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24-36 hours later and still going.

Just investigated and it is indeed crisp out there lol

From JB today: Euro MJO closest analogs 1983 and 1989 The severe cold Decembers of 1983 and 1989 both raise the spectre of a cold shot letting loose into the Texas Citrus areas, with Fla secondary concern had a major stratwarm in mid to late November, almost identical to now —————- The only problem with this is that there was no major stratwarm in mid to late Nov of 1983 or 1989 or anytime during early to mid winter for both for that matter: https://www.researchgate.net/figure/The-SSW-and-SFW-event-onset-date-year-and-type-identified-in-the-NCEP-NCAR-dataset-The_tbl1_267063738

Already down to 37 this evening

Just about every 0z model shows some snow or rain/snow mix for parts of EPA through Warren, Sussex, and Morris counties in NJ overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. It's mostly a narrow strip at the northern edge of a decaying precipitation shield, but a few models mix in some snow across a wider area. It's an overnight deal that most won't even notice and it's certainly not a sexy storm. The other problem is surface temperatures in the mid-30s. But I believe there's a chance for an inch or two of snow in a few spots above 1000ft along the northern edge of the steady light precipitation. That's more likely to occur in CPA, but if it holds together long enough, parts of NJ might be in play. The NAM looks overdone but RGEM/GFS/ECM/ICON look plausible. Note the images show 10:1 snow accumulation even though actual accumulations are unlikely in lower elevations due to surface temperatures. 0z NAM 0z RGEM

@Lava Rock all set check your PM.

Just got home for the day, was 28 degrees down at the river on car thermometer, 37.4 here at the house 1/3 mile away and 300 foot higher in elevation.

@MarkO all set. Check PM for form link.

30 here now. Maybe upper 20s?

44" seasonal snowfall measured. 38" of snow depth at the Stake. Not much settling happening out there. This snow is dense, with plenty of dense graupel and smaller flakes, mixed with wind. It has felt like dense sand... QPF-rich frozen precip.

I think a harsh reality for all of us each winter is that the weather we were pre-conditioned on throughout Dec, Jan and Feb many years ago has now shifted 2-3 states north for all of the reasons you’ve listed. I’ve lived in the foothills my whole life and we haven’t had a true NC foothills winter that I grew up on in a very long time. It resembles how I would’ve viewed a Georgia winter as a kid. Likewise, for folks in SC and Georgia, they’re really leaning on the side of infrequency. The woes go further north too. That NC foothills winter near and dear to my heart is the new reality for areas like DC and Baltimore. It’s all built into perspective and I myself struggle adjusting to that. I guess it makes all snowfall that much more special in the future.

Snow totals from the storm. https://www.qsl.net/n2sln/stormtot25122002.html

One of the early 90s great winters came close to wire to wire. Every time it warmed up it was brief with a cold front with squalls ending it. Will probably remembers the year, I want to say 93-94.

The resemblance to last year is uncanny, the torches are getting rug pulled. Remember when it was supposed approach 70 yesterday?

Imagine tomorrow night's system but with the same level of cold anomaly compared to December's or January's average.

Nam anyone ?

I saw Josh's post on Facebook. He got into the inner eyewall of Melissa with a lowest pressure of 927 mb. He has a detailed analysis of it if you wish to read it. The storm slacked just enough to claim he hit the edge of the eye.

28.6 currently

This is really hard to measure so hard to say the magnitude of the impact. It probably played some role. It was hard to really amplify ridges over the Rockies last winter. I’m sure there was a level of poor “luck” involved too in the sub-synoptic wavelengths.

I think we got 8-9” out in Suffolk. That backend really blew up and crushed us. I was driving to and from JFK and saw the rain/snow line.

The following morning:

My family couldn't believe it also. I was forecasted to get just a dusting. Ended up with 5 inches.

Yes, but wasn’t the PAC jet virtually a destructive influence for every significant winter storm chance we had? My wife almost lost it after having to clean more snow off her car after work today. Some of her coworkers live at lower elevation and haven’t seen anything this fall. I told her that’s how we know we picked the right location. WXW2 has nearly reached my abysmal 2024-25 total in less than two weeks time.

Here's my honest to Christ opinion: If Brian Hartline isn't the hire, or maybe Joe Brady from the Bills, it needs to be Terry Smith. Terry has the endorsement of many of the Letterman, which will have a say in this process after two non-Paternoites in charge of the program over the last 14 years, as he himself is a Paternoite, a Letterman, played in the League, and has children who repeated (Justin King). The players that are there currently seem to be playing hard for him, and there has been progress offensively since Smith decided it was time to throw the ball downfield. You give Smith two years and enough money to make sure he doesn't work after the job because he's a lifer and deserves it. It allows the carousel to cool down because all firing Franklin did was get a ton of dudes paid and if you don't get a bigger hire than the dude you fired, you just give Smith two years and see what happens.

Region 4. Looks basin-wide