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E PA/NJ/DE Autumn 2025 Obs/Discussion
Kevin Reilly replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
Just south of Jamica. -
September 2025 OBS-Discussion centered NYC subforum
Sundog replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
If this was snow I would have died. Ten times worse than Juno here. We managed to get a foot here out of that "bust." -
I think it’s still worth plenty of caution to look too much into intensity guidance given the lack of a center. We do know there will be a favorable environment window early, followed by likely hostile conditions. But how much that impacts Imelda will depend on how structurally sound any inner core is.
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I didn’t issue the warning. NWS did.
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September 2025 OBS-Discussion centered NYC subforum
ag3 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
What a huge bust today was. Just .15” of rain here. -
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If this was snow, weenies would be lined up on the Harvey Taylor:
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Absolutely pouring in Fryeburg. Let’s get the Saco in flood for my canoe trip.
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I’ve seen this song and dance too just this past winter. It ticks slightly back in our direction to give false hope only to go even further south than before in the subsequent run.
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WTF is it with golf course clubhouses burning down? This is like 5th one in last couple years. https://www.boston25news.com/news/local/raging-blaze-destroys-clubhouse-pub-popular-new-england-golf-resort/UTFUKW22INCXVH4Q2IK5N5CEV4/?outputType=amp
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Obviously everyone in the SE are on alarm watch with what could transpire over the next several days. There are several variables with the steering currents and the strength of this possible tropical system. I'd like to see a few more days of consistency with this in the models. Obviously this will be talked and analyzed a lot but that's what we do.
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2.02" Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk
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Are you going to stop complaining? DendriteBlizzard2013
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Invest 94L—80% 2 day and 90% seven day odds of development
GaWx replied to WxWatcher007's topic in Tropical Headquarters
Per WxBell (may be different from others like TT): -Of the 18Z 30 GEFS/50 EPS members, I count ~25% that bring a lowest SLP of <1000 mb onto the E coast, but I see no lowest SLP <990 mb on the GEFS on land. -There do appear to be 7 EPS members that are hurricanes/<990 mb hitting. -
.66 today and .89 for the event here in 21057
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1.51” so far
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September 2025 OBS-Discussion centered NYC subforum
Sundog replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Ironically the northern part collapsed first lol good job HRRRRR -
Invest 94L—80% 2 day and 90% seven day odds of development
GaWx replied to WxWatcher007's topic in Tropical Headquarters
That’s what I meant when I mentioned those scenarios. It appears the best chance for a Fujiwara to do that is for Humberto to be at a higher latitude than 94L. This is based on viewing 100s of ensemble members from different runs along with operationals. -
Charlotte stations are doing the same. The setup has alarmingly bad potential.
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18Z AI ensemble does not support its global solution to stall for a few days and then move northward.
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September 2025 OBS-Discussion centered NYC subforum
Sundog replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
This is embarrassing -
What did the 12z have?
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How much did you get with this event the last couple of days?
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September 2025 OBS-Discussion centered NYC subforum
FPizz replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Added a whopping .03 so far. Maybe some more can come through later on.