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As some people seem to think it's not a big issue that they made incorrect claims, here's the AMO for the 2025 through September for all to see. 2025 1 0.98 2025 2 0.86 2025 3 0.75 2025 4 0.67 2025 5 0.73 2025 6 0.78 2025 7 0.87 2025 8 0.86 2025 9 0.76 What those who dismiss the dissemination of bad claims don't understand is that there is a big difference between forecasting (no one has a crystal ball) and making incorrect claims about objective verifiable data. Just because most of the social media readers might not ever seek to verify the claims and many may have no idea where the data resides, does not make such claims appropriate. If anything, because those pushing the false claims no that such claims won't be challenged, it makes such claims particularly unethical. Tragically, as anyone can play "meteorologist" on social media without any accountability, there's a lot of bad information being pushed into the public space. Yet, unless meteorologists speak out against such practices, the profession winds up being tarnished by the public perceptions created by misleading data, unfulfilled hype, etc.

GFS has been better than Euro and the hurricane models that took this well west of Jamaica. If anything they have started caving to GFS which was predicting the center reformation to the east that happened. That being said, none of this is good news for Jamaica they are squarely in the bullseye

We always get excited for great patterns in late November and early December and usually it leads to some days with highs in the mid 40s and a rainy storm or two. Much rather get cooking after December 15 or 20.

WB 18Z GEFS still has some members with big amounts through the end of next work week.

Back out of hibernation. Saw this on our Philly discord .

Got wood? Just so happens I'm running a GFS special this weekend.

Glad euro and AI are back onboard

Light shower only lasted about 10 minutes. 48.2°

Down on the southern eastern shore camping and enjoying the incredible dark sky. Can see Comet Lemmon and the Milky Way! Hope the frost stays back home lol.

60 for my high which is also seasons coolest

Gfs already caved today.

Thinnk this fall has alot of similarties to last fall as we head into Dec,some teleconnections surley dont match ATM

61 today. 47 now. beautiful last cruise on the boat. Until next year…

If this were a month and a half from now, this would be a widespread snowstorm. Heck, it might have been a month from now.

Just started raining lightly. 48.7°

I rarely comment but I noticed you two days earlier harping on the gfs for being onto the truth. Doesn’t seem the case since the gfs essentially caved

WB 18Z GFS, EURO, and AI at Day 6.

The GFS has been notably an eastern outlier for the track for days now.

No in between in this case. Either the GFS is onto something, or, NCEPs got some splainin’ to do

Well it seems like the envelope is moving east some. The GFS/Icon has just the east part getting hit. We will just have to wait and see. I also said might.

November 7

Just heard Ava give @mappy a shout out talking about being below freezing last night...I was like hey I know who "my friend _____ in Parkton" is

I still have red clover flowering.

Yeah, I realize that. I’m just looking ahead.