms produced 7 to 9 inches of rain in central Oklahoma. Oklahoma City reported 4.33 inches of rain in six hours. Up to six inches of rain caused flooding in north central Texas. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Sunny and warm weather prevailed across much of the nation to kick off the Memorial Day weekend. Afternoon thunderstorms in southern Florida caused the mercury at Miami to dip to a record low reading of 69 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Unseasonably hot weather prevailed in the southeastern U.S. Ten cities reported record high temperatures for the date as readings soared into the 90s. Lakeland, FL, reported a record high of 99 degrees, and Biloxi, MS, reported a temperature of 90 degrees along with a relative humidity of 75 percent. (The National Weather Summary) 1990 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from north central Texas to the Central Gulf Coast Region. Severe thunderstorms spawned four tornadoes, and there were eighty-one reports of large hail or damaging winds. Late afternoon thunderstorms over southeast Louisiana produced high winds which injured twenty-seven persons at an outdoor music concert in Baton Rouge, and high winds which gusted to 78 mph at the Lake Ponchartrain Causeway. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1991: From this date through the 28th, severe thunderstorms produced wind gusts of over 80 mph with numerous reports of over 60 mph. However, the real threat with these storms was the hail. Over 1,000 nesting birds were killed by falling hail at La Creek Refuge in Bennett County. Softball size hail was reported just north of Artesian in Sanborn County, and near Arlington in Kingsbury County. The hail completely destroyed a grain bin near Arlington. Many areas had golf ball size hail or larger. Many homes had windows knocked out and roofs damaged. The storms produced millions of dollars in damage. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1992: Late record snow in CHEYENNE, WY measured 4.3 inches. 1995: A violent tornado moved from near Carroll to near Fonda, Iowa. Carroll County was also clipped by another violent tornado which moved from near Coon Rapids to near Churdan, Iowa. This tornado picked up a car and tossed it more than a quarter-mile into a field. One student's homework papers were found some 55 miles away in the town of Gilmore City. The Iowa State Patrol closed off a four mile section of the interstate to allow the half-mile wide tornado to pass. Greene, Adair, Carroll, Guthrie, Sac and Union counties were declared disaster areas. Some damage estimates included $2 million dollars in Greene County, $1.2 million in Carrol and Union Counties, $828,000 in Adair County and $642,000 in Sac County. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1997: An F5 tornado killed 27 people in Jarrell, Texas. Although tornado warnings were issued 30 minutes in advance and local sirens were sounded, there were few places to go for safety. Most homes were on slabs, with no basements. Houses were swept clean off their foundations, with little debris left behind. Total damage was $20 million. The same thunderstorm complex produced a wind gust to 122 mph at Kelly Air Force Base in San Antonio. 2001: This day brought one of the most destructive and widespread windstorms to much of Oklahoma and north Texas in recent memory. These storms left one person dead, 4 injured, 160,000 people without power and over $350 million dollars in damage in Oklahoma alone. Several non-tornadic wind reports in excess of 100 mph were recorded, and it took nearly a week to restore power to all of the affected areas
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This is some seriously heavy rain. .65" in less than 10 minutes!
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2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I love how you mock those on Social Media who dare to suggest that the ONI may not top 2.5, and then quote a dude suggesting that his incorrect interpretation of the RONI forecast could trigger "dystopian global climate change impacts over the next 1.5 years". 'Cmon, Adam...you're better than that.
