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EURO hitting squalls hard too

28 / 12 cloudy. In a 2 day turn around the latest forecasts have spun a gentler period to one that transfers to a warmer one. We'll see if the current Dec and ate Nov trend continues to see any pronounced warmup short and muted once here and more focused south and wetst. Otherwise once to around the 7th its near to above normal. 12/31 - 1/5 : Colder than normal - potential light snow with reinforcing clippers 12/31 , 1/2-1/3 1/6 - 1 / 11 : Near normal - warmer 1/12 - beyond : ridge into the east - warmer

Agreed. And yes, when we do have/get 99% of the ingredients together, we can’t seem to get the oven turned on so to speak. Like Will just said(and I’ve been saying it too) it’s very reminiscent of the mid to late 80’s-the early 90’s(92). Nothing wants to gel(major that is)for our area lately. Anyway, we roll the dice.

I have been here going on 12 years now, I have NEVER seen Manchester as busy as it was yesterday, not even Columbus Day, etc. Xmas and New years weeks are normally busy, I don't know what to make of it. Maybe the cold and wind scared a lot of folks away from the mountains yesterday? Or just in general its been cold and snowy, so more peeps vacationing this week? It was strange, lots of folks commenting about locally too.

HRRR still looking like coating to 1" on snow tonight , then an impressive squall line around sunrise dropping another coating to 1" .. SE New England still favored for more tonight especially cape and eastern maine

Hrrr with a low over BTV lol. But Seymour is right, it has a line of squalls verbatim. Otherwise kind of meh outside SE areas.

Yea that’s after any warm up. That probably would work verbatim. However every time we have seen that something shits the bed.

To my untrained eye, That isn’t a bad look there. I mean it is 14-15 days away, so we know the deal. But verbatim that looks pretty decent, and getting into peak climo.

Per recent verification scores, it's a tad concerning the 0z GFS is more pro-cold than the 0z Euro, granted one run doesn't make a forecast. I imagine models are picking up on a transient warm spell before the hammer drop. As Carver noted last week, it just takes a few members to skew the batch. Still scratching my head why CPC is so warm for in their extended outlooks. Also, 'tis interesting amidst the flip-flopping, there are signs a +TNH pattern may develop. That in tandem with a -EPO can work for most of the forum but given the SE ridge pumping that signal can induce, I prefer the 'old school' -NAO/-AO being a more dominant driver. At least the southern jet looks cooperative. Preferably, I like average to slightly below average precip for January/February given what that can imply. I recall past Nina winters that went super zonal in January. Doesn't look that way this go-around.

Nice! Even a broken clock is right twice

Overperformed overnight with this initial disturbance. I drove out to Morgantown at 630a for a workout class at Orangetheory which wasn’t the best idea. White knuckle driving the whole way on 68. Roads were not in good shape between the falling and blowing snow. We had about 1.5” when I left the house, time to head back.

December will come to a close today with 26 days of snow cover out of 31. Temperatures will average about 3.0° below the new high normal, and snow fall for the month will close with 17 inches. Other than Christmas being barely white the month closes as a sold A-. A white Christmas like last year, with a 4-5 inch snowpack on the ground Christmas morning, would have made it an A.

GEFS and AI GEFS both showing cold around the 12th, while the EPS is warm

1.5"

Maybe an 8-14” Leon event visits?

There is snow on the beach at OCMD this am.....pull up a webcam!

I’ve had one double digit storm (and it was barely double digits) since Feb 2022. This truly feels like that 1988-1992 stretch except warmer (at least prior to last winter) and not quite as paltry on seasonal snow totals here…but close enough. Really could use a big storm to break the drought.

Maybe we risk some cutters, but I’m only interested in big ticket items.

Monday doesn’t look that interesting unless northern stream digs a little more for a stronger IVT. Otherwise prob flurries or C-1”.

In their defense, the southern plains ridge started as a SE ridge in the distant LR as well before trending more west. Difference is, it seems the ens are trying to flush the cold in eastern Canada this time. I would roll with this…in the interior at least.

3 days in a row. yeah...my wires dont alwasy touch. My cheeks look like santas after his annual trek round the world. Takin today off. Lotsa miles on my boots and I'm not compainin. Glad that I can do it. Today was total gym and ab roller (done), so now headed into work for a couple hours (even though I'm technically "off"). To all my pals here, happy NYE, and all the best in the New Year.

Tonight’s is 2 -4 there . Another 2-4 Monday.. then we’ll see mid week . Hopefully you have a Ring so you can watch it vicariously

Agreed. Right now the south East Ridge has been pushed back quite a bit so any storm that comes towards our area would likely not be interfered by that ridge and we would not run the risk of the storm being amplified too much and cutting to our west. Instead, our current problem is that we don’t have enough amplification because the northern stream is just flowing too fast and cannot phase with the southern stream in time to lead to a large coastal storm. However, it looks to be towards mid month that there is a shake up in the Pacific, which will push the mild air in the west and central US over the east US briefly. Then afterwards we will appear to be in a more of a colder regime similar to what we are in now but this time the cold will be more widespread across the US. While that will likely increase the chances for snow because our snow storms will have already been formed to our west and traverse across the US, we do run the risk of a larger southeast Ridge, which would lead to potential over amplification and temperature issues during those storms. So for now, we have the cold, but we don’t have the snow, and in a few weeks it’s looking like we might have the cold, but we have issues with the southeast Ridge, which will of course affect our chances for snow as well. Either way, we need a big shake up in the Pacific because most of the US is snapping back to warm and dry for the foreseeable future, which doesn’t go well for our chances either.

I’ll be fine missing an inch. Looks quiet to me.

Snow tonight, snow Sunday night/ Monday and snow Jan 6. Wouldn’t call that quiet. You’ll miss a few snowfalls