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So my final total for the winter so far for snow will include 3 inches back in November, about an inch and a half with a couple of light events and January with about an inch with several dusting and the Big Dog Friday night into yesterday of 10.5. Total so far with my yard = about 16 inches of snow.

Pattern looks to become much more progressive with less amplification and reverting back to more northern stream dominated Cold up in Canada is far less frigid and less widespread over western Canada than it was. Lowest temperature at this hour up in the Yukon Province is -1, most of the NWT is in the single digits above and below zero. Still cold and solid and deep snow cover up stream so we should get some benefit from that from that for a while. After next weekends cold shot the worst of the worst in terms of cold is likely over for the winter. I wouldn't bet against below normal precipitation for the first two weeks of February.

These are the 500mb and surface maps for the past two days. You can see a surface low on the map in conjunction with the shortwave (the slight bump in isobars) Ive circled in green on Friday. This frontal boundary is how our coastal storm developed. The shortwave rode up and around the 500mb low as it cut off and dove south from the upper Midwest. When these features combine and are vertically stacked the 500mb low can feed the surface low its energy and transfers down to the surface low. That was our expansion of precip back over eastern NC last night. If the 500mb low had been a little quicker to tilt, it would have made that shortwave (our surface low) ride a little closer to the coast instead of going more out to sea.

Yup. With regard to the 14-17th period there…you might as well throw a few darts at the dart board blindfolded, from 30 feet away…it might be more accurate. But you know that already.

I can absolutely see some sort of mid month relaxation similar to January before we go back to the cold. Can stop end up near to slightly BN in the means.

Tangentially related: I thought my 3 1/2-year old desktop computer (Bought in summer 2022, previous one lasted nearly 10 years and only died because the power supply burned up because I'd let the fan get completely clogged with dust) was shitting the bed. Starting about two months ago it would randomly freeze, regardless of what I was doing (even just reading a site like this forum, as the only tab in Firefox and no other programs open). It would either reboot without warning, or just abruptly go completely unresponsive to mouse and keyboard inputs and require a hard reboot. Sometimes it would go an hour or two, other times (and this was seemingly becoming more and more frequent) it would do it every five-ten minutes. I opened up the case and vacuumed out the fans (they were somewhat dusty, but far from clogged), ran the hardware diagnostics and everything came back good, installed all the BIOS and driver updates that were available. None of it made any difference and as a last resort before taking it to a repair shop, I went out and bought a $130 UPS/battery backup at Best Buy to plug it (and the monitor, and my external HDDs, etc) into. Lo and behold, we're coming up on 48 hours of up time since I did this after work on Friday, and NO ABRUPT FREEZES/REBOOTS!

And that blowing snow in the background!

All I mentioned is that I do not look at any of the models until within 48 hours of a potential storm...lol So sorry to offend you lol

This season has found ways to mute these types of things all season to date. Maybe it doesn’t this go around…but time will tell.

This will have to be very wrong if the torch is real . Eerily reminiscent of December

I remember that scenario from I think 2023 or was it 2022. I did look at the euro AI which has a couple of minor events until something potentially bigger towards the 15th or 14th maybe. Then something that looks like it wants to cut on the 16th or 17th.

Looking forward to increasing my YTD total to 7.1". 9 more of these storms and my seasonal total will equal what MYB got this morning.

We definitely don’t need this type of airmass for sure, but if it’s like 540 thickness into NNE as a low approaches then that’s not ideal either. I just hope we can get back to airmasses that are serviceable.

Hmmm, I sense a bizarre correlation!

I can already see my yard again. lol.

34.9°. This is nuts! I’m going to make a run at 40. On the bright side, leaf blowing the driveway last night worked well and the sun is doing some work.

It could. But it doesn’t always. Sometimes the NAO will link up with a SE ridge which will torch us. We’ll have to wait and see as we get closer.

Some photos of the Hudson River this morning. Note: I edited out the intrusive light posts from the Henry Hudson Parkway on the photo looking toward the George Washington Bridge.

I don't have to. That's Huntingdon. Just in NC.

ORH was -2.9F edit: ninja’d by Will

BOS was -1.9F on their January departure. But it was def an outlier compared to other parts of SNE. ORH -2.9 PVD -2.8 BDL -3.1

They were -1.9F

But what about Bering vortex paired with -nao? Wouldn’t nao help maintain highs to dam and or force redevelopment?

There are legit risks for a true mild spell mid-month. I wouldn’t be going all Torch Tiger yet about it due to the -NAO blocking throwing a wrench in there, but we shouldn’t pretend it’s just going to disappear automatically. Bering vortex is a very warm signal usually.

Hard to believe that Boston was only 0.4 degrees F below normal for January. I'm sure many suburbs around the city were much colder than that.