All Activity

NAM early on in the run has the HP slightly stronger out in the Midwest. See if it helps with temps as we go here and keeps the stones around longer.

Im fully clenched .

End of hrrr was getting violent

All of the 0Z runs will look amazing after I'm done enjoying this beast.

Mansfield Magic morning… I swear the top of the Gondola terrain gets 50% more snowfall than the snow plots a lot of the time. This is what 2” edited to 5” looks like on the snow report, ha. Could’ve said a foot up top and people would’ve believed it. But we stick with the standard plots.

I am in Norman, OK, and I will say that a lot of the models were showing sleet for me at this time frame, but we are getting snow currently. It's no guarantee that the warm nose will be less intense than modeled in the Southeast, but just a data point to consider.

Since the kids are out of earshot feel free to swear with wreckless abandon.

Well other than it looking warm HRRR smokes the area 12 inches and still more to go. Hopefully we all cash in especially our southern members.

It’s because the warm layer is at its greatest extent there and thin and it’s wobbling based on rates. Around 20z we’re in a dry slot then it sinks south during some heavier precip

48hr hrrr has the changeover line matches the euro almost perfectly.

And Elliott.

Yep this is the attitude to have. If you had offered anyone a 10” floor 3 days ago, they’d take it and run.

I'm coming around to this event. It's not a big dawg. It's not a cold powder blizzard. But it is a good old fashioned deep winter beat down. Even the best 15+ ratio storms get depressing the next day when they compact. This nasty, sleet hardened mf will be looking the same on Feb 5th that it does early Monday morning just with some extra soot and maybe a few more snowfalls on top

HRRR doesn’t get the mix line past the Lehigh Valley. Stalls it at southern Lehigh County then retreats towards the turnpike. We’ll see if the NAM follows.

They will soon. Hope everyone is ready.

Deep breathing exercises right now. Missed a lot I’m guessing. Anyone got the cliff notes for the last 6 hours?

Warning: The NAM is running. Hide the women and children.

Arctic front. Been snowing steadily here too, harder than radar indicates.

Down to 22 already

0z HRRR. Still early to use, but starting off with the 0z models.

something looked a little off on the last couple of frames on the HRRR. No mix at all, but only in the area. And that run looked really good until the rain jumped north pretty abruptly

There's really no coastal. Just one circle of isobars. Warm air advecting from the south must have been shut off, but I don't know how or why.

HRRR looks to bring a little snow to extreme north ga mountains with initial band of precip if it can make it through the dry air.

We've been ninja'ing each other all day (that's the term isn't it?) haha. Good stuff Chris.

HRRR is godawful at that range. I wouldn’t stress one bit, even south.