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Yeah it’s not looking good. I have my peak season forecast due tomorrow and I’m still not sure which direction I’ll go in.

Definitely wrapping up shear. Winds have responded on the last leg of recon, more supportive of a borderline cat 2.

Two threads, same dumb comment. Take the Dad jokes elsewhere. .

For your granddaughter: ……. “comhghairdeas o’ chroi’” ….. as always …

Posting for others to see. I know it’s there and that every system is different, but Erin was able to get past SAL and develop. Even this wave has convective activity. But the 12z GEFS signal declined near the Antilles too. Maybe it doesn’t develop, or maybe it’s a late developer. I lean toward the latter at this point, with the SW Atlantic being more favorable perhaps.

RFK making sure they'll always be shitty now.

I also wonder if environment in the wake of Erin will be a bit too hostile for the follow up wave? Or at the very least wind shear may be unfavorable...GFS doesn't look great in this department.

Going to Breckenridge first week of Feb

Airing out a couple jackets today. Getting ready for the "freezing" blast of possible upper 40's next Monday night in August! Bring it! lol

There is a big Saharan air layer out there

Dry month here so far. 0.48" with not much on the table going forward. Glad July was very wet.

If your able, edit photos in Paint on your desktop. I change them to GIF, and, if need be, reduce their size. Helps a lot.

Welcome to the world little one and congratulations to you and the family Rob. Great news!

We need a vax for our winters now

miami or bust

miami or bust

Labor Day chill

That's a good deal for NYC Metro folks.

