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development has occurred. we'll see how it trends the remainder of the night and into the morning. the bigger issue may end up being upstream, actually. most guidance is doing a fairly bad job regarding the evolution of things across the dakotas and vicinity. most guidance suggested that mcs formation would come from supercells tracking across the dakotas this evening and tonight, paired with additional development as well. not only should that scenario already have been unfolding by now, but it seems to be out the window based on evolution in reality over the past few hours. if this big mcs is going to come to fruition, it'll have to be from an entirely different process than most guidance had shown.
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Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to donsutherland1's topic in Climate Change
Year 2 has lower correlation numbers, but is still generally mild -
Central PA Summer 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Yardstickgozinya replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
This is actually pretty wild looking.I mean, hopefully, everything's okay out there.We got cell starting to form within the conglomerate of anvils, I mean, this thing looks like an epic rain maker If i've ever seen one. -
^Here's some much needed advice from the members of this sub^
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I really don’t know what to say guys, trends are quite positive for the front range. Crawling back from a drought in the western states is exactly that, crawling. Anyways here is the QPF forecast thru Sunday. Euro is somewhat similar but about half of the amounts.
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
GaWx replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
The latest 10 day mean of CFSv2 op runs for JFM is even colder than what had very briefly just become the coldest ever CFSv2 10 day JFM mean that I had ever seen, which I posted last night! It has KATL at -3C/-5.4F vs the 1991-2020 mean. That’s 44F. For reference: since 1980 only one JFM has been 45F or lower: 2010’s 43F! -
Central PA Summer 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Yardstickgozinya replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
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I think some or many of these WU stations are not installed in favorable areas of a property to get accurate readings for some attached individual instruments . I would not buy one because the only favorable area on my property is on top of my roof - and my roof climbing days ended years ago. Used to have a station there for 20 plus years until Labor Day 1998 - the day the Tornado ripped it off my roof along with my Chimney.
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Augdewst 2026: Summer's Last Stand
CT Valley Snowman replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
Toss it. No support. -
Augdewst 2026: Summer's Last Stand
HIPPYVALLEY replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
Or on top of Mt Toby in W MA! -
- Today
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agreed - I also think SPC issued that Severe Watch Monday into NJ just to be safe rather than sorry . Looking further down the road if that Bermuda HP sticks around and gets into a favorable position for east coast tropical trouble - the ingredients are showing up in the Atlantic
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i'm at a friend's in georgetown and i have never seen this many mosquitoes in my entire life
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I think he left because he was mad about being 5 posted. I was glad to see Liberty finally return last week. He said it was only a temporary return, but I told him that I hope he stays. 5 posts per day is certainly enough to be a strong contributor here. He's still posting so it seems as if he has decided to stay -- hopefully that's the case.
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Only 0.01" here today. I was surprised when they issued the watch for us today. It looks like isolated storms tomorrow afternoon. I would think that SPC should upgrade us to a marginal risk for tomorrow.
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Followed the forum for a while, just recently logged on. What’s the profile picture? Is it you, it’s not doing any favors
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Augdewst 2026: Summer's Last Stand
H2Otown_WX replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
00z NAM went apeshit for tomorrow night and Wednesday. Hope it's wrong... -
85 with 55-60 dews. Same lovely Aug wx here too.
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0.0
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Yeah I was right somehow managed only 0.11.... Up to 4.30 now since late May...
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86 for the high. DP held between 58-61 which made for a nice day.
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I'm wondering about that and also in the 2:43 PM IWX AFD they mentioned signs of the boundry pushing south into central Indiana tomorrow.
