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Man that is a violent shortwave coming through early Monday.

Suggest you look more carefully at the data I am presenting without dismissing it out of hand.

La Nina is just HOT in my backyard during fall. It has not been as hot as some years, but it is still very warm. Nights have been cool. It is almost like living in the desert with such low humidity. Leaves here are definitely in a state of suspended animation after some cold days in August and early September. Now, that we have switched firmly back to summer...everything is paused. Leaf season will run into early winter here. There are some hints that cooler weather is coming. The CFSv2 has an outright flip at 500 while the Euro Weeklies are typically blind to it. That said, the Euro Weeklies control doesn't have the flip. Usually if a flip is about to occur, I like to see the Euro Weeklies control and CFSv2 both showing something similar. Until we see that, I look for at least 2-3 weeks more of very warm weather...maybe longer, but that is pushing the envelope as the pattern will be due for a change sometime around mid-November. Ideally, we want the pattern to flip during the last week of November or first week of December. Then, maybe we can get 4-6 weeks of a pattern which could yield winter weather. What we don't want is the pattern to flip cold in early November. If it does that, that means it may well flip back warm by mid December and hold through most of January. That is a concern and very much on the table.

The 20-21 fit Joe D’Aleo’s musing that solar minimums see a bunch of east coast hurricane hits….

Always refreshing to hear from this old reliable climate change committee! As if often the case the reliability of this and other CC groups is easily questioned due to ongoing concerns like clear politicization, flawed scientific methodologies,selective use of data, poor lack of realistic solutions and a general lack of accountability etc. For example from their 2022 report they actually suggested a significant expansion of energy crops and wood pellet use would be necessary for the UK to reach net zero. As is usually the case with this group this thinking was clearly unrealistic and poorly thought through! This move would in reality require up to 6% of the UK farmland which of course would jeopardize their food production. On behalf of our friends in the UK - thanks but no thanks!!!

I prefer to think of the AO as general blocking, the EPO as an Arctic cold index (independent on where it's going), the PNA as a modulator on where cold ends up in the CONUS, and the NAO as a big storm modifier, at least for NYC south. very difficult to get a MECS+ without a -NAO down here i've done research on preloading patterns and the -NAO really has no impact up by you. it's all forced by the Pacific, as you know (see Jan 2022, Jan 2015)

Not so fast... Winter 2025-2026 forecast from NOAA. See maps, snow explanation. Winter is coming − but how cold is it going to be? Federal forecasters from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center gave us their answer Oct. 16 in their annual winter outlook. According to the forecast, a warmer-than-average winter is most likely across the southern tier of the nation, as well as in California and along much of the East Coast and Florida. Colder-than-normal conditions are expected in the Pacific Northwest and across the upper Midwest. As for snow and rain, the northern Rockies and Great Lakes region are most likely to see plenty of precipitation this winter, the Climate Prediction Center said. However, a drier-than-average winter is expected along the nation's southern tier, especially in the Southeast. (snip) Gottschalck said that warmer-than-normal temperatures are most likely for California, the southern Great Basin, the southern Rockies, the Southwest eastward to Texas, the Southeast and the coastal mid-Atlantic.(snip) ((but Accuweather dissents:)) AccuWeather also released its winter forecast earlier in October, and the private forecaster said that a "bookend winter" is on tap for the central and eastern U.S., with the biggest storms expected around the opening and the final weeks of the season. "It can be an intense stormy winter for areas of the country, particularly across the Midwest, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, Northeast and parts of the mid-Atlantic," AccuWeather lead long-range meteorologist Paul Pastelok said. (snip)

One year ago today we had a healthy dump above 1,500ft. Tied for earliest 12” depth at the summit stake at 3,800ft. 10” at 3,000ft.

