All Activity

Sunny, dry, and early color continues.

Highest we saw this summer at my house was 81. I imagine we won’t see 75 again before next Spring up here on Tenn border but I’ve been wrong before.

don't buy that 23 at all, lol. some of these COOP sites have terrible siting and should be taken with a grain of salt

Models seem to have a sneaky .25 to .5" tomorrow particularly for the coast

This. I can't state this enough. Maybe you can argue there's a small feedback, but any larger scale shift due to MJO etc will just overwhelm the warm or cool pool.

Thanks for the detailed thoughts Tip... I think the "if that persist" comment cannot be understated. Over the years I've seen massive changes for the northeast Pacific sst profile moving from early fall into early / mid winter. It's rarely static. Also we occasionally see some folks thinking the sst configuration (in this case the warm pool in the northeast Pacific) drives the pattern, when as you stated, it is an artifact of larger atmospheric features/patterns. I do think you are probably correct about an early onset compared to some recent winters. Of course, intensity and staying power very uncertain. Hints of this occurring should show up in early October, if it's going to happen?

Woo!

keep me posted

.

Did he? I think his position(which I agree with) is the pattern in Fall(esp early) is not a reliable predictor of the upcoming predominant winter pattern. Unless one wants to simply go with climate models depicting a particular ENSO state/strength and look at historical outcomes. Last year would not have worked out based on that as it was a weak Nina which has always completely sucked in the greater DC area for snow.

I had a really bad feeling going into both 2019-20 and 2022-23 but things don’t look as hopeless right now. The JFM ONI was actually enso neutral those years and strongly -pdo enso neutral winters have been the WORST subset for us lately. Ninos have been slightly better mostly because they’ve been colder. Enso neutral have been warmer but still dry, at least when what little cold was around. That said we need the PDO to improve somewhat. It can be negative but not -3 to -4 that’s nuts. If winter ends up enso neutral AND the pdo is below -2 we provably get another 2020, 2023 dead ratter. But those two things aren’t written in stone…YET.

SAL is currently a problem in the MDR and Caribbean right now. This looks more like July than September. https://www.wyff4.com/article/saharan-dust-suppresses-tropical-development-during-peak-season/66012941

I don’t know if today is AN or BN, nor do I care; it’s gorgeous out

Probably this will be the final result ... but I will check later data to be certain. <<< Probable Final Results of 2025 Seasonal Max Contest >>> Actual values ___________________ 99 __ 97 __ 99 __ 99 FORECASTER _________________ DCA _IAD _BWI _RIC ___ errors ____ TOTAL (rank) __ error points baked in WxUSAF (4) ____________________ 99 __ 97 _ 100 __ 99 ___0 0 1 0 ___ 1 (rank 1) ____ 0 nw baltimore wx (3) _____________98 __ 98 __ 99 __ 99 ___ 1 1 0 0 ___ 2 (rank 2) ____ 1 RickinBaltimore (10) _____________99 __ 98 __ 98 __ 99 ___ 0 1 1 0 ___ 2 (rank 3) ____ 1 NorthArlington101 (6) ____________99 __ 99 __ 99 __ 99 ___ 0 2 0 0 ___2 (rank 4) ____0 toolsheds (12) ___________________99 __ 97 __ 99 __ 101 ___ 0 0 0 2 ___2 (rank 5) ____0 Its A Breeze (11) _________________ 98 __ 98 __ 98 __ 99 ___ 1 1 1 0 ___ 3 (rank 6) ____ 2 Prince Frederick Wx (15) ________ 98 __ 97 __ 98 __ 98 ___ 1 0 1 1 ___ 3 (rank 7) ____ 3 Jenkins Jinkies (9) ______________ 99 __ 99 __ 99 _ 100 ___ 0 2 0 1 ___ 3 (rank 8)____0 Weather53 (21) __________________ 98 __ 99 _ 100 __ 99 ___1 2 1 0 ___ 4 (rank 9) ____ 1 ___ consensus _________________ 99 __ 99 _ 100 _ 100 __ 0 2 1 1 ___ 4 (rank 9) ____ 0 Rhino16 (5) ______________________ 99 __ 99 __ 99 _ 101 ___ 0 2 0 2 ___ 4 (rank 10)____0 MillvilleWx (7) ___________________ 99 __ 99 _ 100 _ 102 ___ 0 2 1 3 ___ 6 (rank 11)____ 0 George BM (2) _________________ 100 __ 99 _ 101 __ 101 ___ 1 2 2 2 ___ 7 (rank 12) ____0 wxdude64 (13) _________________ 100 _ 100 _ 102 _ 100 ___ 1 3 3 1 ___ 8 (rank 13) ____ 0 biodhokie (17) __________________ 100 _ 101 _ 101 _ 100 ___ 1 4 2 1 ___ 8 (rank 14) ____ 0 tplbge (14) _____________________ 102 _ 100 _ 101 _ 101 ___ 3 3 2 2 __ 10 (rank 15) ____ 0 Roger Smith (1) _________________ 101 _ 101 _ 102 _ 100 ___ 2 4 3 1 __ 10 (rank 16) ____ 0 GramaxRefugee (18) ____________100 _ 101 _ 102 _ 101 ___ 1 4 3 2 __ 10 (rank 17) ____ 0 batmanbrad (19) _______________ 103 _ 101 _ 102 _ 100 ___ 4 4 3 1 __ 12 (rank 18) ____ 0 Miss Pixee (L-1) ________________ 104 _ 101 _ 102 _ 100 ___ 5 4 3 1 __ 13 (rank 18.5) __ 0 gopper (16) ____________________ 103 _ 102 _ 102 _ 102 ___ 4 5 3 3 __ 15 (rank 19) ____ 0 Roger Ramjet (20) _____________ 102 _ 101 _ 103 _ 103 ___ 3 4 4 4 __ 15 (rank 20)____ 0 DanTheMan (8) ________________ 101 _ 103 _ 104 _ 103 ___ 2 6 5 4 __ 17 (rank 21) ____ 0 Jebman (L-2) __________________ 106 _ 103 _ 102 _ 101 ___ 7 6 3 2 __ 18 (rank 22) ____ 0 ____________________________ Congrats (probably) to WxUSAF for a near-perfect call.

