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I’m not worried about the low being stout because it’s going to need to be to survive the strong cold high pushing down on it

My mom group chat has been asking me all day what’s going to happen lol

Judging by the synoptic presentation and QPF expansion, you’re dead on there. Good run from the Icon FWIW.

It probably would of not been as big of hit compared to 12z. The northern stream was outracing the southern stream on this run. But it's the Icon so who really cares that much lol.

15 to 20 inches of Snow here in Lee County from that one.

Quick someone crank up the DGEX!

Yeah. That has been sneaky

One other fail mode to watch for- if this is a miller B and there is a transfer to the coast there will likely be a dry slot that sets up during the process

12z "traditional" Euro EPS for DCA. Wow.

That’s like Midnight Yell for this board. .

The 12z "traditional" Euro EPS really upped the ante for Philly. Several double digit hits, and only a few duds (less than 3"). Out of 50 members, I only count 11% (6 members) with less than 3" of snow. Everything else is warning level or better. Again, what a signal from Dr. No at this range.

I enjoy it but its more so just checking things. As long as you dont get emotionally invested in every model its fine. It used to piss me off seeing the models changing every run and "being fringed". Now its like meh just less to shovel.

This storm looking primed for a NW trend IMO. Also, @SnowenOutThere should make his own Avengers. Young ones, assemble!

18z ICON likely would've been a foot plus from I-70 south if it ran further.

I cant get over how they spit out amounts and predictions 5 days in advance as IMO its a joke,,,,,,here is what a quick search said for my area Sunday and Sunday nite = Sunday Day -Watching a potential winter storm. Cloudy with snow. High 12F. Winds NNE at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 70%. 3 to 5 inches of snow expected. Sunday Night 11° Watching a potential winter storm. Occasional snow showers. Low 11F. Winds N at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 60%. Snow accumulating 1 to 3 inches.

I mean..sounds like what we have known. Initial Thump of snow then a mix. Nothing new

The moms at the bus stop this afternoon were giving it the old "They're saying maybe we get 4" maybe we get 24! They're leaving themselves a loooooot of wiggle room...really hedging their bets!" Things is that they all know me and know that I'm a weather nerd and they often ask me for updates, but they just can't help themselves when they get into their gaggles. <ends seemingly, but not really, misogynistic rant> Fuck's sake...

Man I miss his posts…. .

Putting this in banter (because it's stupid) but we are about to witness the Most Important UKMET Run of All Time

I got to know all the DC Tv Mets and Bob was the most distant and not a snow lover. Gary Shore, Doug Hill Topper Shutt Tony Pann Tom Kieran. Clay Anderson and others mostly liked snow and were conversant

This is the stage in tracking where initial expectations can be set. If you live north of Va line your expectation should be all snow and possibly heavy amounts. For most of NC chances are high you mix at some point so determining timing, degree of mixing, and if you go all the way to ZR will be critical. For SC and Georgia this looks like a ZR storm. Maybe the upstate can score on the initial WAA or the wedge is cold enough for sleet. Worried about further north trends with thermals. I’ve seen models throw out 6-8 hour thumps of snow just for NAM to come in and cut that time in a third. Something to watch. Those are my thoughts at this point

Posting this for our upper Delmarva, northern MD folks. The 12z "traditional" Euro EPS really upped the ante for Philly. Several double digit hits, and only a few duds (less than 3"). Out of 50 members, I only count 11% (6 members) with less than 3" of snow. Everything else is warning level or better. Again, what a signal from Dr. No at this range.

This genuinely gives me chills. I'm such a sicko

18z NAM and RGEM look good here tomorrow night

@Solution Man‘s analogy still holds strong, lotta young ones.