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Hard to think the cold up north will retreat that fast, but it's probably representative of a furthest north ensemble members.

Cautiously optimistic about the next big chance. Its Ops vs AI models right now. Still a lot of time and details to hammer out

Refreshing -8 outside. Lots of drifting overnight.

Correct me if I’m wrong, but the suppressed look on the GFS is less to do with anomalous strength of that high (it doesn’t seem that terribly strong) and more to do with the energy not ejecting from around the Baja. Definitely take your point regarding how the AI models may not “want” to reflect the more extreme potential in the atmosphere, though.

Even non AI guidance has moved north. It’s still a whiff, but I like where we sit for this one. Btw how much snow did you end up getting?

Deep deep winter https://imgur.com/a/1IisTgl#uYRexFn https://imgur.com/a/1IisTgl#f4JBPIg

What sucks: most AI guidance being an ice storm What doesn’t suck: Google DeepMind (#1 model), says WNC gets Dec 2018 redo

Both of these maps accurately depicts Chattanooga 95% of the time when there is a good snow in Tennessee. Not complaining, just stating facts. We have to have 100% perfect conditions for a good snow here. Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

I started at 7 years old.

Serious storm potential and we're only 5-6 days out!

I don't think it was meant for them to be successful, unless he's thinking his drought continues.

the differences are really easy to detect in the mid range. the AI versions have less cold exertion (less deep layer total mechanics therein), such that a vague S/stream wash runs up farther N as a wave/series/overrunning around the 25th. the standard versions preclude that from taking place because as they depict, an overbearing polar-arctic branch jams a confluence to an usually deep latitude across the conus ... utterly suppressive. Which is right? the AIs would get cold but seasonally so, then a durational ( which is hard to do in a fast footprint but given the flow orientation, about the only way to do it is this shallow azimuth rise coming E) multi regional winter event. the standard versions would plummet the NP/Lakes, with an somewhat attenuated eventual arrival here, but dry.

If everyone (a reminder to myself as well) could try and put your posts in the context of a location that will help make the discussion clearer. What is good for southern VA is not necessarily good for northern GA

It’s on WxBell - don’t know if it’s available unpaid anywhere. This is prob the “money” frame but 850s are toasted. Surface is more than cold, though.

Apparently, there are some mets here who are having trouble letting go of the buggy whip models.

Why congratulate 5 days before a Storm?

This is the most nerve racking part of the hobby, we’re at that day 6 range with a potential MECS in the cards. Been years since we had a potential event like this. Here, we, go .

It's on WxBELL.

p rough, most of the qpf over n il is the mid week duster so things about to get extra north dakota mode later this week

2.5 and still snowing at pit2

Where do we get it, if you have a link? Ty

Speaking through a NC lens mostly: I think at this point I feel pretty confident in verifying some sort of winter storm across the region this weekend but man are the red flags apparent. AI models have been outperforming the globals and to no surprise (or with our luck), of course they’re north with the coldest air and snow as the warm nose rages during the event. I’m not sold on that being the final solution, but if we get into tonight/tomorrow morning and it’s looking the same, we might be screwed. The AI models have been very locked in from day 4/5 on this winter. They have struggled a bit with a warm bias but generally, they nail the footprint in the medium-short range. I still think at worst, this is a sleet fest for most of the state. Last thought: for someone this will be an ice storm for the ages. Idc if the HP is over upstate NY, Ottawa, Iowa, whatever. It’s going to be somewhere in a favorable position and it’s going to be strong. This favors an abnormally large area of mixed precip and stupidly low temps being fed by a steady pump of cold, dry air. Remember, freezing rain is self limited if the cad is in-situ, but not when it’s an anchored HP to the north. Latent heat release can’t compete with that much caa. We’re talking nightmare type of stuff. Sometimes it helps if the precip is heavy, but in the mid 20s, that won’t matter either.

Gonna be a long week, ain’t it? 13F

This is what I’m worried about Buckeye. EPS and Canadian Emsembles are really hinting at this being a very good possibility with the American on an island that pushes the ridge out yielding colder upper levels. I would prefer no precipitation if a crippling ice storm were to hit large portions of the Carolinas.

It's the same old story.