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As far as @paweather goes, barely anyone even wished the guy well. To make matters even worse our most miserable member that can't even keep a woman, his home, or his sobriety decided to say good riddance and then went on to say how people like, pa weather, we're ruining the forum for him. I mean, what kind of low life piece of s*** would ever post something like that right after someone announces that they have cancer ? And even worse, what class of assholes would let a comment like that even fly and not call it out ? I don't try to act like I like people here because I don't and it's because of situations just like that I will never have any respect for most of our members and i'm not going to pretend to live in a fake little world where I have respect for people I don't like either. I wish we still had all of our members regardless of their politics unlike several of you sick mother fuckers. Several of you guys here put your entertainment and your politics above a human being with a potentially fatal disease and you left your receipts. If you want to argue about it I'll post your receipts.

at 12:30am EDT, all of BOS, NYC (from the midnight ob), PHL, and DCA have the exact same temp: 50F. pretty interesting lol.

It's also 50F at my house in NW. Pretty cool lol.

it's currently 50F at all 4 major northeast city airports: - BOS, NYC, PHL, DCA (BWI was 50 at the midnight ob but just dropped to 49, we can still count it IMO).

The NOAA winter forecast came out today, and not surprisingly, it is essentially copy/paste La Nina. AN slightly favored for the Eastern Valley, Western 2/3rds of the forum, equal chances/near normal. BN Pac NW to Great Lakes. As noted, weak Ninas are somewhat less likely to follow "typical" Nina patterns. That could mean AN for the whole forum, BN for it etc.

guess whos back back again

I think we can squeeze out a couple inches of rain this weekend.

More ridging in western Canada please and thank you.

Done.

I also miss @Bubbler86 and hope he makes it back. He left when the thread got weird for a few weeks but that was curds year ago or so. His winter love and reporting was always exciting to read.

I knew what his last post said. I haven't gotten it out of my mind since he posted. Horribly sad.

According to a lot of prognosticators in the 1990s, 2000s, and 2010s, we passed the point of no return quite awhile ago.

Now at 4.34" for the month. Crushing the October record.

March has a high -PNA/-NAO and +PNA/+NAO correlation.. wedges the SE ridge to near neutral. This is definitely a pattern though.. the lack of benchmark storms is because 80% of our Winter months have been -PNA since 2018 But there is a strong, strong correlation with US Temps and the SOI pre-1948. I suggest you check it out. I was only calling what I saw as SE ridge/NW trough -PNA, without looking at the North Pacific H5 (no data before 1948). It is possible the total composite of the 1948-2020 dataset is not big enough, if that is possible. Late 1800s - 1950, the SOI indicating a La Nina/El Nino was strongly correlated to Winter US Temperatures.

From what I can see, no relevance for Dec, Feb, Mar for East Coast temps where it snows / where nor'easters are important. For the alarmists out there you can make the case whatever importance that was there in January is also rapidly diminishing - almost all of the East Coast in the 10+ inch avg snowfall climo zone is now in the borderline irrelevant correlation zone. The deeper blue zone is way south of where it is on the longer term map...

I just read his last post from back in March and it damn near brought a tear to me eye. Sadly, I fear he may no longer be with us. Very much hope to be wrong.

PNA is a big deal in January The biggest thing with PNA is its high sea-level pressure correlation on the coast, about +0.5. That's our benchmark storm or not. But yeah, in some other Winter months especially December and March the PNA correlation nears 0. EPO is by far the greatest pattern for temps in the NE 1/2 of the US. I was looking at SOI matches to SE ridge/NW trough before 1948, since that's when the global climate maps started, and it's a strong SE ridge/NW trough correlation with SOI pre-1948.

I've never understood the fixation with the PNA for you guys - its completely irrelevant for temps for the parts of the East where snow is heavily dependent on exact temps in big events. Storms and precip and patterns - sure. But who cares if you get storms if you can't determine the temp pattern from it? Its a pattern that matters for the NW and SE US, for temps in winter not the NE and SW US. These maps by the way show r, not r-squared. So anything below the 0.3-0.5 even for a long period of time is inherently unreliable. So I agree on the ENSO --> PNA relationship, but the point still stands - its not a big deal for the East where you guys live for temps in winter. Using Enso to predict PNA state is fine I guess but it just doesn't tell you much in the East in winter and hasn't ever really.

That would be a nice dumping in January.

I don't know if I trust the validity of that graph to be honest.. it looks like the greatest bunch is weighted toward +NAO/+AO and DC is 39N latitude.. counter-intuitive. +NAO's are wetter. There is more precip, but I think a place so sensitive to the freezing point would be heavily weighted toward -NAO/-AO periods.. I know during my lifetime it hasn't snowed a lot when the NAO and AO have been positive. Pacific overwhelms the Atlantic though. Anomaly-wise W->E is actually greater than N->S. I've found the New Foundland warm/cold pool has a strong correlation with the Winter NAO in the preceding May-Sept, but not so much the day of. Maybe it has something to do with subsurface currents.

Going back to the 1800s, the SOI has a strong correlation with Winter PNA state https://data.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscillationIndex/SOIDataFiles/MonthlySOIPhase1887-1989Base.txt

We agree that it’s a large adjustment. Unfortunately, I don’t have the specific details.

Flipped our driveway canopy tent over this afternoon. Luckily the damage was limited to some ductape patches.

Always climo. That keeps them 'safe'...wink...