EWR: 96 (2002) NYC: 94 (2002) LGA: 94 (1966) JFK: 90 (2009) Lows: EWR: 54 (1958) NYC: 55 (1924) LGA: 59 (1979) JFK: 53 (1963) Historical: 1559: Pensacola, Florida: First recorded hurricane in US history hits Pensacola area driving five Spanish ships ashore in Pensacola Harbor. (Ref. WxDoctor) 1788 - A small but powerful hurricane inflicted great havoc upon forests along a narrow track from New Jersey to Maine. A similar storm track today would cause extreme disaster in the now populated area. (David Ludlum) 1890 - An estimated F3 tornado hit South Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania. About 400 buildings were destroyed in the industrial and more impoverished residential section of town. The death toll was 16 and damage was estimated at $400,000. 1896: The famous Cottage City (Oak Bluffs) waterspout occurred off Martha's Vineyard, Massachusetts. The vortex was 3,600 feet high, formed three times, and was well photographed. 1935: Bangor, ME soared to 104° for their all-time record high temperature. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1939: An F2 tornado associated with a hurricane moved over the 10-mi-wide estuary of the Potomac River. It sank a boat offshore Reedville, VA, drowning a man; another person was killed between Scotland and Dameron, MD. (Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA) 1939: Tuckerton registered New Jersey’s maximum 24 hour precipitation record as 14.82 inches of rain fell on the 19th and 20th. (Ref. Hurricane Map and NWS Monthly Weather Review ) 1955: Devastating floods affect much of New England on the 18th and 19th as Hurricane Diane give record breaking rains. Boston, Massachusetts had 8.40 inches in 24 hours, greatest ever on Boston's records. Rains from Tropical Storm Diane fell on already saturated ground from Tropical Storm Connie a week before. Westfield, MA recorded 18.15 inches in 24 hours, to set a state record, while the 24-hour precipitation record for CT was set at Burlington with 12.77 inches. At one point, over 40% of Worcester, MA was underwater. Woonsocket, RI was hit hard as the Blackstone River, normally only 70 feet wide, swelled to over 1.5 miles in width. 82 people died and damage topped $800 millions dollars.(Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events) (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1969 - 'Never say die' Camille let loose a cloudburst in Virginia resulting in flash floods and landslides which killed 151 persons and cause 140 million dollars damage. Massies Hill VA received 27 inches of rain. (David Ludlum) 1979: Severe weather and very heavy rains were an unwelcome visitor to parts of northeast Nebraska from this date through the 20th. Hail up to one inch in diameter damaged crops in a strip from 6 miles south of Pilger, NE through Wisner and Pender affecting Stanton, Thurston and Cuming Counties. But probably the most remarkable event occurred in Dixon County where 6 to nearly 10 inches of rain fell in just four hours. This rainfall caused the Iowa Creek to exceed its banks causing extensive flash flooding of homes and businesses in Ponca. The rushing water washed out crops, tore trees from the creek bed and washed out 15 bridges in the county. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1986 - The temperature at San Antonio, TX, soared to an all-time record high of 108 degrees. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987) 1987 - Thunderstorms moving out of southeastern Nebraska spread severe weather into eastern Kansas and western Missouri during the day. Thunderstorms in Nebraska produced hail three inches in diameter at Albion, and high winds which downed a large tent at Waterloo injuring a dozen persons. Thunderstorms in Kansas produced baseball size hail northwest of Topeka, and wind gusts to 80 mph at Fulton. Ten persons were injured in a thunderstorm at Princeton KS, and damage to crops in southern Franklin County KS was estimated at 3.5 million dollars. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Raleigh, NC, reported a record hot temperature reading of 103 degrees. Afternoon thunderstorms in Oklahoma produced wind gusts to 75 mph in southern Pittsburgh County. Thunderstorms in Indiana produced 4.50 inches of rain at Morgantown. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Early morning thunderstorms deluged southeastern Delaware with six to ten inches of rain in four to six hours, with local reports of 13 to 20 inches of rain. Twenty-six major roads were closed or damaged, and fourteen bridges were washed out. Flooding caused nearly four million dollars damage to local businesses. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1991: Hurricane Bob made landfall at Newport, RI with maximum sustained winds of 90 mph with gusts to 105 mph. Then the cyclone made a final landfall as a tropical storm at Rockland, ME. Winds reached 80 mph gusting 110 mph at the New Bedford Hurricane Barrier and gusts reached 143 mph at Westport Point, MA, 125 mph at Block Island, RI, 100 mph at Cape Cod, MA and 93 mph at Blue Hill, ME. The storm surge at Upper Buzzards Bay reached 15 feet. 7.84 inches of rain fell in 24 hours at Portland, ME, their wettest 24 hour period on record. Power was out to 2.1 million homes and businesses and damage totaled $1.5 billion dollars. 17 people died. Bob was the worst hurricane in the northeast since Hurricane Donna in 1960. Hurricane Bob did $780 million in damage and a long period of lost power in New England.Bob's Storm Track - Weather Underground (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1991: Strong thunderstorms affected portions of north central and east central South Dakota. In Dewey County, near Ridgeview, a thunderstorm produced about five inches of rain, very strong winds, and hail. The winds blew over three grain bins, one of which struck a house causing considerable damage. Skirting was blown from several mobile homes and shingles were torn from many houses. The storms also produced tremendous amounts of lightning. The Civil Defense Director for Codington County reported that the lightning was so frequent and vivid that he drove for 10 minutes without needing his headlights. At one point a lightning strike occurred within 10 feet of his car. The strike splattered mud onto his vehicle, drained his battery, and caused problems with the car's electrical system. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1992: Tropical Storm Andrew was becoming disorganized as it was being affected by upper level wind shear. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2003: Las Vegas, Nevada: A sudden deluge surprises Las Vegas, dumping 3 inches of rain in 90 minutes, severely flooding the city's northwest sector, knocking out power to thousands, and leaving motorists stranded atop their cars. (Ref. WxDoctor) 2007: Rainfall and flooding of historic proportions struck parts of the Upper Mississippi River Valley continuing into the next day. Rainfall in excess of 10 to 12 inches fell in some areas, with the main swath of heaviest rain centered along a line from Claremont and Rochester, MN to La Crosse, Viroqua and Muscoda, WI. 24 hour rainfall records were set in the following locations: Hokah, MN: 15.10 inches, Viroqua, WI: 9.23 inches, La Crescent, MN: 7.95 inches, Gays Mills, WI: 7.41 inches, The Hokah total also set the 24-hour rainfall record for the entire state of Minnesota. In addition, due to the training nature of the storms, the heavy rain persisted for hour after hour, with rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour common. Flood of records were recorded at the Middle Fork Whitewater River at Whitewater State Park, MN. Many other sites had river crest within the top 5 record crest. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

Always a bit jarring to see what is allowed to be posted politically in the main threads (in this case, the Erin thread). I do appreciate the moderation in this subforum.

Big burst of convection over the center in the past hour. Lets see if it can wrap back around.

I’d rather 5 more tick illnesses vs another example of the last 3 winters.

Get well soon, Scooter. Months of 55F and grey skies await.

it's going to jump around until go time. need to see the href when it's in range

Icon north. Rgem heavier south