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27 F and nothing coming down at the moment in East Avl.

And even then its just low res

It's really hard. We've faded modeled warm noses before, but the setups were a little different and models were not as skilled. 2/25/07 was an all snow event that was supposed to flip. But that's almost 20 years now.

My guess is first flakes here in next 30 minutes. Virga overhead Alexandria right now.

Spent too much time arguing with people about this. I have 10 bucks coming if we stay under a foot.

18/0 Cloverly Md. cloudy parked at the top of the hill! Locked and loaded!

It's on the doorstep of DC right now...

Its the Icon..

First weather memory: losing power in Hurricane Floyd (started to obsession with weather). First winter memory (still got PTSD anytime heavy ZR is mentioned): 2005 Ice Storm Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

Reflectivity region-wide has definitely increased in the last 15 minutes or so. Tiny little band moving w-e into Woodbridge right now.

Reasonable solution.

Nice improvement on icon

CWG was suggesting an 11:30-ish start for Alexandria/Arlington. I think that's probably too late.

Garner town has a very slight tingle in the bushes right now

It definitely has. I'm just starting what was the results of analyzing model performance in Arkansas up to 6pm today. I'll be able to start looking at states to East soon. All the models there had about the same mean absolute error of 1.8". It's was the nam though with a root mean square deviation of almost twice that, while others were close, along with a massive dry bias, and horrible snowfall distribution correlation that stood out. Below is a metaphor Thinking about these weather models is a bit like judging a free-throw shooting contest between five different players. Even if they all missed by the same average distance, the way they missed tells the real story. Imagine each model is a basketball player trying to hit a specific spot on the rim: The "Average" Score (MAE) Every player in this contest missed their target by about 1.8 inches on average. If you just looked at that one number, you’d think they were all equally "okay" at their jobs. But once you look at the game tape, one player (the NAM) stands out for all the wrong reasons. The NAM: The "Wild Card" (RMSE & Bias) The NAM was the player who didn't just miss—it missed spectacularly. The Big Misses (RMSE): While the other players missed by 1 or 2 inches consistently, the NAM would hit the backboard or miss the rim entirely on some shots. Because RMSE penalizes big mistakes much more than small ones, the NAM's "penalty score" was twice as high as the others. The "Dry" Excuse (Bias): On top of the wild misses, the NAM had a massive dry bias. In our metaphor, this player was consistently shooting way too short. If the hoop was at 10 feet, the NAM was aimlessly throwing the ball at 8 feet. The "Broken Rhythm" (Correlation) Finally, there’s the snowfall distribution correlation. In plain English, this is rhythm. A good player might miss, but if the target moves left, they move left too. The NAM had horrible correlation. It was essentially playing a different game. When the actual storm "moved left," the NAM "moved right." It didn't just get the amounts wrong; it got the entire pattern of where the snow would fall completely backward. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KVANEWPO63 You'll notice another station about 2 miles from this one with very similar readings. Now down to 3F on mountain lake

It’s still going to start after midnight .

That's what I was thinking. I'm curious to see what the upper air data shows for the 00z model suite!!

Road white.

Unless you’re in the 5% of winter where you have to be 3000 miles away AFTER WAITING 6 YEARS to see 15” of snow. Ya. So.

Is 0z pulling the goddamn rug? Just looked at the icon.

I was warming up but now it's stopped again.

The good news- Dry powdery snow will not allow sleet to pile up on electric lines and trees.