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77 / 48 just a gorgeous day , lets see how and if any touch 80.

In the middle of both personal & business preparations, so haven’t posted much. I can say the vast majority of the public is taking the storm seriously. Should be able to post more tonight & then start OBS tomorrow when necessary. .

Beautiful fall weather the last few days. Now warming up a bit with hopefully some rain on the way.

You're wrong on pretty much all that. - China's labor costs are roughly 1/3 that of the US. And there is no such thing as "unskilled labor" any more - any thing that used to be unskilled is done by machines now. - China's environmental policies have generally been way worse than the US. They're doing things that in no way would be feasible on the US - displacing cities and filling valleys to build dams, thousands of square miles of solar panels in wetlands and lakes, transmission lines that run all over without community pushback, etc. etc. - Renewables have gotten vastly more subsidies on a per-unit-of-energy basis, which is what counts. - While wind farms *can* be built near the coast - they provide tiny amounts of energy and at huge environmental and economic costs, which is why so many projects have been canceled lately, and why you see numbers like 2.3% for the PJM region, even though it abuts the coast. The only region that's gotten any kind of bang-for-the-buck on offshore wind is places Denmark and the North Sea, because they've got the perfect geographical conditions for it there. The rest of the world not so much. - Can't speak to your house situation, since there are a host of untold factors (e.g. your location etc). But I suspect if you took at honest look at all the factors, including things maintenance and replacement costs (not just your system but the whole roof), and subsidies - you'd find it's not as cost-advantageous as you think. Also you're talking one tiny part of overall energy consumption - a house. That doesn't help things like factories, aviation, commercial transportation, etc. that use lots of fossil fuels. And it doesn't help the 95% or so of people who have living conditions that aren't amenable to rooftop solar, like non-south-facing houses, and multi-story apartments - virtually anything with a city. You've bought into all the green lobby talking points. You need to look under the hood more at the whole story.

heh... in and of itself this is rather impressive for a week from tomorrow

I stand corrected. Thank you

It's clearing out on visible

It’s battling dry air and shear and this will get worse as it approaches. Maybe tonight this tries to take off again which is likely its last chance.

Super El Niño

NHC is now predicting Rachel to stay tropical upon landfall, though in the forecast discussion they say it’s not certain. Either way it’s unusual for a EPac system to make landfall so far north.

When is this strengthening storm going to, you know, strengthen? Pressure has been stuck on 976 mb per recon for a couple hours.

After it gets to Sunday 7am position does it turn more eastward?

It’s probably a decent Cat 1 at landfall but it’ll look like a ragged mess.

SHEAR... FTL. Combined with ML dews are a death knell. Wouldn't be surprised if LF is as TS. Tracking this was way to brief.

We all know the reason we love this forum is not the analysis, the friends, or the banter - but to see blue (maybe even purple or pink!) pixels appear on your screen. This thread is dedicated to the storms that could've been, should've been, or are plain ridiculous. Today officially kicks the start to our season with a good old fashioned CFS run!

Technically according to this image, it was a H by 0Z on 10/8 in 1905 or 7PM EST on 10/7. So, that means 2026 was a little later if you go by this:

Feels like this one is going to end up as a classic north Gulf half-i-cane landfalls.

The hurricane was declared as such at 11:30pm eastern on 10/7 after a Hurricane Hunters pass. So it’s a little dicey. Of course there’s a good chance 1905 had a hurricane earlier in their season that we didn’t detect

I was on my to the gym(which is just over the line a mile or two)in chesire, and I came up to route 10, and that shot was in front of me, so I snapped a picture. Yes, we in Southington had the snow, as you can see in that picture, but Chesire it wasn’t sticking as well.

No, it’s the latest 1st H since 1851, inclusive. That’s the first year of these tracks at the NHC site.

On the east coast...

WB 12Z global precipitation totals for Sunday/ Monday.

I absolutely think we see some fun winter storms this year. It just wont be the constant white, frozen landscape of last winter.