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Ha! Sorry. Peeked at your profile. But that sort of makes it worse. Do better, cuz this is a sh*t show.
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As I get older Jeff the more I love dad jokes and that one made my day! I needed it. Thanks man! .
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Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
canderson replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
@Eskimo Joe makes a great point about the CMC not being viable because it has the L running directly into and crushing the H -
GEFS is odd but I’m good with including weak/south members in a mental super ensemble with other guidance, especially when the general trend is more amplified. And tonight’s 0z run is probably the last time I’d care about GEFS anyway for this storm?
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Yeah it’s prob wrong, esp when diverging from other guidance like that. Ukie loves semi-exotic solutions at random times in the medium range.
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There is a way around the main LP causing a turnover to rain all the eay up the west side of Apps. An LP forming East or SE of us and intensifying. Not highly likely but a possibility.
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So what you’re saying issssss there’s still a chance [emoji1696] .
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Go figure when we await it for some confirmation on things it is late.
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I don’t know what much else we are supposed to think when that is what is presented. If that is to be wholly disregarded when presented then that is part of models overall problems
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That number brings back some serious childhood memories
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The warning shots are being fired we all know that...at first they were little pellets but now they are cannon balls. Be prepared for some gut wrenching runs coming up i think
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Hi everyone! I've been lurking and enjoying following along with your insight for 15 years now. Crazy! Time flies for sure. Is it just me or did GEFS say
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Tucker we are gonna need some of them nugs .
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1/23/26-1/25/26 Winter Storm Thread
Holston_River_Rambler replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Thankee -
ItsIcyDee started following Southeastern States
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I will report back...
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January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
mahk_webstah replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
I’m confused at how many storms are being modeled. So we have this upcoming one Sunday Monday then do we have another one Thursday and then a third one on Sunday -
My SIL texted me this morning to ask about how much they will get (along the PA/MD border). I told her a range but that everyone around here is trying to manage expectations since we have all been tricked and disappointed by snow forecasts over the last decade
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Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change
WolfStock1 replied to donsutherland1's topic in Climate Change
You sure you're reading those charts right? That's not what I'm seeing. E.g. in the 1950-1995 period it looks like the average number of record highs was about 2,000 or maybe 2,200, whereas the average number of record lows was around 2,500, before they diverged starting around 1995. Not sure how you're asserting a big ratio like that at any point the 20th century, aside from *only* a few peaks in the 1930's. The key thing seems to be the divergence after 1995, with record highs increasingly outpacing record lows. That trend doesn't go back as much as you describe though. -
Currently, snow. Things are evolving quick tho. .
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12z Euro INI is late.
