All Activity

Not necesssarily warmer temps, but a baroclinic zone with an extreme temp gradient for good forcing/instability and (more importantly) an upper flow that's not hauling ass, so that troughs have enough time to dig & close off.

Thats awful. RIP

He and has family died in a plane crash today in Statesville

Literal blowtorch for nearly the entire CONUS for rest of forseeable future. Absolute abysmal prospects for any cold or snow anywhere in country for next few weeks. Doesn’t show any signs of reversal either. Don’t buy BAM’s hype

Dang what happened?

Still crunchy slippery stuff around. Fell once and looked like an idiot twice but caught myself so total idiot adverted. If Ji didn't punt winter yet I'm still in. Oh wait, snap, it's not even winter yet. 49F, rain on the way and a constant flow of mucus/blowing nose 24/7...

RIP Greg Biffle. He cared far more about Western NC after Helene than every government agency combined.

I'm pretty sure when he says "big snow," he's specifically talking about a big dog (which the bare minimum to qualify IMO, outside the mountains and eastward-facing snow belts, would be 12"). That's just my ha'penny of a contribution to the pedantic conversation as merely an observer from halfway across the country...

RRFS has some big gusts tomorrow too

The crazy thing is since they switched all the airports at the same time, you wouldn't even notice a problem [except relative to your personal station] unless you compared to cooperative station data. If you only compare to other airports, it looks legitimate. PIT is similar to AGC in both months, and warmer than BTP and AFJ. But if you look into the data, you notice PIT/AGC went from warmest by far to middle-of-the-road. BTP and AFJ went from warmer half of the distribution to among the coldest sites.

MJO delivering but pacific won’t let us take advantage. Really wish La Niña would fade a little earlier, maybe we could break this patten quicker

This is even more egregious, and it's been like this month after month. The airport sites (WBAN stations) were uniformly the warmest until the switch and now they are not. Notice especially PIT goes from the warmest station in the entire climate district to middle of the road, dropping from about 3F warmer than the nearby Moon Township NWS office site last December to only about 0.5F warmer this December. Note that the Emsworth site had a lot of missing data in 2024, and that's the only one warmer than the two airports. That's an unexplained 2.5F variance at the first order site versus a reliable cooperative station with no change. It's been like this every single month since the change.

solidly negative pna for the foreseeable. If the mjo heads back into the COD and exits into 4,5 then the only hope will be a herculean block to develop and that may only partially save the easterners. Other than that we might end up going full blown torch. I'm going to Hawaii in Feb. Hmmmm, last time I went to Hawaii was January 2012 #Forch #Morch

CPC's most recent 8-14 pushed the warmth a bit more to the west, the normal to first 'warm' now runs thru central VA NW up to Michigan. One or two more pushes west would be appreciated!

Well, I don't have exact numbers. As far as I can find, no analysis was performed before the change. Some sort of pre-switch testing, but no systematic analyses like they had done back in the 1990s. Just very suspicious IMO. Why are all of the airport stations (with the exception of Islip-Macarthur) so much cooler this December (so far) relative to last compared to the cooperative stations? Upton NWS office used to be the coldest by far... Shirley Brookhaven AP was always significantly warmer, now they are almost the same? Westchester even colder now?

I have it by luck on my phone as I happened to started saving a few in Dec of 2021 and Jan of 2022 I think because of long range hints on the CFS (of all models, which I also saved a bunch of…so kudos to the CFS then!) starting to show very long range big colder changes in late Dec and especially Jan. Since then, I happened to saved a lot near and after the 2/16/2023 SSWE, which showed that the -NAO/-AO were initially way underdone/missed. Since then I’ve saved a bunch during the winters.

Less blocking today which is why the runs were warmer in the aggregate....which makes sense. If we see less blocking, we're gonna be pretty warm after Christmas.

I’m not Will but it was a big deviation from the blocking that models showed yesterday and last night. Wouldn’t react yet, but hope it comes back at 00z. Recall the op runs last night showing snow in NC lol.

I wasn't aware of that disparity. That's a pretty sizable change.

41.1/37.5 and raining here in the last hour or so.

Have to figure that JF was/is going in hard after him...

Virginia Tech?

Lol you guys are du....ahhh skip it