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Mid-Long Range Discussion 2026
WinstonSalemArlington replied to BooneWX's topic in Southeastern States
Frozen Palm Sunday -
"desperate" is more like it ...but I know what meant. It's really funny - all these complex solutions when the simple answer is, stop creating greenhouse gas at a faster rate than the background geological processes of this world can compensate. It's really that simple. Carbon sequestration is probably the best solution I've ever heard/read about. However, ...that doesn't do any good if the sequestration only matches the production at the other side. The sequestering tech would have to somehow gulp in that mass of the Earth's atmosphere, every year. One Earth Atmosphere/yr process rate. Otherwise, even won't cut it. Because what 2023 showed us - most likely - that the Earth's system is actually not caught up with the d(fluxes) of the last century's-worth of Industrial farts. I read a study that the increase in C02 since 1900 exceeds any increase spanning 430 million years of geological history and reconstruction/analysis, using everything from deep sediment coring to carbon dating. That's what it means - most likely - to taut a system... The 2023 temperature burst, strikes me as some of that tension being release. Anyway, seeding? These are like Road Runner/'ACME' solutions. Unless the compendium of the greater science brain knows every possible quantum consequence of effecting a system, ...not to mention the unpredictable realm beyond the synergistic emergence horizon..., anything that is done at a planetary scale is probably going to result in the greatest Darwin award in history.
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Yeah it's mostly tradition for us and we had to cancel by 1/1/26 and we thought "oh it will get better" LOL it didn't. I skiied in a sweatshirt the last day there it was that warm. But the hotel said about 25% of their bookings did cancel...a truly horrific year for the businesses out there that depend on robust tourism.
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34 / 21 clouds with some breaks of sun. About 5-10 degrees warmer than what should wind up as the coldest day - yesterday of the next week or much longer. 50s and low 60s Fri - Sat and pending on sun breaking out, Sunday could push mid - upper 60s or more in the warmest spots. back and forth the next 7 - 10 days hovering near to slightly above normal for the period through 3/26. Beyond there looks to nudge warmer as we close the month.
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2026-2027 El Nino
roardog replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
March 2023 had a very strong MJO is phases 7 and 8. This year it's also in phases 7 and 8, just much weaker. I wonder if that means anything. -
do you remember the snow event before the big storm? I had no idea that was even a thing, i just assumed (wrongly) that there was even an accumulating event before Oct 29-30th. Only far northern Connecticut in the hills picked up accumulating snow. Norfolk 2SW 2.5" Oct 27th, 2011
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Need sun and warmth. ‘Cause everything else kinda sucks these days.
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I updated several storms in the 97-00 period, i've been going back and forth on whether to include E. Granby for Windsor Locks ob. I decided to just label it with asterisk for that period. About half the storms in the Historic Snowstorms section have been updated and have new L. Northeast maps. https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/historic-storms
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We hope and pray. Euro close to a good hit too.
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Geoengineering is probably a bad idea but I think if the world hits 3.0°C+ (God forbid), it might become the less bad option. Unless future AI can invent a vast carbon capture system that scales on a planetary level.
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You should’ve just skied east. Vermont instead of Colorado. I’d say if you book a big ski trip months in advance then it might help to get a refundable option just in case. I’ve postponed or canceled a few trips before. I know you usually hit Breckenridge or Vail in early Feb.
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Landfall IMG_5610-ezgif.com-gif-to-mov-converter.mov
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If there was zero predictive skill prior to the 2023 entire planetary systemic bounce in temperature by a whole degree C spanning a single month in spring - just 1 example of not really understanding the planetary system, and a whopper - how is it that humanity knows what will result if they start tinkering with seeding? I mean I realize you're likely in part being glib for humor's sake ..but I've heard this elsewhere. Some scientist might have proffered that in jest in some conference ...could have even been sarcastic. Who knows. But then the comment gets extracted and repurposed, out of context, and all the cartoon watchers - which let's be honest ... 92.34% of all people and the civility they create - are running with it.
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I updated one of our favorite storms of this sub-forum, and one of mine as well. Got into the meat of it in the CT band that rotated and pivoted overhead with a final of 14.4". Only 24hrs before hand we holding out hopes that the NAM & RPM were right. But last minute positive trends turned this into a major storm for 95 and a historic storm for the NY/NJ metro area. https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/jan-23-2016
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I haven’t posted much this month because there hasn’t been much to post about except warmth and snowmelt. After a good winter, it’s been a very disappointing March.
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A nice unexpected unadvertised spring stretch coming up Friday through Sunday
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16 yesterday morning will probably be the last teens for this spring but freezes will probably extend into early May.
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Seems like it's mostly the operational GFS? The Euro and CMC ( though the latter only out to 10 days) appear to be seeded by anti CC moles in the modeling division of their foreign sources. heh but the operational GFS is trying to lift the ambient polar boundary somewhat N. It's not obvious like you said. "sighs". But it's coherent enough. Shit, we're after the Equinox in a coffee break. Eventually, the Euro/CMC are going to lose to the fact the June is still coming. In other words, seasonality gives a nod to the operational GFS.
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Charts just flying around the chicken coop..
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7am snowdepth down to 3” Today is likely the last day of 1”+ snowcover at MSP for now. There have been 89 days of 1”+ snowcover this season. Average is 100
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Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Mount Joy Snowman replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Low of 32 but I was lower prior to midnight. I think 30 was the true overnight low. Shaping up to be a beautiful weekend. -
Could see you hips and lips shoveling a path to the chickens to this song.
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Marquette had a very solid 18" pack a week ago before getting that dump, there are massive piles there for sure. Cool videos too of highway crews working on opening up the country roads.
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Shoot me. Just enough to be a PITA. I’m all set with the wintry truffle butter.