Seeing as some of you spend a lot of time engaged in the ongoing monitoring/analysis and application of ENSO this that and the other ... this and studies like this may be of interest to y'all https://phys.org/news/2025-10-climate-whiplash-effects-due-rapidly.html ( forward, https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-64619-0 ) ...In the case of this study above, immediately "precipitates" ( haha) the implication of losing predictive skill - particularly in deference to long lead seasonal outlooks where ENSO is factored, it really severely hinders that usefulness.

Tropical isn't really a high knowledgeable area of mine, but I thought coming into the season it wasn't going to be a hyperactive season just going off the basics. I think sometimes with this advance in technology and models there is too much infatuation with models and their outputs. Reading the seasonal outlooks from NOAA/Colorado, they always mention how simulations are ran hundreds or thousands of times...sometimes you just have to use the basics and knowledge.

Clarksville and Layhill, both shallow sites, reached 36. Only briefly though.

NOAA has spoken

What’s wrong with you

This is one heck of a front, dynamics look great, just need moisture.

https://phys.org/news/2025-10-climate-uk-2c.html

Wow! You think someone would tell me if these things are happening but I find out from here. Thanks for forwarding on!

Pretty sure the record is closer to mattingly or jordan….

Well it was precipitating. The airport ASOS had a brief period of reported snow between the rain obs. The temp was around 37-38 at the time. My skepticism was whether or not it was actually snow of if was just cold rain and the instrumentation was reporting snow in error. Sometimes they do that with marginal temps and light precip. Vis only got down to 8-9 miles too.

Seven!

SPC is monitoring Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Sunday/Day 4 and Monday/Day 5... A large-scale mid-level trough and an associated cold front are forecast to move through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Sunday. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across the central Gulf Coast states and Tennessee Valley at the start of the period. This convection should have a negative impact on instability across the much of the moist sector during the day. In areas that are not impacted, weak instability is forecast to develop ahead of the front from Georgia and the Carolinas into the central Appalachians. The instability combined with strong large-scale ascent and moderate to strong deep-layer shear will likely result in a severe threat. A potential for wind damage and a few tornadoes will be possible. At this time, uncertainty is substantial as to exactly where the greatest severe potential will occur. As new runs come in, an upgrade to Slight may be needed. A mid-level low is forecast to move across the Northeast on Monday, as the associated trough moves into the western Atlantic. Thunderstorms with an isolated severe threat will be possible in parts of southern New England during the late morning and early afternoon before the front moves offshore.

As I showed yesterday, seasons with no H hits on the Conus have shown no notable signal one way or the other for the subsequent winter temperatures. What about the other extreme, winters after seasons with 3+ Conus H hits since 1950? 17 winters: 2024-5, 2020-1, 2017-8, 2008-9, 2005-6, 2004-5, 1999-00, 1998-9, 1989-90, 1985-6, 1979-80, 1971-2, 1964-5, 1959-60, 1954-5, 1953-4, and 1950-1. Here’s their average using climo of 1951-2010: slightly mild but that’s likely a little too warm considering that 3 are post-2010 What about winters after seasons right at the 2 Conus H hit average since 1950? 13 winters: 2022-3, 2021-2, 2019-20, 2018-9, 2016-7, 2012-3, 2003-4, 1996-7, 1995-6, 1986-7, 1966-7, 1960-1, and 1955-6. Here’s their average using climo of 1981-2010: mainly slightly warm to near normal but I’d rather call it near normal overall considering that 1981-2010 climo is slightly too cool being that 6 of the 13 are post-2010 and only 3 are pre-1981 —————— Also, maps for winters following the 29 seasons with exactly one Conus H hit came out right at normal everywhere. ———————— So, to summarize the maps for winters following Conus H seasons with 3+, 2, 1, and 0, the differences are pretty small. Thus there’s little signal one way or the other for winter temperatures based on the # of US conus H hits of the prior season.

And sort of the opposite to a little dry air entrainment in a hurricane, one moist or liquid ppffffffffftttttttttttt can throw off the whole thing.

There are echoes overhead there, and it's at 47.3° lat. and 985' asl. Their average date for first flakes is probably about now. (Unfortunately, the airport apparently doesn't report snow.)