@snowman19My guess is that while the majority of the season is -PNA, we are gong to have month that is gong to be strongly +PNA....probably coinciding with +NAO mid season before any SSW. Season probably averages pretty close to neautral with a slight hedge towards negative.

I just need 2-3 more weeks for my project than I'll get back on the weather train. It would be nice to have a Halloween week Nor'easter. It's been forever since we've had a fun October storm.

Average monthly lows for July and August for CXY were 69.7 and 61.4; MDT's were 71.5 and 63. Disparity even greater thus far in the early part of September, with CXY at 55.1 and MDT at 57.9.

This would track well with Barry being the alt account of banned member CurlyHeadedBarrett, who also played a persona filled with "Incel" language, and whose last profile picture was Elliot Rodger, a mass-murderer who is idolized in the same spaces as the "Barry Stanton" persona. Not to mention the numerous other similarities/idiosyncrasies that have been brought up already.

Euro says mostly upper 80s the last 2 weeks of September. We'll see.

I mean it’s very clear how you can see the connection in the pattern progressions-the warm W PAC drives a faster Pacific jet, that pushes the ridge/trough orientation out of a favorable position in the East or knocks the western ridge down altogether, which means the pattern can’t amplify (suppression) or amplification in the wrong place (out to sea or cutter). Last winter we saw it repeat time and time again. With a better Pacific, NYC would’ve hit 50” since we did get cold intervals that could’ve supported snow. And by the East I mean south of I-90 to north of DC. SWFEs can deliver plenty of snow to I-90 and N, and suppressed crap can work for DC. Not here. SWFE can be okay here once in a blue moon-we had one decent SWFE in Feb but I would never bet on them for NYC.

I'm thinking you're correct.

To be fair, it's been pleasant almost every day for three straight weeks

Thanks, you said when I was posting a little (OBS, mostly) from Brattleboro that it was good to have someone up the road there, because no one else here was there. That sounded weird, but you get it, I am sure. This was before Primshine (?) moved there a couple years ago. I have a little more time during my move, but will get super busy again with work and everything once I get all resettled here in a few weeks. As I have said, between work, Facebook, LinkedIn, Youtube and just life in general I am kinda booked a lot of the time. I always have and will continue to read and will post more than I have been. I like to keep my social media down to a manageable level or it gets way too time consuming, I have learned over many years. For me, it's just those things, and here, really. I am just really glad to be back in my home state where I was born and raised, lived after college (all Boston/Newton), and would visit every couple years. Full circle and it is a good feeling. Now I can just chill more and travel to places I have lived and new ones when I have time. BTW, one of the many photos I have from my trip back to Boston for my birthday a few weeks ago, on my way, sort of, here. Weather: drizzle, light rain, and that city still kicks everywhere else's ass. Heh...

You mean +PNA?