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Mid 70s with the dewpoint in the high 40s and not a cloud in the sky ..... as perfect as it gets today. We'll be going back to summer on Tuesday though with highs in the mid 80s and dewpoints in the mid 60s.

That's now a fairly common outcome. The combination of site changes in Central Park (overgrowth of trees), increasing urbanization in the vicinity of the LGA/JFK sites (growing heat island, especially at LGA), and more frequent abnormally warm SSTAs off JFK have contributed. The latter two factors are more prominent during the winter months e.g., last winter was a prominent example where JFK had a warm seasonal temperature anomaly while Central Park had a cold one relative to the 1991-2020 baseline. Summer 2025 provides a strong example of the impact of Central Park's trees where Central Park could not reach 100° during the region's hottest June air mass on record.

Regarding TCs that hit Conus, the latest TCG date on record E of 50W is Sep 25 (1893).

Color has popped here.

I’m sort of hoping it does. Less pressure on ground water supplies, though I’m not sure if that would actually help all that much.

MJO forecasted to stay in the null phase...if that verifies a strong finish to the hurricane season may not materialize.

Overall, it's looking like we'll at least have a normal winter in general. Something we really haven't seen in several years. At least in Southern New England.

deep blue skies are the best!! tomorrow won't be as good with high clouds coming in early

High clouds coming in tomorrow morning so it won't be as nice as it is today. I noticed that SST have already started dropping and are in the mid to upper 60s now, even along the Jersey shore?

The funny thing is NYC and LGA bringing up the rear in temperatures. NYC seems to have the lowest temperatures no matter the wind direction lol.

"Early Corner" in New Sharon, along US Rt 2 about 1/2 mile west from the Sandy River bridge. The soil there is somewhat poorly drained, almost a forested wetland, which causes the early change. It's about a week earlier than average, probably due to drought, though the 5 mornings in the 30s last week might've helped. This morning's 30 and tomorrow's frost/freeze will push the changes along, though there's an abnormal amount of leaf drop already, in that area and all over, especially ash, birch and red maple.

Three of those years rank among the 11 hyperactive (180+ ACE) seasons, with 2 of the Top 3 overall: 1 2005 247.65 3 1893 231.0738 11 2020 180.3725

Homegrown storms will be the thing moving forward. The Atlantic basin should be closing shop soon.

I think this validates what I said-no longer east based but more basin wide and weak. Probably will be less of a factor in terms of predictability of the season this year.

Please stay warm for a while.

Gorgeous out! 70 in Dumont, nj. Not a cloud in sight.

Enso is always their main source for their Seasonals, as we all know.

I’m not sure there’s going to be much color.

could not have asked for a more beautiful day this time of year cool nice breeze dry air lots of people were out enjoying the day..

lol that’s awesome. The trees still look largely green.

We will need to keep an eye on mid to late next week. The models are coming together suggesting the possibility of a rather potent upper low swinging in from the NW and cutting off in our neck of the woods. While it is far too soon to know the details, the potential is there for flooding concerns right around the 1 year Anniversary of Helene.

I’m wondering if the generally far better tropical forecasts have now fallen victim to the winter storms micro management that just does not work

Perfect day of the year

Running out of time. Here in north Florida it has been very dry and less humid compared to September last year. Feels more like October than September. If nothing happens in the next couple of weeks it is probably time to turn the page on this season.