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The problem is, it lags a cycle or so behind so it's using old data and still catching up.

I'll bet my bottom dollar that gets upgraded to a Blizzard Warning.

I don't think so, except maybe 2/6/1978. Or maybe they just got lucky then.

I’ve had some melting of the snow on my roof. Icicles starting and some ice forming on my front steps where it has dripped a bit. I also watched yesterday morning, once the sun rose, as the dusting of snow on my daughter’s car disappeared in about an hour (sublimation). it’s happening, just slowly

Just ChatGPT’d the map and it basically downgraded everything the nbm shows for this area. Pretty interesting read. Asked it what ratios are used and why it shows so high compared to many models tha show 0-1”

I agree should result in a more negative tilt since its held back/west we will see!

Funny seeing the cliff diving for those not getting 10”. I’m 61 and followed winter weather since 1976. The only 10” storms I remember in the upstate were the PD 1 1979, March 1983, and January 1988. Point being, it’s a rare thing to get 10” of snow in the SE.

Temp was tanking and then the wind picked up a bit went from 16 to 20.

Those that are skilled in pattern recognition (I am not) plus the repeating winter pattern(s) are keying-in on the period from approximately February 10th and the two weeks after as a recurrence of the first half of December. Aka that nice CO Low that hammered IA, IL and some surrounding states followed by sustained BN temp regime. This season has seriously mimicked last winter in many ways and last season I had my biggest storms on 2/8 and again 2/12-13. The 2/15-16 sytem for which I was under a WATCH for one shift, ended-up sliding SE and nailing TOR. That box has already been checked this winter with last weekend's major. I would not snooze on this upcoming period, tho p'sure the bulk stay south of mby yet again.

Speculation, but could let the southern energy round the bottom of the trough and beat the cutoff. Would help pull the low in closer

I see you ruffled some feathers with this questions and triggered an individual who's seeking attention (won't name names...). But that person's issues aside, people like what they like and hate what they hate. It is what it is I will say, warm weather states have been the fastest growing part of the US for over 4 decades with no signs of slowing down (many southern cities/metro have already or soon will surpass a lot of cold northern cities/metros in population) so there's actually a lot more people than yo think in the real world that can also do without "deep winter." Just have to remind yourself, weather forums can be a bit of an echo chamber that isn't always reflective of the majority opinion.

Not hating these hi res trends for NE IL

Gotta be broken right?

ratios are messed up on the NBM. also fuck this storm, its the meteorological equivalent of herpes.

The block is even stronger in the NE so its essentially slowing the trough. This will be interesting to watch its definitely different at 500

Those monk Parakeets do fine up here in nj in the cold.

Slightly warmer tonight so far here currently 14f dew point 1f this time last night it was 8f dew point -4. It’s all relative at this point but this is the coldest I remember going back to the later 1980s.

Yah

I might actually agree with this. I haven't really seen it oscillate at all, with regards to QPF location. Just up/down with amounts.

How about the parrots.

That dude is in northern ORH county lol.

Yeah thats a big change for 12hr… wonder how it changes downstream. Must’ve had some recon ingested.

I agree with the Atlanta and metro area, but not out towards winded. 0.3” QPF with 15:1 to 20:1 ratios. Athens will most definitely be getting hit hard with 3-6”. West of Barrow county is where QPF will be super low and around 0.1”. Athens looks to be at 0.3”-0.4” of QPF which would easily lay down 3-6”. The cutoff is west of Barrow into mid Gwinnett. .

I would take that in a heartbeat...